Chesham and Amersham

[yellowperil]

Jun 23, 2021 6:24:23 GMT michael2019 said:

Jun 23, 2021 6:19:41 GMT yellowperil said:

Wow! That's much more thorough than I could ever be bothered to be. Thanks very much for the effort. This started with a bit of idle speculation on my part and I had a go at working it out but I knew that there was a strong possibility, knowing this forum, that somebody here would spot the errors for me and it's those pesky ratters and re-ratters that make it challenging. It certainly looks right now to me but of course you now have laid down the challenge for anyone here to find any more mistakes!

Now that does seem to be a mistake! What happened to the reply?

Incidentally , I found no errors of fact in your post but one case of a list of repeated surnames(Moran Moran etc).

We could really do with the results of your hard work up on Wiki. Much better than what's there now!

[michael2019]

Jun 23, 2021 6:42:40 GMT yellowperil said:

Jun 23, 2021 6:24:23 GMT michael2019 said:

Now that does seem to be a mistake! What happened to the reply?

Incidentally , I found no errors of fact in your post but one case of a list of repeated surnames(Moran Moran etc).

We could really do with the results of your hard work up on Wiki. Much better than what's there now!

Lol !

Yes I pressed "create post" too early by mistake but then edited it - so there should now be my reply on the forum! (I probably should have deleted it and started again!)

Thanks for your further kind words. 

(When people have error checked it - I will post it as a table here)

(Edit: Couldn't resist it - so have taken out the duplicate "Moran" !)

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jun 23, 2021 6:52:26 GMT michael2019 said:

Jun 23, 2021 6:42:40 GMT yellowperil said:

Now that does seem to be a mistake! What happened to the reply?

Incidentally , I found no errors of fact in your post but one case of a list of repeated surnames(Moran Moran etc).

We could really do with the results of your hard work up on Wiki. Much better than what's there now!

Lol !

Yes I pressed "create post" too early by mistake but then edited it - so there should now be my reply on the forum! (I probably should have deleted it and started again!)

Thanks for your further kind words. 

(When people have error checked it - I will post it as a table here)

Who was the 100th Labour MP?

(As you seem to like a challenge)

😜😈😱🤣

[Pete Whitehead]

"By-election gains" should read "first elected at by-election" since Cheadle and Eastleigh were obviously not gains

[stb12]

Was Cheryl Gillan a popular local MP, or could this have happened to her as well with the right circumstances?

[froome]

And another question... does anyone know if there was a significant difference in breakdown on votes between those voting postally and on the day?

[timmullen1]

Jun 23, 2021 7:30:28 GMT stb12 said:

Was Cheryl Gillan a popular local MP, or could this have happened to her as well with the right circumstances?

Her share of the vote had only dropped 5.3% between 2017 and 2019, and was still 55%, having risen slightly in 2017 from 2015. I think she got credit for consistently voting against HS2, and was working to get the Chilterns Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty upgraded to National Park status, which would give an added line of defence against development.

[andrewp]

Jun 23, 2021 7:30:28 GMT stb12 said:

Was Cheryl Gillan a popular local MP, or could this have happened to her as well with the right circumstances?

If she were the candidate, then it would be a general election, and this wouldn’t have happened at  a general election. 
She had 29 years incumbency and opposition to HS2 in the bank as well. 

[Adam in Stroud]

Jun 23, 2021 8:27:48 GMT timmullen1 said:

Jun 23, 2021 7:30:28 GMT stb12 said:

Was Cheryl Gillan a popular local MP, or could this have happened to her as well with the right circumstances?

Her share of the vote had only dropped 5.3% between 2017 and 2019, and was still 55%, having risen slightly in 2017 from 2015. I think she got credit for consistently voting against HS2, and was working to get the Chilterns Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty upgraded to National Park status, which would give an added line of defence against development.

Would it? I was always led to believe that AONB status is pretty much equal to National Park in terms of protection, but that in the latter the Park Authority has a duty to encourage leisure use and visit from nearby urban areas (whereas in an AONB they can tell the oiks to piss off and stop trampling the pretty flowers)

[timmullen1]

Jun 23, 2021 9:03:39 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Jun 23, 2021 8:27:48 GMT timmullen1 said:

Her share of the vote had only dropped 5.3% between 2017 and 2019, and was still 55%, having risen slightly in 2017 from 2015. I think she got credit for consistently voting against HS2, and was working to get the Chilterns Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty upgraded to National Park status, which would give an added line of defence against development.

Would it? I was always led to believe that AONB status is pretty much equal to National Park in terms of protection, but that in the latter the Park Authority has a duty to encourage leisure use and visit from nearby urban areas (whereas in an AONB they can tell the oiks to piss off and stop trampling the pretty flowers)

As I read it the proposed legislation to reform the planning laws adds a tier exempting National Parks from some of its provisions (that’s purely from Johnson’s visit to the constituency just before the election, but as he pledged to introduce National Park status, and in her post-election interviews Ms Green has promised to hold him to that pledge, I assume there’s some benefit somewhere to being a National Park).

[The Bishop]

Jun 22, 2021 16:07:43 GMT yellowperil said:

Jun 22, 2021 14:51:07 GMT Andrew_S said:

Did the party win any by-elections when they were known as either the "Social and Liberal Democrats" or the "Democrats"?

If you mean parliamentary by-elections the short answer is no. There were 6 parliamentary  byelections I think in those "Salad Days", and in five of them there was a fierce contest between SLD and SDP to the benefit of neither. The only one where the combined vote of the former Alliance parties would have taken the seat from the Conservatives was Richmond, and there the continuing SDP was second and the SLD third, letting in a hapless Tory candidate called Hague. Glasgow Govan the SLD left to the SDP but they were pretty distant anyway. I think in the other 4 - Kensington, Epping Forest, Pontypridd, Vale of Glamorgan) the achievement for the SLD was finishing ahead of the SDP, however far from the finishing line they were. Come to think of it, I was at some  of those- not the Welsh ones though.  Eastbourne was the first breakthrough and I was certainly there, so yes in answer to an earlier question I suppose Bellotti was the first.

Nope, the opposite was true there - your (deposit losing) candidate was Bernard Ponsonby.

[yellowperil]

Jun 23, 2021 11:01:19 GMT The Bishop said:

Jun 22, 2021 16:07:43 GMT yellowperil said:

If you mean parliamentary by-elections the short answer is no. There were 6 parliamentary  byelections I think in those "Salad Days", and in five of them there was a fierce contest between SLD and SDP to the benefit of neither. The only one where the combined vote of the former Alliance parties would have taken the seat from the Conservatives was Richmond, and there the continuing SDP was second and the SLD third, letting in a hapless Tory candidate called Hague. Glasgow Govan the SLD left to the SDP but they were pretty distant anyway. I think in the other 4 - Kensington, Epping Forest, Pontypridd, Vale of Glamorgan) the achievement for the SLD was finishing ahead of the SDP, however far from the finishing line they were. Come to think of it, I was at some  of those- not the Welsh ones though.  Eastbourne was the first breakthrough and I was certainly there, so yes in answer to an earlier question I suppose Bellotti was the first.

Nope, the opposite was true there - your (deposit losing) candidate was Bernard Ponsonby.

Oops, yes you are quite right- my memory is obviously failing. At this distance I could have sworn Ponsonby was a continuing SDPer but seems I was wrong. I was active in most byelections in that era but must confess I never got to Govan.

[Adam in Stroud]

Jun 23, 2021 9:08:05 GMT timmullen1 said:

Jun 23, 2021 9:03:39 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Would it? I was always led to believe that AONB status is pretty much equal to National Park in terms of protection, but that in the latter the Park Authority has a duty to encourage leisure use and visit from nearby urban areas (whereas in an AONB they can tell the oiks to piss off and stop trampling the pretty flowers)

As I read it the proposed legislation to reform the planning laws adds a tier exempting National Parks from some of its provisions (that’s purely from Johnson’s visit to the constituency just before the election, but as he pledged to introduce National Park status, and in her post-election interviews Ms Green has promised to hold him to that pledge, I assume there’s some benefit somewhere to being a National Park).

I think it rash to assume that Boris Johnson pledges mean anything at all.

I welcome anyone at all trying to hold him to them, because I think it'd be a refreshing change, but I'm not holding my breath.

As it happens, the location of the Chilterns just outside London does seem to me a perfect place for a National Park in terms of a place urban dwellers could be given a chance to connect with nature.

[timmullen1]

Jun 23, 2021 17:39:51 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Jun 23, 2021 9:08:05 GMT timmullen1 said:

As I read it the proposed legislation to reform the planning laws adds a tier exempting National Parks from some of its provisions (that’s purely from Johnson’s visit to the constituency just before the election, but as he pledged to introduce National Park status, and in her post-election interviews Ms Green has promised to hold him to that pledge, I assume there’s some benefit somewhere to being a National Park).

I think it rash to assume that Boris Johnson pledges mean anything at all.

I welcome anyone at all trying to hold him to them, because I think it'd be a refreshing change, but I'm not holding my breath.

As it happens, the location of the Chilterns just outside London does seem to me a perfect place for a National Park in terms of a place urban dwellers could be given a chance to connect with nature.

I didn’t mean my comment as an endorsement, I was just addressing your apparent doubts in your earlier post that there were any added protections from those available to an AONB by pointing out that in the accompanying reports it was mentioned that such a designation did add some degree of protection from the proposed house building that featured so strongly in the campaign, and given it was Dame Cheryl’s unfinished campaign, I presume there must be something in the designation that she could sell to her electorate. I note Mr Fleet said that the PM needed to deliver on his pledge despite the LDs would claim the credit, but I did wonder whether the denizens of Chesham and Amersham had shot themselves in the foot by voting the “wrong” way and might now be punished by not getting their National Park.

[andrew111]

Jun 23, 2021 18:09:50 GMT timmullen1 said:

Jun 23, 2021 17:39:51 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

I think it rash to assume that Boris Johnson pledges mean anything at all.

I welcome anyone at all trying to hold him to them, because I think it'd be a refreshing change, but I'm not holding my breath.

As it happens, the location of the Chilterns just outside London does seem to me a perfect place for a National Park in terms of a place urban dwellers could be given a chance to connect with nature.

I didn’t mean my comment as an endorsement, I was just addressing your apparent doubts in your earlier post that there were any added protections from those available to an AONB by pointing out that in the accompanying reports it was mentioned that such a designation did add some degree of protection from the proposed house building that featured so strongly in the campaign, and given it was Dame Cheryl’s unfinished campaign, I presume there must be something in the designation that she could sell to her electorate. I note Mr Fleet said that the PM needed to deliver on his pledge despite the LDs would claim the credit, but I did wonder whether the denizens of Chesham and Amersham had shot themselves in the foot by voting the “wrong” way and might now be punished by not getting their National Park.

If the Tories want to make sure we hold C&A they will "punish" residents. I think it is far more likely than if they had won.

[yellowperil]

In the now distant past I did have a role within the AONB on the North Downs which has many similar characteistics to the Chilterns, i.e. chalk uplands close to London, and there was often fierce debate about the potential for upgrading to NP status (that was before the South Downs finally got theirs). I would summarise it as about equal on pros and cons, but generally added protection against development was seen as the main pro.I personally would have preferred toughening up the provisions for AONBs rather than adding more NPs, but that's a rather less sexy line to take. I have been quite impressed with the South Downs NP though since it arrived, but not particularly in terms of development protection.

[Richard Allen]

Since the electorate clearly rejected the package of measures put forward by the Tories they have no right to complain when they don't get national park status.

[neilm]

Jun 23, 2021 18:44:41 GMT Richard Allen said:

Since the electorate clearly rejected the package of measures put forward by the Tories they have no right to complain when they don't get national park status.

They'd moan like hell if they did.

[andrew111]

Jun 27, 2021 0:07:59 GMT Andrew_S said:

Something that many or perhaps most of us seem to have missed about Con / LD by-elections was pointed out by Mike Smithson on PoliticalBetting, which is that since William Hague was elected in Richmond (Yorks) in February 1989, the LDs have only failed to win a Conservative held seat where they started in second place on one occasion, which was Henley in 2008. Every other instance has ended with a LD gain. This hadn't occurred to me beforehand. (A possible reason for the Henley exception may be that the constituency was very close to David Cameron's Witney seat and he'd only been in post as Conservative leader for a short time).

I have pointed it out a few times here and there, and Henley was when Tories were in opposition. So it is 100% when the Tories are in government and Lib Dems second. And even in Richmond and Epping Forest the Tory vote fell by 20%, with them well over 40% in the polls at the time (but a split centrist opposition enabled them to hold) . Tories holding C&A would have been exceptional, which is why I voted Lib Dem win..

[andrewp]

Jun 27, 2021 11:28:07 GMT andrew111 said:

Jun 27, 2021 0:07:59 GMT Andrew_S said:

Something that many or perhaps most of us seem to have missed about Con / LD by-elections was pointed out by Mike Smithson on PoliticalBetting, which is that since William Hague was elected in Richmond (Yorks) in February 1989, the LDs have only failed to win a Conservative held seat where they started in second place on one occasion, which was Henley in 2008. Every other instance has ended with a LD gain. This hadn't occurred to me beforehand. (A possible reason for the Henley exception may be that the constituency was very close to David Cameron's Witney seat and he'd only been in post as Conservative leader for a short time).

I have pointed it out a few times here and there, and Henley was when Tories were in opposition. So it is 100% when the Tories are in government and Lib Dems second. And even in Richmond and Epping Forest the Tory vote fell by 20%, with them well over 40% in the polls at the time (but a split centrist opposition enabled them to hold) . Tories holding C&A would have been exceptional, which is why I voted Lib Dem win..

The safest Conservative seat where the Lib Dem’s were 2nd in 2019 is Herefordshire North.  Would that be a Lib Dem gain in a BE at the moment?

3rd on that list is Christchurch.