johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Jun 7, 2021 16:04:52 GMT
With 93.6% in things couldn't be closer. Fujimori leads with a 0.028 margin.
Castillo has just taken the lead on the domestic count (96.6% counted). Castillo - 50.04% Fujimori - 49.96% Things are only heading in one direction domestically too.
Internationally, 20.6% are now counted and Fujimori retains a sizeable lead. Fujimori - 63.57% Castillo - 36.42% There's still nothing from the US, Spain or Japan which should be fairly strong for Fujimori. I'd expect this margin to increase.
It's still too close to call as the winning margin will be in the region of 0.1%.
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Post by timrollpickering on Jun 7, 2021 17:11:28 GMT
406/480 returns from Argentina and Fujimori leads 20,842 to 15,007 (plus 355 "blank" and 3,049 "null" votes).
Still nothing from the other big countries.
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Post by johnhemming on Jun 7, 2021 18:10:26 GMT
In Peru I have the impression that it is smaller ballot boxes that are now reporting. Hence although they may hold the trend of the region they won't add that many votes.
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,512
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Post by European Lefty on Jun 7, 2021 20:29:26 GMT
Is there a reason that expats are voting so heavily Fujimori?
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Post by curiousliberal on Jun 7, 2021 20:32:04 GMT
Is there a reason that expats are voting so heavily Fujimori? Urban/rural (jetsetters are more likely to be of the former group) and wealth divides.
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Post by relique on Jun 7, 2021 20:43:46 GMT
Castillo is now ahead in the overall count 50,18 / 49,82 % with 50,235% on the count inside peruvian boundaries and 37,7% in foreign countries.
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Post by emsworth on Jun 7, 2021 21:02:17 GMT
Castillo is now ahead in the overall count 50,18 / 49,82 % with 50,235% on the count inside peruvian boundaries and 37,7% in foreign countries. This is turnout. 24.6% counted.
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Post by emsworth on Jun 7, 2021 21:02:27 GMT
Peru 98% in and 50.235% to 49.765% for Castillo. Remaining areas Castillo but not monolithically from what I can tell. So probably 50.3% for Castillo.
That means Fujimori needs 70% of the expat vote on current turnout. Right now she is on 62% but that will increase when America comes in. So it really is down to the wire. My hunch is Castillo though.
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Post by relique on Jun 7, 2021 21:04:12 GMT
Castillo is now ahead in the overall count 50,18 / 49,82 % with 50,235% on the count inside peruvian boundaries and 37,7% in foreign countries. This is turnout. 24.6% counted. Not in the website I'm on:
PARTIDO POLITICO NACIONAL PERU LIBRE 27,998 37.700% 34.916% FUERZA POPULAR 46,268 62.300% 57.700%
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Post by emsworth on Jun 7, 2021 21:11:43 GMT
This is turnout. 24.6% counted. Not in the website I'm on:
PARTIDO POLITICO NACIONAL PERU LIBRE 27,998 37.700% 34.916% FUERZA POPULAR 46,268 62.300% 57.700%
Haha, what a coincidence; they're both 37.7.%. Sorry. 37.871 % (%) Participación Ciudadana 24.651 % Actas Procesadas (37.9% now)
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,512
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Post by European Lefty on Jun 7, 2021 21:17:26 GMT
Does anybody know if there's a recount procedure? Could get messy if it ends up being decided by a few thousand votes either way
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Post by curiousliberal on Jun 7, 2021 22:21:37 GMT
At least it isn't going to be 52-48.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Jun 7, 2021 23:42:56 GMT
With 98.7% of the domestic vote in: Castillo - 50.3% Fujimori - 49.7% There isn't much left, but what is favours Castillo meaning he'll probably end up on around 50.5% of the domestic vote which is very probably too much to overcome with the overseas vote. On the overseas vote, it is very slowly coming in and they are up to a quarter of boxes now. Though still nothing from the US, Spain or Italy yet. Does anybody know if there's a recount procedure? Could get messy if it ends up being decided by a few thousand votes either way I was wondering the same. Fujimori lost 49.88 - 50.12 to PPK back in 2016 and conceded five days later. She led opposition to him in Congress and he was impeached after a second attempt less than two years after his election (the first was eventually foiled by Fujimori's brother who got PPK to agree to pardon daddy Fujimori). The difference this time is that the establishment is firmly against Castillo and there is likely already a sufficient margin in Congress to impeach him. Though this is Peru so dodgy dealing are always to be expected.
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Post by redvers on Jun 8, 2021 0:44:11 GMT
I recall that a poster on this thread said Castillo is the least worst of two very bad options because at least he would have limited control of the organs of power. Only so much damage he could cause. Fujimori, on the other hand, has many more allies ready to cause trouble. Found that a very perceptive post and have to agree with it. Either way, Peruvian democracy is in a bad place right now...though when is it never!
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Post by froome on Jun 8, 2021 7:44:20 GMT
With 98.7% of the domestic vote in: Castillo - 50.3% Fujimori - 49.7% There isn't much left, but what is favours Castillo meaning he'll probably end up on around 50.5% of the domestic vote which is very probably too much to overcome with the overseas vote. On the overseas vote, it is very slowly coming in and they are up to a quarter of boxes now. Though still nothing from the US, Spain or Italy yet. I assume overseas votes are flown in to Peru to be counted, but do some countries with larger diasporas do their counts locally?
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 8, 2021 8:08:40 GMT
Just like last time there are 2 candidates with minority support who are widely mistrusted. Normally in other countries the run off process gives a more palatable choice.
I’ve told this story before, but when I was in Peru at the time if the 2011 presidential election, our guides were reluctantly looking to support Fujimori as the least worst choice, although they were very wary. They feared for their livelihood if Humala was elected. I passed on to them my Economist, which had an article about Humala, and how he was taking advice from Dilma Rousseff. This led to a long animated discussion amongst the crew, which was too fast for me to follow, with my limited Spanish. Clearly I (or more accurately the Economist), had provided new information. I’ve no idea of course how they eventually voted, but Humala turned out not to be the bogeyman that some Peruvians feared.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 8, 2021 8:38:34 GMT
Fujimori is claiming fraud, presumably in the rural areas. I agree that this election was always going to be bad news bears for Peru, and sadly seems to have wrangled the worst possible outcome from this.
However, I do disagree with the consensus above. If I were Peruvian, I'd have went reluctantly for Keiko F.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Jun 8, 2021 9:31:12 GMT
Things continue to look incredibly close.
Castillo - 50.29% Fujimori 49.71%
The devil is in the detail of course.
With 99.1% in domestically, the domestic figures are:
Castillo - 50.37%
Fujimori - 49.63%
Overall, the few remaining places to declare lean Castillo, but not massively. He'll probably end up a touch under 50.5% from the domestic vote.
Internationally, 32.0% of boxes have now been reported. Fujimori - 64.40% Castillo - 35.60% The first boxes from the US have reported and 15% are now in. The good news for Fujimori is she has won 80% of the vote so far (and no votes from Miami, her strongest area, are in yet). The bad news for her is turnout was under 30%. Elsewhere, there is still nothing from Japan or Italy and very little from Spain or Chile.
Fujimori claiming fraud means she realises that this is almost certainly lost for her. It'll be with an even smaller margin than 2016 too.
I assume overseas votes are flown in to Peru to be counted, but do some countries with larger diasporas do their counts locally? No they're counted wherever people vote. Even in India with four voters which sort of removes secrecy from the ballot (The four in India all voted Fujimori).
Just like last time there are 2 candidates with minority support who are widely mistrusted. Normally in other countries the run off process gives a more palatable choice. I’ve told this story before, but when I was in Peru at the time if the 2011 presidential election, our guides were reluctantly looking to support Fujimori as the least worst choice, although they were very wary. They feared for their livelihood if Humala was elected. I passed on to them my Economist, which had an article about Humala, and how he was taking advice from Dilma Rousseff. This led to a long animated discussion amongst the crew, which was too fast for me to follow, with my limited Spanish. Clearly I (or more accurately the Economist), had provided new information. I’ve no idea of course how they eventually voted, but Humala turned out not to be the bogeyman that some Peruvians feared. It has already been said, but the run-off system undoubtedly provided two poor choices for Peruvians. Fujimorism still has support in the country, but the hardcore can't number more than 10%. Castillo was helped in the first round by being one of the few left-wing candidates in a field dominated by right-wingers and by being the most prominent indigenous candidate.
On Castillo, he has already rowed back on a number of his previous pledges. Gone is talk of nationalising the large mining sector and similar. That might have been an electoral strategy, but it might also have been reality. Right-wing parties don't just have a majority in Congress, they have more than two-thirds of the seats. That's with the proviso that it's not unusual in Peru for a party to have both a left and right wing faction and that most can be defined as populist and they sail with the wind/ bribes.
When/ if Castillo wins, I don't think anyone really expects his to serve out his full-term.
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nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
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Post by nelson on Jun 8, 2021 13:16:52 GMT
Unless turnout from the remaining US voting stations is much higher than from the ones already counted Castillo has won, and apart from Miami that doesn't seem likely. On current turnout and voting patterns Fujimori would need more than 85% of the remaining expat vote and that's unrealistic.
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Post by timrollpickering on Jun 8, 2021 14:07:44 GMT
Fujimori is taking over 93% in Japan so far (76/119 reporting). However she's on 64.27% in Spain (albeit with only 21/514) and trailing in Italy with 48.24% (40/321) and Chile with 49.41% (55/392).
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