2021 Peruvian Election

[iain]

Peru’s elections are coming up, with the first round of the presidential elections, and the congressional elections, on 11th April. For some background, see the thread from last year’s extraordinary elections:
vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/13758/peruvian-extraordinary-congressional-elections-2020

The presidential election is obviously the main event. Polling is sketchy, and the field is very split, but in my view these are the top five contenders to make it into the second round:

Yonhy Lescano (Acción Popular)
-A congressman from 2001-19, first for Puno and then for Lima, Lescano has surged to become the favourite in the race. He has sought to distance himself both from Manuel Merino and other members of his party who instigated the coup against Martin Vízcarra late last year; and from Abimael Guzman and Sendero Luminoso, who he has been associated with in the past. Lescano is economically leftist, but also nationalist, railing against transnational corporations and FTAs. He is not especially socially liberal or green - maybe Rafael Correa would be the best (albeit very imperfect) parallel in another country.

George Forsyth (Victoria Nacional)
-Ex-professional footballer and latterly Mayor of La Victoria in Lima, Forsyth was the early leader in the polls, but is now scrapping to come in second. He has a reputation as the least corrupt candidate, and was noted for being tough on crime as Mayor, but has been criticised for travelling rather light ideologically. He is pro-market and also socially liberal, for instance being pro-gay rights and advocates some limited loosening of abortion laws.

Rafael Lopez Aliaga (Renovación Popular)
-A former banker and current member of Opus Dei, Lopez Aliaga has proclaimed himself as the ‘Peruvian Bolsonaro’. He has said that his first act as President would be to expel Odebrecht from Peru, and he has proposed lifetime gaol sentences for corrupt congressmen. He hopes to attract more private investment to Peru, particularly to mine lithium, and has also campaigned on his strong social conservativism. He further supports lowering the salaries of congressmen, decentralising the state, and abolishing several ministries.

Keiko Fujimori (Fuerza Popular)
-Well, the surname probably says it all here. She got to the second round of the last two presidential elections but lost both, by 2.9% then 0.2%. This time around she is probably the candidate with least chance to win - she could squeak into the second round, but her extremely high unfavourables make victory almost impossible. She has been held in prison twice since 2018 on corruption charges, and her most visible policy is probably that she would pardon her father, who is still in gaol. She is (shockingly) an adherent of Fujimorismo, so a right-wing populist.

Veronika Mendoza (Juntos por el Perú)
-First elected as to Congress as a member of Ollanta Humala’s nationalist party in 2011, Mendoza ran for the presidency herself in 2016 for Frente Amplio, very narrowly missing out on the second round. Since then she left that party and formed her own, which fell just short of the 5% threshold in the extraordinary elections last year. She is a is a pro-indigenous, women’s and LGBT rights leftist, whose platform strongly emphasises clean water for all Peruvians. She is also the most environmentalist candidate, and supports a new constitution for Peru.

[John Chanin]

If Forsyth makes it to the second round he will win, but that is looking increasingly unlikely. Lopez has to finish ahead of the fading Fujimori, but it won’t be easy. If Fujimori makes it to the second round she will definitely lose - to whoever she is facing. Mendoza is the most attractive candidate, although as always it’s anyone’s guess how she might perform if elected. However if as the representative of the united left she couldn’t beat the aging American economist Kaczynski last time, she has no chance this time. Best guess is a Lescano-Lopez run off, which Lescano will probably win, but whether he proves competent is another matter. Ollanta didn’t do too badly despite many doubts when he was elected, and Peru advanced economically under his presidency.

Those interested should refer to the weird congressional elections, when a multiplicity of parties with varying regional strengths could none of them make national headway. A couple of partiies who won locally were barred from Congress by failing to reach the national threshold. It was a mess, but it will be easier for a new president than when Fujimori’s party was the dominant force.

[iain]

I don’t agree that Forsyth would beat any challenger - I think all head to head polls have shown him losing to Lescano.

I also disagree that Mendoza failing to make the second round last time means she won’t get there this time. If she could repeat her performance of 18% in the first round then it is all but certain she would make the run-off. Things are much more splintered this time around.

[iain]

Mar 30, 2021 17:25:54 GMT iain said:

In my view these are the top five contenders to make it into the second round

It appears I may have been a bit premature here - Hernando de Soto (Avanza País) has risen rapidly in the polls. He is a renowned neoliberal economist, who advised the government of Alberto Fujimori and the last two campaigns for Keiko Fujimori. If we end up with a de Soto v Fujimori runoff then it is probably the only way a Fujimorist can win.

Also with a surprise surge is Pedro Castillo - he is probably a more left wing, more socially conservative version of Lescano. He is pretty religious, e.g. being opposed to gay rights, and has praised the Chavez / Maduro regimes.

[iain]

Exit poll shows:
Pedro Castillo - 16.1%
Hernando de Soto - 11.9%
Keiko Fujimori - 11.9%
Yonhy Lescano - 11.0%
Rafael Lopez Aliaga - 10.5%
Veronika Mendoza - 8.8%

So probably Castillo v a Fujimorist - pretty much a worst case scenario.

I haven’t seen any polling on it, but Castillo seems like he could be the one candidate who is beatable for Fujimori.

[iain]

With 55% counted:
Castillo - 16.3%
De Soto - 13.4%
Fujimori - 12.9%
Lopez Aliaga - 12.8%

Looking at what is still out, Castillo v Fujimori looks very likely.

[iain]

Up to 70% counted now, and Fujimori has taken second place.

[Georg Ebner]

Apr 12, 2021 16:24:25 GMT iain said:

Up to 70% counted now, and Fujimori has taken second place.

And Lima (city&region) is mostly done, so she will very likely prevail.

[johng]

Apr 12, 2021 12:44:14 GMT iain said:

With 55% counted:
Castillo - 16.3%
De Soto - 13.4%
Fujimori - 12.9%
Lopez Aliaga - 12.8%

Looking at what is still out, Castillo v Fujimori looks very likely.

So far-left Chavezism vs. far-right fascism.

If I were Peruvian, I'd be very tempted to hold my nose and vote Castillo. If she gets into power, Fujimori's/ Fujimorism's grip on the the key organs of state will be a lot stronger.

[iain]

Apr 12, 2021 21:37:52 GMT johng said:

Apr 12, 2021 12:44:14 GMT iain said:

With 55% counted:
Castillo - 16.3%
De Soto - 13.4%
Fujimori - 12.9%
Lopez Aliaga - 12.8%

Looking at what is still out, Castillo v Fujimori looks very likely.

So far-left Chavezism vs. far-right fascism.

If I were Peruvian, I'd be very tempted to hold my nose and vote Castillo. If she gets into power, Fujimori's/ Fujimorism's grip on the the key organs of state will be a lot stronger.

I tend to agree. Castillo probably has more potential to be a disaster (which up against Keiko is quite something ...) but is less likely to actually achieve anything. Also, Castillo’s potential allies in Congress are more moderate, whereas Fujimori would have a bit of a bloc. Allies of de Soto and Lopez Aliaga aren’t a million miles away from her in policy terms (indeed, LA is probably worse from my POV), and would have similar agendas - what would have made them more appetising presidents is the fact that they aren’t obviously corrupt criminals.

Honestly, whoever wins, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them impeached during their term, possibly fairly quickly. This is a very worrying time for Peruvian democracy.

[johnhemming]

I would wonder if Castillo's links to Shining Path themselves are likely to make this particular electoral conflict more potentially violent in its broader context. That is putting aside any questions as to the balance of power in the Congress or actual electoral issues.

I thought I would look at the constitutional process for impeachment. It requires as I see it 87 votes. I would assume that a proportion of congress start from a default position of being willing to impeach each candidate and some would impeach both. I don't know enough about the party structure and its allegiances and we don't as yet as far as I can see have figures for seats in congress (as opposed to percentage votes which do exist).

[johnhemming]

I have found this estimate:
Perú Libre - 32 curules
Fuerza Popular - 24 curules
Acción Popular - 21 curules
Alianza para el Progreso - 14 curules
Renovación Popular - 13 curules
Avanza País - 7 curules
Podemos Perú - 5 curules
Somos Perú - 4 curules
Victoria Nacional - 4 curules
Juntos por el Perú - 3 curules
Partido Morado - 4 curules

If Castillo were to win the presidential election he would need 44 votes to block impeachment. I don't know enough about Peruvian politics to work out who would naturally vote against impeachment, but obviously 32 seats is not enough.

[iain]

Apr 13, 2021 14:13:37 GMT johnhemming said:

I have found this estimate:
Perú Libre - 32 curules
Fuerza Popular - 24 curules
Acción Popular - 21 curules
Alianza para el Progreso - 14 curules
Renovación Popular - 13 curules
Avanza País - 7 curules
Podemos Perú - 5 curules
Somos Perú - 4 curules
Victoria Nacional - 4 curules
Juntos por el Perú - 3 curules
Partido Morado - 4 curules

If Castillo were to win the presidential election he would need 44 votes to block impeachment. I don't know enough about Peruvian politics to work out who would naturally vote against impeachment, but obviously 32 seats is not enough.

I’m pretty certain that won’t end up the final result, but it may be a decent enough guide (VN I don’t think will make the 5% threshold so will end with 0, and PM will also be touch and go). Of those he could probably rely on some support from Juntos por el Perú and Acción Popular, but the latter will probably have a bloc of congressmen who would be happy to vote for impeachment.

[iain]

Rafael Lopez Aliaga has endorsed Castillo for the runoff:

[John Chanin]

Apr 14, 2021 23:04:57 GMT iain said:

Rafael Lopez Aliaga has endorsed Castillo for the runoff:

Anyone but Fujimori.....Castillo has this in the bag, and a fractious (and fractionated) congress should allow him to govern, if he is competent.  The latter of course remains to be seen.  

[Richard Cromwell]

An extremely socially conservative communist versus the daughter of a para-fascist dictator, it's like they plucked the set-up from my teenage self's imagination.

Also ... I can't believe it's taken me this long to realise how terrible a two-round electoral system is. In my head, it's always just been "instant runoff with a bit more time to think about it".

[Khunanup]

Apr 15, 2021 8:26:33 GMT Richard Cromwell said:

An extremely socially conservative communist versus the daughter of a para-fascist dictator, it's like they plucked the set-up from my teenage self's imagination.

Also ... I can't believe it's taken me this long to realise how terrible a two-round electoral system is. In my head, it's always just been "instant runoff with a bit more time to think about it".

Yes, it really shows its weakness when there's a lot of candidates getting an even spread of votes. It's supplementary vote with a bit of thinking time which demonstrates how rubbish a system it is.

A preferential system would certainly mean that at least one or even both of the top two in round one wouldn't be in the top two at the end because their potential wide appeal is so low.

[johnhemming]

Does anyone think the blank vote voters will vote for or against either candidate? I assume that both can have reasons which would motivate someone who normally does a blank vote to vote against them.

At this point assuming that the presidential vote can be switched by the views of the candidate (Which we know is not 100% anyway). I have for Castillo
Castillo 19
Mendoza 8
Aliaga 12
Total 39

Are there others we should add to this as yet?

[iain]

Regardless of what Aliaga says, I expect most of his voters to go for Fujimori. Most of Lescano's voters will almost certainly go for Castillo, as will the small numbers who went for Humala, Vega and Gálvez, plus probably Arana and Alcántara.

The number of blank votes does normally fall in the second round, but I've got no idea who that would favour.

[minionofmidas]

Apr 15, 2021 8:26:33 GMT Richard Cromwell said:

Also ... I can't believe it's taken me this long to realise how terrible a two-round electoral system is. In my head, it's always just been "instant runoff with a bit more time to think about it".

Where were you at the time of Chirac's reelection!?