Chesham and Amersham

[andrew111]

Jun 27, 2021 11:34:19 GMT andrewp said:

Jun 27, 2021 11:28:07 GMT andrew111 said:

I have pointed it out a few times here and there, and Henley was when Tories were in opposition. So it is 100% when the Tories are in government and Lib Dems second. And even in Richmond and Epping Forest the Tory vote fell by 20%, with them well over 40% in the polls at the time (but a split centrist opposition enabled them to hold) . Tories holding C&A would have been exceptional, which is why I voted Lib Dem win..

The safest Conservative seat where the Lib Dem’s were 2nd in 2019 is Herefordshire North.  Would that be a Lib Dem gain in a BE at the moment?

3rd on that list is Christchurch.

Well, on the C&A swing yes, just. However the Green vote proved harder to squeeze than Labour in C&A, and is 9% in HN. The Green vote is harder to target than Labour

[greenchristian]

Jun 27, 2021 14:07:24 GMT andrew111 said:

Jun 27, 2021 11:34:19 GMT andrewp said:

The safest Conservative seat where the Lib Dem’s were 2nd in 2019 is Herefordshire North.  Would that be a Lib Dem gain in a BE at the moment?

3rd on that list is Christchurch.

Well, on the C&A swing yes, just. However the Green vote proved harder to squeeze than Labour in C&A, and is 9% in HN. The Green vote is harder to target than Labour

And HN is one of only a handful of constituencies where there would likely be a major Green campaign effort in the event of a by-election.

[andrew111]

Jun 27, 2021 23:45:00 GMT greenchristian said:

Jun 27, 2021 14:07:24 GMT andrew111 said:

Well, on the C&A swing yes, just. However the Green vote proved harder to squeeze than Labour in C&A, and is 9% in HN. The Green vote is harder to target than Labour

And HN is one of only a handful of constituencies where there would likely be a major Green campaign effort in the event of a by-election.

True, and less convenient for Lib Dem activists

[Chris from Brum]

Jun 28, 2021 8:12:49 GMT andrew111 said:

Jun 27, 2021 23:45:00 GMT greenchristian said:

And HN is one of only a handful of constituencies where there would likely be a major Green campaign effort in the event of a by-election.

True, and less convenient for Lib Dem activists

Beautiful part of the world.  I'd be over there like a shot.  In fact I will be over there next Sunday, we have a concert in Leominster Priory Church.  The ducking stool will not be required.

[The Bishop]

And of course, Leominster is what the seat should still be called.

[andrew111]

Jun 28, 2021 9:12:38 GMT The Bishop said:

And of course, Leominster is what the seat should still be called.

But electors should have to pronounce it properly before being allowed to vote

[Chris from Brum]

Jun 28, 2021 12:44:03 GMT andrew111 said:

Jun 28, 2021 9:12:38 GMT The Bishop said:

And of course, Leominster is what the seat should still be called.

But electors should have to pronounce it properly before being allowed to vote

Bonus points for knowing what the Welsh name for it is ...

[Deleted]

Voters voting like it's 1959 in Hartlepool but 1995 in Chesham & Amersham.

[The Bishop]

Jun 29, 2021 14:48:59 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Voters voting like it's 1959 in Hartlepool but 1995 in Chesham & Amersham.

Tories only won Hartlepool by a few hundred votes in 1959, surely 1931 is more like it.

[Deleted]

Jul 1, 2021 12:55:03 GMT The Bishop said:

Jun 29, 2021 14:48:59 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Voters voting like it's 1959 in Hartlepool but 1995 in Chesham & Amersham.

Tories only won Hartlepool by a few hundred votes in 1959, surely 1931 is more like it.

Vote share wasn't that different in (The) Hartlepool(s) in 1959 compared to 2021!

[nodealbrexiteer]

Jun 28, 2021 13:36:54 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Jun 28, 2021 12:44:03 GMT andrew111 said:

But electors should have to pronounce it properly before being allowed to vote

Bonus points for knowing what the Welsh name for it is ...

No but I'm sure you need a pint of phlegm to pronounce it

[Chris from Brum]

Jul 1, 2021 13:02:25 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Jun 28, 2021 13:36:54 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Bonus points for knowing what the Welsh name for it is ...

No but I'm sure you need a pint of phlegm to pronounce it

Llanllieni.  You won't see it in England, of course, but it's on route/destination signs on A44 heading east from Rhayader.

[Adam in Stroud]

While we're waiting for B & S I might as well get off my chest my reaction to some of the comment on here about C & A - I'm reminded by quite a reasonable article in the Graun which has actually bothered talking to the people who won the campaign rather than the losers or people making stuff up without visiting.

I did a little bit in the campaign and was in touch with people who did loads more. I now a few of us in yellow were involved, and london(ex)tory was obviously there - I think I picked up that timrollpickering was there or the Conservatives.

All the rest of you know nothing. You weren't there and you can't know anything from media reports one the spot cos there weren't any. You might have seen a screen shot or two of the odd leaflet, you don't know what was being said on the doorstep or the totality of the written material and how it fitted our narrative. Also, I'm no master campaigner but I've now worked for people who are, and until the rest of you can point to your by-elections won from way back and without a massive swing in national politics you can do one on that too. (The real laugh was when some of you were responding to our leaked "polling" - prob canvass returns really - with jokes about ramps, when everyone on the campaign was going "Fuck! Have we stalled or something?" You can like what I say or not, I don't care; I'm not debating, I'm telling you.

Starting point was to get our vote out since we started in second and differential turnout matters more in a by-election. Second target group was Labour voters, and the facts show we got them. Third was Greens, who were harder. After that you have the public sector workers not already covered - easy. They think the Tories have it in for them and feel they've had the tough end of Covid while some feel sniped at by the Tory press for obstructing end of lockdown. Anyone who thinks those groups were mainly worried about their property prices or keeping out the oiks has no place on a psephology forum.

Then you had soft Tories, especially Remain voters - plenty of these in a place which voted both Tory and Remain by about 55%. These were surprisingly say too - they really don't like Johnson, they still think Brexit is a cock-up, they think the party is corrupt and they don't trust it. Some of us were a bit worried by Sunak's letter to voters because he still seems to be respected, but it was soon being cited as an own goal since it implied that he'd only put funds into constituencies that elected Tories - exactly the weak point for soft Tories.

Stopping HS2 absolutely was not a runner - people didn't like it but knew damn well it was happening. What we did do was say "billions for HS2 but nothing for the roads" to play on dissatisfaction with the Tory council and with a reminder that the govt has let HS2 run way over budget. If you think Machiavelli would have approved the juxtaposition, well done, take a credit. If you think that's typical LibDem take a demerit and write 500 words on The Role of Dominic Cummings in the Vote Leave Campaign and another 500 words on Crosby Textor and the Conservative Party.

Planning was more of an issue but anyone thinking people were voting against more and cheaper housing ought to imagine going round saying "vote Tory for more affordable housing" without being laughed at. Plenty of people in our target groups would either benefit from cheaper housing or at least approve of it, they just don't believe that giving developers a free run will produce any. You know why? 'Cos they're not fucking stupid. Raising planning hurt the Tories because our target voters think "reform" is a nod and a wink to Tory donors.

Planning and oblique reference to HS2 also lobbed a hand grenade into the Conservative campaign. The people whose principles were being twisted were Tories who quite genuinely want to be the party that preserves traditional England and also quite genuinely wants to be the party of free enterprise. Principles are tricky like that, they give you dilemmas, and that's not a dig at Tories who were/are completely sincere on both principles. 

[Adam in Stroud]

I'll make a final point about planning, principles and the LD Constitution, since it's been raised. Much as I admire Richard Allen's analysis generally, reading him on the LD preamble is like reading Davıd Boothroyd talking about Sandy's religion - there's such a complete lack of understanding of the other side's mentality it's like a debate conducted in two mutually incomprehensible languages.

Affordable housing is a policy aim. Planning reform is a policy which may or may not deliver the aim. But Localism and local democracy are principles. You can no more build cheaper houses by trampling on localism and be a principle Lib Dem than you can do it by building millions of council houses and be a principled fundamentalist free marketer.

Building lots of the right sort of houses in the right places, one of the most densely populated regions in the world, isn't easy. Who knew? There are actually some good things in the proposed planning changes, but trying to make it easy by removing the word "right" from the formula is bad policy. The answer isn't to cut corners, it's to recognise that it will be bloody hard but do it anyway.

[timrollpickering]

Jul 1, 2021 19:24:45 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Stopping HS2 absolutely was not a runner - people didn't like it but knew damn well it was happening.

I'm going to disagree a bit on this. I certainly found many voters who are angry about it, want it stopped and expressed their dislike to political campaigners (they were too polite to shout in my face *). Exactly how realistic they see that wish doesn't really matter so much. Anger about something does not stop with the first shovel (and sometimes not even with the opening ceremony) and that anger often continues to be expressed in the ballot box even if they don't expect it to deliver.

(* The most angry voter I had was when knocking up. But he was angry about the endless knocking on his door and from the reaction of some of his neighbours it would appear there had been a tactless activist knocking up earlier.)

[andrew111]

Jul 1, 2021 19:34:37 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

I'll make a final point about planning, principles and the LD Constitution, since it's been raised. Much as I admire Richard Allen's analysis generally, reading him on the LD preamble is like reading Davıd Boothroyd talking about Sandy's religion - there's such a complete lack of understanding of the other side's mentality it's like a debate conducted in two mutually incomprehensible languages.

Affordable housing is a policy aim. Planning reform is a policy which may or may not deliver the aim. But Localism and local democracy are principles. You can no more build cheaper houses by trampling on localism and be a principle Lib Dem than you can do it by building millions of council houses and be a principled fundamentalist free marketer.

Building lots of the right sort of houses in the right places, one of the most densely populated regions in the world, isn't easy. Who knew? There are actually some good things in the proposed planning changes, but trying to make it easy by removing the word "right" from the formula is bad policy. The answer isn't to cut corners, it's to recognise that it will be bloody hard but do it anyway.

The other big problem with planning is that infrastructure like schools and doctors surgeries to go with it only happens in giant developments. People feel strongly that this should be paid for out of developer profits. CIL was an attempt to make sure that a proportion (20-40%) of an unavoidable tax on floorspace went directly to local communities. It gave an incentive to Neighbourhood planning designed to identify development sites. I am pretty sure the main aim of £7millon of developer donations to the Tories in the last 6 months of 2019 was to get rid of the CIL.

[Adam in Stroud]

Jul 1, 2021 20:16:37 GMT timrollpickering said:

Jul 1, 2021 19:24:45 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Stopping HS2 absolutely was not a runner - people didn't like it but knew damn well it was happening.

I'm going to disagree a bit on this. I certainly found many voters who are angry about it, want it stopped and expressed their dislike to political campaigners (they were too polite to shout in my face *). Exactly how realistic they see that wish doesn't really matter so much. Anger about something does not stop with the first shovel (and sometimes not even with the opening ceremony) and that anger often continues to be expressed in the ballot box even if they don't expect it to deliver.

(* The most angry voter I had was when knocking up. But he was angry about the endless knocking on his door and from the reaction of some of his neighbours it would appear there had been a tactless activist knocking up earlier.)

I don't disagree with that at all, Tim. The point I'm making is that stopping it was never a plank in our campaign. It was a vote-suppressor for you, not a vote winner for us.

It came into our campaign materials as an illustration of past perceived failure to consult, so we could say "The Tories don't listen to you." Thus everyone said that they'd be all over the contractors regarding any breaches of commitments, but I think it was harder for your man to sound credible.

[Devil Wincarnate]

There are worse angles for the Lib Dems to take than turning into the FDP. Cabrio-Liberalismus.

[neilm]

Jul 3, 2021 12:24:30 GMT @boogieeck said:

The issue of nimbyism is to Conservatives what the bedroom tax was to Labour

A demand for protectionism by a group that has landed an unearned privilege and want to keep it by shafting the prospects of the next generation

Soon we will hear of 'the hated planning reforms.'

[Richard Allen]

Jul 1, 2021 19:24:45 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

While we're waiting for B & S I might as well get off my chest my reaction to some of the comment on here about C & A - I'm reminded by quite a reasonable article in the Graun which has actually bothered talking to the people who won the campaign rather than the losers or people making stuff up without visiting.

I did a little bit in the campaign and was in touch with people who did loads more. I now a few of us in yellow were involved, and london(ex)tory was obviously there - I think I picked up that timrollpickering was there or the Conservatives.

All the rest of you know nothing. You weren't there and you can't know anything from media reports one the spot cos there weren't any. You might have seen a screen shot or two of the odd leaflet, you don't know what was being said on the doorstep or the totality of the written material and how it fitted our narrative. Also, I'm no master campaigner but I've now worked for people who are, and until the rest of you can point to your by-elections won from way back and without a massive swing in national politics you can do one on that too. (The real laugh was when some of you were responding to our leaked "polling" - prob canvass returns really - with jokes about ramps, when everyone on the campaign was going "Fuck! Have we stalled or something?" You can like what I say or not, I don't care; I'm not debating, I'm telling you.

Starting point was to get our vote out since we started in second and differential turnout matters more in a by-election. Second target group was Labour voters, and the facts show we got them. Third was Greens, who were harder. After that you have the public sector workers not already covered - easy. They think the Tories have it in for them and feel they've had the tough end of Covid while some feel sniped at by the Tory press for obstructing end of lockdown. Anyone who thinks those groups were mainly worried about their property prices or keeping out the oiks has no place on a psephology forum.

Then you had soft Tories, especially Remain voters - plenty of these in a place which voted both Tory and Remain by about 55%. These were surprisingly say too - they really don't like Johnson, they still think Brexit is a cock-up, they think the party is corrupt and they don't trust it. Some of us were a bit worried by Sunak's letter to voters because he still seems to be respected, but it was soon being cited as an own goal since it implied that he'd only put funds into constituencies that elected Tories - exactly the weak point for soft Tories.

Stopping HS2 absolutely was not a runner - people didn't like it but knew damn well it was happening. What we did do was say "billions for HS2 but nothing for the roads" to play on dissatisfaction with the Tory council and with a reminder that the govt has let HS2 run way over budget. If you think Machiavelli would have approved the juxtaposition, well done, take a credit. If you think that's typical LibDem take a demerit and write 500 words on The Role of Dominic Cummings in the Vote Leave Campaign and another 500 words on Crosby Textor and the Conservative Party.

Planning was more of an issue but anyone thinking people were voting against more and cheaper housing ought to imagine going round saying "vote Tory for more affordable housing" without being laughed at. Plenty of people in our target groups would either benefit from cheaper housing or at least approve of it, they just don't believe that giving developers a free run will produce any. You know why? 'Cos they're not fucking stupid. Raising planning hurt the Tories because our target voters think "reform" is a nod and a wink to Tory donors.

Planning and oblique reference to HS2 also lobbed a hand grenade into the Conservative campaign. The people whose principles were being twisted were Tories who quite genuinely want to be the party that preserves traditional England and also quite genuinely wants to be the party of free enterprise. Principles are tricky like that, they give you dilemmas, and that's not a dig at Tories who were/are completely sincere on both principles. 

A spirited defence but your opposition to planning reform was just like UKIP expressing concern about immigration. It is/was a dog whistle to the nimbys / racists. Now that's okay, it was good politics, and it got the job done. Just don't try and kid us that it was high minded.