johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849 
|
Post by johng on May 4, 2021 20:30:29 GMT
In the latest Ipsos and CIT polls, Fujimori is still behind, but the numbers are looking a little better for her.
Headline figures are:
CIT
Castillo - 38 %
Fujimori - 35 %
Ipsos
Castillo - 43 % (+1)
Fujimori - 34 % (+3)
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849
|
Post by johng on May 12, 2021 9:38:04 GMT
Polls continue to move quite dramatically in Peru. Note these all exclude blank/ won't vote.
|
|
|
|
Post by johnhemming on May 12, 2021 10:24:25 GMT
Various polls have shown not so much a swing from Castillo to Fujimori, but more a swing from undecided to Fujimori.
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849
|
Post by johng on May 12, 2021 13:40:44 GMT
Various polls have shown not so much a swing from Castillo to Fujimori, but more a swing from undecided to Fujimori. I did say they exclude blank/ won't vote/ don't know. The number saying that was massive in the first polls after the first round and continues to be very large.
|
|
|
|
Post by johnhemming on May 12, 2021 14:16:08 GMT
I would say, however, that blank voters have a different meaning in Peru. I have not studied the polls that much as to spot if there is a movement from blank, but there was a movement from undecided.
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849
|
Post by johng on May 21, 2021 0:23:22 GMT
Recent polls are mixed, but certainly seem to be swinging towards Fuijimori and we have now got our first putting her ahead (noting it's a but out of line with others).
|
|
|
|
Post by johnhemming on May 21, 2021 6:57:34 GMT
I have found more details of the most recent one
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
|
Post by iain on May 24, 2021 9:02:07 GMT
Counting has finally concluded for the parliamentary elections, with the results being:
Peru Libre (far left, soc con) - 37
Fuerza Popular (Fujimorist) - 24
Acción Popular (centre to centre left, moderately soc con) - 16
Alianza para el Progreso (centre right, moderately soc con) - 15
Renovación Popular (far right) - 13
Avanza País (Fujimorist) - 7
Juntos por el Perú (left, progressive) - 5
Somos Perú (Christian Democrat) - 5
Podemos Perú (right) - 5
Partido Morado (centre right, socially liberal) - 3
Be aware that the labels are very rough.
Those who would have been entitled to seats, but missing out due to the 5% threshold are:
4.96% - Victoria Nacional (centre right, socially liberal) - 3
4.58% - FREPAP (Christian fundamentalist) - 2
1.65% - Partido Popular Cristiano (Christian Democrat) - 1
'Their' seats were redistributed to Juntos por el Perú (2), Fuerza Popular, Renovación Popular, Alianza para el Progreso and Somos Perú
From that I would say that whoever wins the Presidential election is going to have a hard time passing much through Congress.
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849
|
Post by johng on May 25, 2021 15:43:39 GMT
Very sad news coming out of Peru.
I'm torn on what Shining Path actually want. This attack will help Fujimori over anyone else. Clearly they don't want a leftist president who will take support from them, but Fujimori will likely be a strong adversary.
|
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on May 25, 2021 17:15:26 GMT
I'm torn on what Shining Path actually want. This attack will help Fujimori over anyone else. Clearly they don't want a leftist president who will take support from them, but Fujimori will likely be a strong adversary. Either: Shining Path is still a Maoist insurgent group - in which case it would be completely indifferent to the result of a bourgeois democratic Presidential election, Or: it is has degenerated to be a criminal / drug cartel - in which case it would be completely indifferent to the result of a bourgeois democratic Presidential election. |
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849
|
Post by johng on May 31, 2021 23:44:03 GMT
Peru bans polls in the week before the election, so it looks like these are the final simulation polls out. No pollster covered themselves in any glory whatsoever in the first round with all of them having Castillo far lower than his first place result. Ipsos, for example, had Fujimori fifth and Castillo seventh in their final poll. Though the situation there was incredibly fluid and fast-moving with numerous candidates being the front-runner at various times. All of the final polls show Fujimori gaining and the margin between the two looking very small. Ipsos (28/5 - Changes with 21/5) Castillo - 45.1 % (+0.1%) Fujimori - 43.1 % (+2.4%) CIT (27-28/5 - Changes with 21-22/5) Fujimori - 41.7 % (-1.3%) Castillo - 40.6 % (+1.7%) Datum (25-27/5 - Changes with 18-20/5) Castillo - 42.6 % (-2.9%) Fujimori - 41.7 % (+1.6%) Or: it is has degenerated to be a criminal / drug cartel - in which case it would be completely indifferent to the result of a bourgeois democratic Presidential election. Shining Path is undoubtedly a drug cartel. I don't see why they would have no interest in this election though. The weaker the Peruvian state, the easier they will find it to operate unhindered and with impunity. |
|
|
|
Post by johnhemming on Jun 5, 2021 6:24:29 GMT
www.reuters.com/world/americas/perus-castillo-falls-polls-suggesting-photo-finish-against-fujimori-2021-06-05/"Peruvian socialist presidential candidate Pedro Castillo slipped further in public opinion polls on Friday, setting up what appeared to be a dead heat against right-wing Keiko Fujimori two days before Sunday's runoff election. "In a poll by Ipsos seen by Reuters, Castillo led by 0.9 percentage point, while a poll by CPI, also seen by Reuters, had Fujimori ahead by 0.2 percentage point, the first time the right-wing candidate has led her leftist rival. "The highly polarized election pits Fujimori, the daughter of jailed ex-President Alberto Fujimori, against Castillo, a little-known elementary school teacher and union leader who has campaigned on a socialist platform. "Polls have shown Fujimori catching up to the current statistical tie with Castillo, who has been the favorite since the first round vote in April. "The Ipsos poll had a 2.8% error margin while the CPI poll had a 2.5% error margin. "It is illegal within Peru to publish polls during the last week before a presidential election, although those surveys can still be carried out as long as local media do not publish them."
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
|
Post by The Bishop on Jun 5, 2021 8:55:22 GMT
The important question may well turn out to be if polling understates poorer voters in rural areas (as has been the case in recent Bolivian elections)
|
|
|
|
Post by johnhemming on Jun 5, 2021 9:10:31 GMT
The important question may well turn out to be if polling understates poorer voters in rural areas (as has been the case in recent Bolivian elections) I have had a view that this may be a factor for some time. However, poorer voters have seen what has happened in Venezuela. |
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849
|
Post by johng on Jun 5, 2021 9:19:45 GMT
Reuters needs to catch up. These are the same polls I posted last week.
On The Bishop 's point, the first round polls were pretty terrible in general, but they all underestimated Fujimori's support as well as Castillo's. As I said above, the final Ipsos poll had her in fifth position and him seventh. I don't think that shows evidence of a Fujimori bias.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
|
Post by iain on Jun 5, 2021 10:05:50 GMT
Reuters needs to catch up. These are the same polls I posted last week.
On The Bishop 's point, the first round polls were pretty terrible in general, but they all underestimated Fujimori's support as well as Castillo's. As I said above, the final Ipsos poll had her in fifth position and him seventh. I don't think that shows evidence of a Fujimori bias.
I would also be wary of saying the polling was terrible - things were very fluid, and as there are no polls in the last week, it may be that they were a decent gauge of opinion at the time. Certainly you saw the beginning of Castillo’s rise in the final set of polls. |
|
|
|
Post by johnhemming on Jun 5, 2021 11:28:22 GMT
Another factor which may be relevant is people not wishing to say they are voting for Fujimori.
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849
|
Post by johng on Jun 5, 2021 11:56:34 GMT
Reuters needs to catch up. These are the same polls I posted last week.
On The Bishop 's point, the first round polls were pretty terrible in general, but they all underestimated Fujimori's support as well as Castillo's. As I said above, the final Ipsos poll had her in fifth position and him seventh. I don't think that shows evidence of a Fujimori bias.
I would also be wary of saying the polling was terrible - things were very fluid, and as there are no polls in the last week, it may be that they were a decent gauge of opinion at the time. Certainly you saw the beginning of Castillo’s rise in the final set of polls. I did say that is a previous post and thought it was a given.
The polling can only be described as bad or terrible though. Yes, the situation was fluid and the final few polls did see movement to the two winning candidates, but they were still off by a country mile. Castillo got 12 points more than his best poll and Fujimori 4 more than hers. The simulated votes were a bit more accurate.
Shy Fujimorism is a big issue with the polls along with under-representation of indigenous and rural voters.
|
|
|
|
Post by johnhemming on Jun 6, 2021 9:35:10 GMT
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849
|
Post by johng on Jun 6, 2021 15:49:16 GMT
The final polls certainly give Fujimori the momentum, though they could be wildly off like the first round. I guess not too long to find out as first results should be in by the morning (UK time).
It's quite a sad election really given the two choices.
|
|
