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Post by Merseymike on May 10, 2021 8:58:34 GMT
The figures display that its half and half for Lab and Con, so it may all depend if the Lib and Green vote is likely to vote tactically - I think its fair to assume that those who backed the Tories voted Tory given they are on a high.
Oh - and Labour must not choose someone who was high profile remain in the Williams mould. Mike Wood was always a Lexiteer, interestingly.
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Post by Merseymike on May 10, 2021 9:08:30 GMT
Batley & Spen is estimated to have voted 60% Leave so less Brexity than Hartlepool by quite a bit. True, and Asian voters were by no means all remainers |
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Post by elinorhelyn on May 10, 2021 9:20:40 GMT
Batley & Spen is estimated to have voted 60% Leave so less Brexity than Hartlepool by quite a bit. True, and Asian voters were by no means all remainers Yes but are still more likely to remain loyal to Labour, as they probably would of done so to keep the seat Labour in '19 |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2021 9:21:35 GMT
Hopefully we get a John Harris Anywhere but Westminster segment from here!
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Post by Merseymike on May 10, 2021 9:30:40 GMT
True, and Asian voters were by no means all remainers Yes but are still more likely to remain loyal to Labour, as they probably would of done so to keep the seat Labour in '19 I agree. So it makes even less sense to select a high profile remainiac. Many of us are like me. Voted remain, but accepted the outcome of the referendum and would have preferred a deal. In fact, we would have voted for May's deal if push came to shove. I happen to know that was the view of most of the Shadow Cabinet at the time, but not most of the PLP, nor the Labour party outside parliament. |
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hengo
Conservative
Posts: 1,689
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Post by hengo on May 10, 2021 9:39:55 GMT
It’s not a good thing that people assume that the Asian vote is guaranteed for Labour. That is part of what is driving the “ white vote” to feel inclined to vote Conservative. Tribalism isn’t just about class. And it’s no good calling the one racism while being complacent about the other.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 10, 2021 9:54:27 GMT
Batley & Spen is estimated to have voted 60% Leave so less Brexity than Hartlepool by quite a bit. True, and Asian voters were by no means all remainers Very true!  |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on May 10, 2021 10:13:38 GMT
Someone is going to dig up Jo Cox's grave again and start a really grim event of the culture war, and everyone will lose as a result. Even if all the parties avoid turning it into a battleground, some hack in the press will raise it for clickbait's sake. I already feel sorry for the constituents. It is the fifth anniversary of her killing next month, that is surely not going to go unnoticed locally. |
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johng
Labour
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Member is Online
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Post by johng on May 10, 2021 10:29:59 GMT
Changes with 2016. This is going to be a tough one.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on May 10, 2021 10:36:33 GMT
Figures are pretty much what you would expect, UKIP vote mostly going Tory plus a more general swing to them since 2016.
One difference with Hartlepool, of course, is that the Tories won't have an incredibly popular regional mayor to win votes for them this time!
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Post by No Offence Alan on May 10, 2021 10:47:13 GMT
Someone is going to dig up Jo Cox's grave again and start a really grim event of the culture war, and everyone will lose as a result. Even if all the parties avoid turning it into a battleground, some hack in the press will raise it for clickbait's sake. I already feel sorry for the constituents. It is the fifth anniversary of her killing next month, that is surely not going to go unnoticed locally. And her replacement, nodded through virtually "nem con" in the unusual circumstances has already decided it was just a stepping stone to a bigger job. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on May 10, 2021 10:49:19 GMT
I'm not sure if that is how it will be widely perceived locally - Brabin appears to be quite well liked.
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Post by edgbaston on May 10, 2021 11:38:54 GMT
Tories will be cock a hoop, Labour deflated - I think that will be reflected in the campaign. This will surely be a factor. Who from crushed Labour is going out to campaign in the rain over the next few weeks as pubs open? That would be me  |
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Post by markgoodair on May 10, 2021 11:56:28 GMT
William Hill are offering 1/4 on the Tories and 3/1 on Labour.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 10, 2021 12:20:41 GMT
I've had a tenner on that (well 14/5 with Ladbrokes) that's a good value bet
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Post by ideal4radio on May 10, 2021 13:13:21 GMT
It’s not a good thing that people assume that the Asian vote is guaranteed for Labour. That is part of what is driving the “ white vote” to feel inclined to vote Conservative. Tribalism isn’t just about class. And it’s no good calling the one racism while being complacent about the other. That's true now in a number of places, where I suspect Labour will start to be perceived as the " Asian " party. In Pendle, all 10 of Labour's Councillors are from the Asian Community despite it numbering only around 15% of residents, and in Burnley, 10/18, with the Asian community representing only 11% or so of the population. One of Burnley's Council wards has a postal vote figure of over 30%, whereas the average for the other 14 wards is around 15% which again will reinforce certain prejudices and suspicions This doesn't bode well for " Community cohesion " , sadly ...  |
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Yorkie
Yorkshire Party
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Post by Yorkie on May 10, 2021 14:21:10 GMT
I would take Labour at 3/1. This is a weird seat that feels (for reasons I can't entirely explain) much, much more likely a Labour hold than Hartlepool ever did.
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Post by carlton43 on May 10, 2021 14:53:25 GMT
My initiaL vote in the Hartlepool poll was 'Labour Retain', but I changed to 'Conservative Gain' In the final weeks when the evidence became overwhelming.
Here, I start feeling more strongly that the position will be 'Labour Retain'. It looks a more difficult target to me with an Asian element that will aid Labour, who I have thought for some time to be identified as the 'Asian Party' or at least the 'For the Asians' party, or the 'Immigrant Friendly' party?
That of course does have at least a consequential rub off with a significant element of the White vote in tending to draw it to the Conservatives, but that will be markedly reduced if the Conservatives negative that effect by choosing an Asian candidate.
In pure politics terms it is a matter of 'do they try to attract some of the Asian vote by choosing as Asian candidate' or capitalize on being 'not Asian' and thereby securing part of one end and losing much of the other end? I am convinced that the ethnic issue does play with a significant minority of both communities and an actual majority at times.
AND Can we have a poll here please?
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Post by matureleft on May 10, 2021 14:58:04 GMT
Interesting to see when it will be called. The normal approach is to call asap, but would that be best at the moment?
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Post by Ron Swanson on May 10, 2021 15:04:48 GMT
Interesting to see when it will be called. The normal approach is to call asap, but would that be best at the moment? She’s already at the Chiltern Hundreds... If I was Labour I’d get it over and done with. If they hold great... if they get turned over Starmer will have to go. Then they’ll have a leadership election that takes about two years, as they always do. |
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