2021 Peruvian Election

[johnhemming]

I don't myself know enough about the candidates and their histories to make decisions between them. Castillo faces the realities of international politics. If he wishes to change the tax take on Copper Mining he has to either try to unilaterally change agreements such as those with MML (prop China) or negotiate things.

In the end his problem with international investors is that if he wants them to invest (and he has said this), the first thing they want is some certainty that he is not going to try to unilaterally change deals. Then they are interested in how much they get for what they invest. They are not particularly concerned about how much the Peruvian state gets.

Hence if he tries to change the current deals he will find difficulty getting investment at all, if he tries to increase the Peruvian take on new deals he is likely to get less investment as people will only invest in the more profitable deals.

As this was his key point in his platform he has a problem. His only hope is what's called the Commodities Super Cycle where companies will be making more money and probably won't mind that much a marginal royalty take that increases with price. That still causes investment problems, however.

And that comes if he can get any changes through Congress as may be required.

[Georg Ebner]

Jun 10, 2021 17:59:40 GMT ibfc said:

Jun 10, 2021 17:47:42 GMT johnhemming said:

There is a system in the UK, the election petition, but it is a really expensive legal process.

Even we have that system in India but that takes so long that cases sometimes don't even finish before the end of the term of the relevant legislature.

Yes, legal battles are said to last for generations/centuries in India...

[minionofmidas]

Jun 12, 2021 11:43:09 GMT @europeanlefty said:

So the next step is that the USA decides the election was rigged despite a complete lack of evidence, invades, overthrows Castillo and installs Fujimori as head of a compliant dictatorship

not only is the Bolivian pr disaster too fresh, Fujimori is hardly the ptb's dream candidate. Oh and Castillo has no track record of being able to govern. The OAS thus admits it sees no evidence of fraud. (There's also a new administration in the US of course, which can't hurt, but I'm too cynical to consider that a sufficient explanation.)

[johng]

All votes, it appears, have now been counted. It's another tiny margin for Fujimori to lose by, but she is actually 0.01 points further away than last time. Perhaps it'll be fourth time lucky for her...

My understanding is there will be further potential challenges and this might not be final final for a while.

There is also the question of how long Castillo will serve. Impeachment is very much when, not if.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

His victory has been accepted by all.


He will be sworn in on the 28th July

[johng]

It's all going as well as expected.

[rcronald]

Oct 6, 2021 23:58:54 GMT johng said:

It's all going as well as expected.

Good on Castillo, he needs to assert himself as a responsible social Democrat with a socially conservative tinge (like what he presented himself as in the 2nd round) and not a terrorist sympathizing Marxist….

[johnhemming]

His new appointees are generally to the left of Social Democracy, but are more rational. In the end if governments want to be trusted they have to behave in a trustworthy manner.

[WJ]

Well, reading back though this has been interesting!