2021 Peruvian Election

[johnhemming]

I assume the rural areas will come in later.

[minionofmidas]

Exit poll Fujimori 50.3. Tctc.

[johng]

The Ipsos exit poll has it Fujimori 50.3 and Castillo 49.7. It has a three point MOE so that is a tie.
The first round Ipsos poll under-counted both candidates, but has generally been pretty accurate and it looks no different this time.

Current numbers with 85.1% counted are:
Keiko Fujimori - 51.01%
Pedro Castillo - 48.99%
(with blanks excluded)

Are there more Castillo or Fujimori areas left to count?

The answer's obviously Castillo, but it's unclear if that'll be enough to put him ahead as Fujimori still has a fair bit of vote uncounted. It certainly looks like no candidate is going to win by anything more than a cat's whisker.

Edit: Official results page is here - www.resultadossep.eleccionesgenerales2021.pe/SEP2021/EleccionesPresidenciales/RePres/T

[OWL]

Talk elsewhere of it going down to the expat vote. Most seem to think that it's not over but likely Fujimori.

[OWL]

88.9% overall (92.1% country, 11% foreign)

Keiko Fujimori 50.5% (47.3%)
Pedro Castillo 49.5% (46.4%)

[johng]

Jun 7, 2021 10:20:27 GMT OWL said:

88.9% overall (92.1% country, 11% foreign)

Keiko Fujimori 50.5% (47.3%)
Pedro Castillo 49.5% (46.4%)

The numbers certainly seem to be swinging Castillo's way, but it's still too close to call given so much of the foreign vote is out.

2016 saw Fujimori on 49.88% (vs. 50.12% for PPK). It looks possible the margin this time might be even tighter.

[The Bishop]

This maybe isn't the ideal election to end up literally "too close to call"

[OWL]

UK expat vote:

Fujimori: 784 (69.1%)
Castillo: 350 (30.7%)
Blank/null: 66

30.2% turnout

[Merseymike]

Jun 7, 2021 10:52:36 GMT The Bishop said:

This maybe isn't the ideal election to end up literally "too close to call"

And its not a great choice, anyway.

There are actually people on both right and left in South America who are reasonable people, so how the hell did Peru end up with these pair of clowns?

[johng]

Latest vote drop with 90.5% counted (Peru 93.8% in and international 11.1% in)

Keiko Fujimori - 50.32%
Pedro Castillo - 49.68%

Jun 7, 2021 11:15:27 GMT Merseymike said:

Jun 7, 2021 10:52:36 GMT The Bishop said:

This maybe isn't the ideal election to end up literally "too close to call"

And its not a great choice, anyway.

There are actually people on both right and left in South America who are reasonable people, so how the hell did Peru end up with these pair of clowns?

That's a bit of an understatement.

It shows the perils of a two-round system. It might seem sensible on paper, but when the top two candidates get less than a third of the vote between them, you get... this.

[OWL]

There is still a vote drop from La Convención which should close much of the gap in Peru. However I understand that he hasn't quite been making up the gap quickly enough. Though still possible that it could hinge on expat (pro-Fujimori) turnout.

[timrollpickering]

A lot of the ex pat vote is still to come including some big countries like Argentina, Chile and the USA and some tiny ones like Andorra.

Countries that have returned usually have Fujimori ahead often by huge percentages and some very tiny votes (the extreme case is India where she has 100% of the votes cast - all 4 of them). Exceptions going for Castillo so far:

Croatia
Cuba
Egypt
Jordan
Norway
Philippines
Russia
Sweden

[johng]

95% of the domestic vote is now in.
Keiko Fujimori - 50.185%
Pedro Castillo - 49.815%

Someone on Twitter who seems to be quite knowledgeable reckons Castillo needs around 50.3% of the domestic vote to win.

There's still just 11.1% of the overseas vote in.

Jun 7, 2021 12:08:48 GMT timrollpickering said:

A lot of the ex pat vote is still to come including some big countries like Argentina, Chile and the USA and some tiny ones like Andorra.

The US is the big one we are waiting for. Not just on the vote, but the turnout too.

Canada voted 76.5% Fujimori on a 41% turnout. She needs something strong like that in the US if she's going to have any chance.

[timrollpickering]

The other big ones to come include Italy, Japan and Spain. There's also still a lot to process in Brazil and Venezuela.

[johng]

Jun 7, 2021 13:16:29 GMT timrollpickering said:

The other big ones to come include Italy, Japan and Spain. There's also still a lot to process in Brazil and Venezuela.

The US has by far the largest Peruvian diaspora. Though it is pretty large in places like Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Japan, Italy and Spain where little or no results are in.

Have any unofficial results come out for these places?

I saw numbers for Tokyo online. 2,938 votes in total with 2,638 (89.8%) for Fujimori and 228 (7.8%) for Castillo with 72 blank/ void. Nothing official though and 0% of the results are in from Japan according to the official website.

[OWL]

Brazilian expats in Japan voted about 90% for Bolsonaro, apparently.

[johnhemming]

I have done some forecasting, but it is difficult to forecast the total number of expat votes and the percentage processed figures don't seem to relate to percentage of votes, but percentage of polling places. That forecasting gives Castillo a majority of about 1K, but I think it is obviously too close to call.

Castillo is piling up like 90+% of some of the rural areas which from an external perspective seems unlikely in a free and fair election, but I don't know the situation on the ground.

[nelson]

Jun 7, 2021 14:14:34 GMT johnhemming said:

I have done some forecasting, but it is difficult to forecast the total number of expat votes and the percentage processed figures don't seem to relate to percentage of votes, but percentage of polling places. That forecasting gives Castillo a majority of about 1K, but I think it is obviously too close to call.

Castillo is piling up like 90+% of some of the rural areas which from an external perspective seems unlikely in a free and fair election, but I don't know the situation on the ground.

Indigenous villagers have no reason to vote for a Fujimori against "one of their own". This election is an ethnic headcount to a higher degree than Peruvian elections usually are (and ethnic voting is already a substantial factor in Peru). We're seeing sub-Saharan Africa levels of ethnic voting this time. 

[johng]

Jun 7, 2021 14:14:34 GMT johnhemming said:

I have done some forecasting, but it is difficult to forecast the total number of expat votes and the percentage processed figures don't seem to relate to percentage of votes, but percentage of polling places. That forecasting gives Castillo a majority of about 1K, but I think it is obviously too close to call.

Castillo is piling up like 90+% of some of the rural areas which from an external perspective seems unlikely in a free and fair election, but I don't know the situation on the ground.

With 96% of the domestic vote in, Fujimori is now on 50.05% and Castillo 49.95%. Just 17k votes separate them with most of the vote out looking very favourable for Castillo.

It looks like he will win 50.2-50.4% of the domestic vote.

It's quite unclear how many votes are out there overseas. The total number of valid votes with 14.6% of stations reporting is 43k, but I don't think this can just be extrapolated out as the percentage refers to ballot boxes rather than voters. There are 3,440 boxes with 503 of them counted. 1,044 of them are in the US with none counted yet. In Canada, each box contained 103 votes whilst in the UK they contained 75, in Romania 20 and in India 4.

Whatever it is, Fujimori will need both a high turnout and to win a significant number of the overseas vote to overcome Castillo's domestic lead.

I have to agree with nelson too. In indigenous villages and areas where they still speak their native languages, it's not too surprising Castillo is getting 90%+. There are wealthy parts of Lima where Fujimori got 85%+ so it's not exactly the only place that's happening.

[OWL]

There are probably going to be just shy of 300,000 expat votes. 
If 50.4% Castillo in Peru, that's a 140,000 vote lead.
That means Fujimori would need 75% of the expat vote.
If 50.2% Castillo in Peru, Fujimori needs 62% of the expat vote.
Most likely she gets 65-70% of the expat vote. So really down to the wire.