|
|
Post by johnhemming on Apr 15, 2021 12:33:02 GMT
Making a stab at it from that then we have:
Party Votes % Castillo Fujimori
Pedro Castillo Free Peru 2,644,601 19.11 19.11
Keiko Fujimori Popular Force 1,848,889 13.36 13.36
Rafael López Aliaga Popular Renewal 1,614,990 11.67 3.89 7.78
Hernando de Soto Go on Country - Social Integration Party 1,605,381 11.6 1.16 10.44
Yonhy Lescano Popular Action 1,262,204 9.12 8.208 0.912
Verónika Mendoza Together for Peru 1,086,616 7.85 7.85
César Acuña Alliance for Progress 836,973 6.05 0.605 5.445
Daniel Urresti Podemos Perú 780,034 5.64 0.564 5.076
George Forsyth National Victory 778,852 5.63 0.563 5.067
Julio Guzmán Purple Party 310,714 2.25 0.225 2.025
Alberto Beingolea Christian People's Party 272,708 1.97 0.197 1.773
Daniel Salaverry We Are Peru 229,758 1.66 0.166 1.494
Ollanta Humala Peruvian Nationalist Party 220,555 1.59 0.159 1.431
José Vega Union for Peru 97,472 0.7 0.7
Ciro Gálvez National United Renaissance 86,235 0.62 0.62
Marco Arana Broad Front 62,551 0.45 0.45
Rafael Santos Peru Secure Homeland 52,957 0.38 0.038 0.342
Andrés Alcántara Direct Democracy 48,751 0.35 0.35
44.855 55.145
|
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Apr 15, 2021 12:37:02 GMT
Also ... I can't believe it's taken me this long to realise how terrible a two-round electoral system is. In my head, it's always just been "instant runoff with a bit more time to think about it". Where were you at the time of Chirac's reelection!? Or a system which looks as if it will provide a choice between Le Pen and Macron for a second time. |
|
|
|
Post by Richard Cromwell on Apr 15, 2021 13:02:01 GMT
Also ... I can't believe it's taken me this long to realise how terrible a two-round electoral system is. In my head, it's always just been "instant runoff with a bit more time to think about it". Where were you at the time of Chirac's reelection!? Primary school. |
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426 
|
Post by iain on Apr 15, 2021 16:04:48 GMT
Making a stab at it from that then we have:
Party Votes % Castillo Fujimori
Pedro Castillo Free Peru 2,644,601 19.11 19.11
Keiko Fujimori Popular Force 1,848,889 13.36 13.36
Rafael López Aliaga Popular Renewal 1,614,990 11.67 3.89 7.78
Hernando de Soto Go on Country - Social Integration Party 1,605,381 11.6 1.16 10.44
Yonhy Lescano Popular Action 1,262,204 9.12 8.208 0.912
Verónika Mendoza Together for Peru 1,086,616 7.85 7.85
César Acuña Alliance for Progress 836,973 6.05 0.605 5.445
Daniel Urresti Podemos Perú 780,034 5.64 0.564 5.076
George Forsyth National Victory 778,852 5.63 0.563 5.067
Julio Guzmán Purple Party 310,714 2.25 0.225 2.025
Alberto Beingolea Christian People's Party 272,708 1.97 0.197 1.773
Daniel Salaverry We Are Peru 229,758 1.66 0.166 1.494
Ollanta Humala Peruvian Nationalist Party 220,555 1.59 0.159 1.431
José Vega Union for Peru 97,472 0.7 0.7
Ciro Gálvez National United Renaissance 86,235 0.62 0.62
Marco Arana Broad Front 62,551 0.45 0.45
Rafael Santos Peru Secure Homeland 52,957 0.38 0.038 0.342
Andrés Alcántara Direct Democracy 48,751 0.35 0.35
44.855 55.145
That looks like a reasonable stab. The problem with it is, though, that Fujimori is so personally unpopular that Castillo could end up winning anyway. The issue that Castillo has is that he basically seems to have 'won' the first round because he was flavour of the month week. Fujimori is basically the only candidate who has managed to retain a reasonable amount of support (if you can call 10% reasonable) for any period of time, and if the election had been a week or two later then she'd probably be facing a different random candidate. He needs to make this a referendum on Fujimori / corruption, because that is a fight he should really win. |
|
|
|
Post by johnhemming on Apr 17, 2021 9:37:17 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by johnhemming on Apr 18, 2021 18:19:45 GMT
|
|
Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,729
Member is Online
|
Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 18, 2021 19:12:02 GMT
Well, I expect that he's now "cancelled". |
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Apr 18, 2021 19:49:39 GMT
Llosa ran to Fujimori Sr's Right. He is very conservative |
|
|
|
Post by johnhemming on Apr 19, 2021 6:08:45 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Apr 19, 2021 7:10:16 GMT
El diario has the “ultraizquierdista” Castillo ahead of the “derechista autoritaria” Fujimori. A little oversimplified I feel. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 19, 2021 9:09:50 GMT
Llosa ran to Fujimori Sr's Right. He is very conservative Yes, but he still had a reputation of standing up for liberal democratic norms. This is sad from him in multiple senses. |
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849
|
Post by johng on Apr 19, 2021 10:29:40 GMT
This first poll since the first round. There were a hell of a lot of undecided/ blank vote/ no vote in the poll though.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
|
Post by iain on Apr 19, 2021 14:19:15 GMT
Llosa ran to Fujimori Sr's Right. He is very conservative Yes, but he still had a reputation of standing up for liberal democratic norms. This is sad from him in multiple senses. But look at who she is running against. It isn’t as though Castillo is some great defender of democracy. |
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
|
Post by iain on Apr 21, 2021 20:30:27 GMT
|
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
|
Post by Foggy on Apr 22, 2021 5:05:27 GMT
Where were you at the time of Chirac's reelection!? Primary school. I was doing my French AS level! I had you down as substantially older than that, for whatever reason.  |
|
|
|
Post by johnhemming on Apr 22, 2021 5:44:55 GMT
There is an interesting point here if members of the congress are unable to stand for re-election. If there is a dissolution of congress then they all get fired so they are more likely to do what the president wants. |
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Apr 22, 2021 7:04:14 GMT
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849
|
Post by johng on May 1, 2021 0:08:23 GMT
The gap between the two candidates continues to narrow. TBF, that's totally unsurprising considering the ups and down of most candidates during the campaign. Castillo was very lucky election day was on his day for an 'up'. If it had been a month earlier or later...
Anyway, the polls shows a 2.5% margin between them.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
|
Post by iain on May 4, 2021 8:38:30 GMT
Counting for the first round has finished, and these are the results:
Pedro Castillo (Peru Libre) - 18.921%
Keiko Fujimori (Fuerza Popular) - 13.407%
Rafael Lopez Aliaga (Renovación Popular) - 11.751%
Hernando de Soto (Avanza País) - 11.626%
Yonhy Lescano (Acción Popular) - 9.071%
Veronika Mendoza (Juntos por el Perú) - 7.865%
Cesar Acuña (Alianza para el Progreso) - 6.021%
George Forsyth (Victoria Nacional) - 5.656%
Daniel Urresti (Podemos Perú) - 5.644%
Julio Guzmán (Partido Morado) - 2.261%
Alberto Beingolea (Partido Popular Cristiano) - 1.989%
Daniel Salaverry (Somos Perú) - 1.668%
Ollanta Humala (Partido Nacionalista Peruano) - 1.603%
José Vega (Unión por el Perú) - 0.703%
Ciro Gálvez (Renacimiento Unido Nacional) - 0.621%
Marca Arana (Frente Amplio) - 0.453%
Rafael Santos (Peru Patria Segura) - 0.386%
Andrés Alcántara (Democracia Directa) - 0.353%
In terms of votes cast, rather than valid votes:
Castillo - 2,724,752 (15.382%)
Blank Votes - 2,190,059 (12.364%)
Fujimori - 1,930,762 (10.900%)
Lopez Aliaga - 1,692,279 (9.553%)
de Soto - 1,674,201 (9.451%)
Lescano - 1,306,288 (7.374%)
Mendoza - 1,132,577 (6.394%)
Null Votes - 1,123,027 (6.340%)
|
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on May 4, 2021 18:40:28 GMT
Counting for the first round has finished, and these are the results: Pedro Castillo (Peru Libre) - 18.921% Keiko Fujimori (Fuerza Popular) - 13.407% Rafael Lopez Aliaga (Renovación Popular) - 11.751% Hernando de Soto (Avanza País) - 11.626% Yonhy Lescano (Acción Popular) - 9.071% Veronika Mendoza (Juntos por el Perú) - 7.865% Cesar Acuña (Alianza para el Progreso) - 6.021% George Forsyth (Victoria Nacional) - 5.656% Daniel Urresti (Podemos Perú) - 5.644% Julio Guzmán (Partido Morado) - 2.261% Alberto Beingolea (Partido Popular Cristiano) - 1.989% Daniel Salaverry (Somos Perú) - 1.668% Ollanta Humala (Partido Nacionalista Peruano) - 1.603% José Vega (Unión por el Perú) - 0.703% Ciro Gálvez (Renacimiento Unido Nacional) - 0.621% Marca Arana (Frente Amplio) - 0.453% Rafael Santos (Peru Patria Segura) - 0.386% Andrés Alcántara (Democracia Directa) - 0.353% In terms of votes cast, rather than valid votes: Castillo - 2,724,752 (15.382%) Blank Votes - 2,190,059 (12.364%)
Fujimori - 1,930,762 (10.900%) Lopez Aliaga - 1,692,279 (9.553%) de Soto - 1,674,201 (9.451%) Lescano - 1,306,288 (7.374%) Mendoza - 1,132,577 (6.394%) Null Votes - 1,123,027 (6.340%)
imagining a Castillo vs nota runoff (nota wd win tho') |
|
