2021 Peruvian Election

[johnhemming]

The forecast I did this morning was 50.3 49.7 for Castillo.

[johnhemming]

Jun 8, 2021 9:31:12 GMT johng said:

Fujimori claiming fraud means she realises that this is almost certainly lost for her.

Although Trump's nonsense did not help in this area I am sympathetic to people who are inclined to fight electoral fraud. Our big battle in Birmingham, however, was when we had actually just knocked Labour out of office in Birmingham although Labour did win a number of seats based upon fraud (some of which were then disqualified).

[johnhemming]

Does anyone know what happens with "Minutes sent to the JNE". The JNE is the adjudication panel for elections. Peru Libre have challenged a lot of the vote tallies in places like Lima. Does that mean that the votes are provisionally counted, but potentially changed or do they discount the votes until the JNE has adjudicated on them?

That may not be enough to swing the election result, but it is worth knowing the totals.

[johnhemming]

I have looked at the contested ballot boxes and done a list by department of the numbers challenged. I see what they mean:

			Department
	Contested results		
Procs	Normal	Diff	
1105	1101	4	Amazonas
3102	3095	7	Ancash
1125	1117	8	Apurimac
3950	3924	26	Arequipa
1704	1694	10	Ayacucho
3828	3822	6	Cajamarca
2754	2700	54	Callao
3373	3359	14	Cusco
1094	1088	6	Huancavelica
2051	2047	4	Huanuco
2223	2204	19	Ica
3424	3411	13	Junin
4852	4810	42	La Libertad
3333	3323	10	Lambayeque
27942	27354	588	Lima
2369	2338	31	Loreto
396	389	7	Madre de Dios
524	524	0	Moquegua
695	695	0	Pasco
4811	4748	63	Piura
3163	3159	4	Puno
2188	2172	16	San Martin
974	974	0	Tacna
574	573	1	Tumbes
1317	1305	12	Ucayali
3094	2751	343	Peruvians Abroad
85965	84677	1288	Total

Edit: 9.40

Making assumptions that the boxes in suspense (if they are) are similar in size and balance to the rest of the area one would conclude that it would make a difference of about 40K for Fujimori. However, it looks like there is a particular effort to do this both in Lima and Abroad. Hence it is entirely possible that this is PL doing this in boxes that are stronger for Fujimori. That then has the ability of coming close to the majority. I don't think this aspect is predictable at the moment.

[relique]

Well, that's it. Castillon won. All overseas ballots have been counted. There are only 177 areas to add, all inside peruvian frontiers and all in areas Castilla won with 56 to 85% of the votes.

[johnhemming]

I would like to know what this actually means: ACTAS ENVIADAS AL JNE 1,260
The JNE is Jurado Nacional de Elecciones

My guess is that these ballot boxes are not in the count as yet and won't be until the JNE has adjudicated on them. Now it may be that Fujimori is trying to kick a few more ballot boxes in that direction.

[iain]

Jun 9, 2021 11:05:08 GMT relique said:

Well, that's it. Castillon won. All overseas ballots have been counted. There are only 177 areas to add, all inside peruvian frontiers and all in areas Castilla won with 56 to 85% of the votes.

Not yet - 100% has been processed, but only a smidge under 90% has been counted.

[iain]

Jun 9, 2021 13:55:44 GMT johnhemming said:

I would like to know what this actually means: ACTAS ENVIADAS AL JNE 1,260
The JNE is Jurado Nacional de Elecciones

My guess is that these ballot boxes are not in the count as yet and won't be until the JNE has adjudicated on them. Now it may be that Fujimori is trying to kick a few more ballot boxes in that direction.

There is info here - peru21.pe/lima/elecciones-2021-cuantas-actas-impugnadas-hay-y-que-ocurre-con-ellas-nndc-noticia/

[johnhemming]

Jun 9, 2021 14:52:14 GMT iain said:

There is info here - peru21.pe/lima/elecciones-2021-cuantas-actas-impugnadas-hay-y-que-ocurre-con-ellas-nndc-noticia/

Thanks for that. So the outcome is not yet certain.

The press reports have Fujimori saying something about challenging some more votes. Do you know anything about that?

Later Edit I have found this:
www.swissinfo.ch/eng/reuters/peru-s-socialists-lead-tight-election-as-battle-brews-over-result/46691112

[nelson]

Map by "Talk Elections" poster Shilly:

[johnhemming]

www.france24.com/en/americas/20210610-fujimori-seeks-ballots-annulled-as-leftist-castillo-leads-in-peru-election

Late Wednesday Fujimori asked the National Electoral Tribunal (JNE) to annul the results of 802 polling stations, the equivalent of 200,000 votes.

She also asked for another 300,000 votes to be reviewed, so “half a million votes are in play,” she said at a press conference.

One good think about the OPNE website is you can get to see the returns from individual ballot boxes. I can give a link to that if anyone is interested.

[yellowperil]

Jun 10, 2021 3:56:27 GMT nelson said:

Map by "Talk Elections" poster Shilly:

Would also gone well on the Pretty maps thread- a very pretty map indeed. Probably reflects the quality and detail available from the Peruvian authorites, plus the fact that its a runoff election so only two options and very closely balanced between the two.

I remain a bit conflicted, though- I would be on the red side of the argument here, if only the anyone but Fujimori side, but overwhelmingly the bits of Peru I know at first hand and most love are coloured in deep blue.

[johng]

I am not sure how successful Fujimori's strategy will be.

With 99.998% of the results in, the results are:
Castillo - 8,791,778
Fujimori - 8,720,337

A tiny margin of course at a touch of 70,000 votes.

How is she going to get these 200k votes annulled and 300k reviewed. The map above posted by nelson basically shows an ethnic map of the country. In rural, heavily indigenous areas across the country outside of the Amazon, Castillo got in the region of 90% of the vote.

[johnhemming]

Jun 10, 2021 10:52:23 GMT johng said:

I am not sure how successful Fujimori's strategy will be.

My low estimate of the votes currently in suspense (before any more go there) are a potential benefit to Fujimori of 28,000, but actually if those are part of 300,000 votes which are 2/3 fujimori (I looked at one of the box returns which was over 2/3 Fujimori) then that could give her a benefit of 100K and then there are other votes.

If she knocks out some of the 80% Castillo boxes (with good cause potentially) then that has an effect.

In the end for stability in the country transparency on this is key.

I still remember the election court in Birmingham that handled Aston and Bordesley Green in which Labour activists had fabricated up to half of the votes cast in Bordesley Green.

If Peru has a process which happens before the count is finalised then that is not a bad system.

People are really far too complacent about election fraud. I don't agree with my own party on Voter ID for example. Turning a blind eye to personation is not a good strategy.

[relique]

Jun 10, 2021 10:59:30 GMT johnhemming said:

Jun 10, 2021 10:52:23 GMT johng said:

I am not sure how successful Fujimori's strategy will be.

My low estimate of the votes currently in suspense (before any more go there) are a potential benefit to Fujimori of 28,000, but actually if those are part of 300,000 votes which are 2/3 fujimori (I looked at one of the box returns which was over 2/3 Fujimori) then that could give her a benefit of 100K and then there are other votes.

If she knocks out some of the 80% Castillo boxes (with good cause potentially) then that has an effect.

In the end for stability in the country transparency on this is key.

I still remember the election court in Birmingham that handled Aston and Bordesley Green in which Labour activists had fabricated up to half of the votes cast in Bordesley Green.

If Peru has a process which happens before the count is finalised then that is not a bad system.

People are really far too complacent about election fraud. I don't agree with my own party on Voter ID for example. Turning a blind eye to personation is not a good strategy.

Is it the same "good cause" as in Bolivia: voting while brown ?

[The Bishop]

Any actual reason to think Fujimori's claims of "a stolen election" are any more valid than Trump's?

Or indeed that if some dodgy business has gone on, it hasn't been practised by both sides??

[matureleft]

I think we can all applaud the seeming relative calm with which a narrow provisional result between almost polar opposites has been greeted so far.

[johnhemming]

Jun 10, 2021 12:11:28 GMT matureleft said:

I think we can all applaud the seeming relative calm with which a narrow provisional result between almost polar opposites has been greeted so far.

I think that is true. I would say part of this is that their system for challenging ballot boxes is quite transparent.

However, it has the potential of getting quite nasty.

[johnhemming]

Jun 10, 2021 11:35:16 GMT relique said:

Is it the same "good cause" as in Bolivia: voting while brown ?

At the moment we have no idea what evidence there is. We know that Trump did not have any.

There is, however, a legal process for challenging ballot boxes in Peru which has been functioning.

I retain an open mind on the because I have seen so much election fraud (or moreso evidence of it) in Birmingham over the years.

[Chris from Brum]

Jun 10, 2021 16:32:14 GMT johnhemming said:

Jun 10, 2021 11:35:16 GMT relique said:

Is it the same "good cause" as in Bolivia: voting while brown ?

At the moment we have no idea what evidence there is. We know that Trump did not have any.

There is, however, a legal process for challenging ballot boxes in Peru which has been functioning.

I retain an open mind on the because I have seen so much election fraud (or moreso evidence of it) in Birmingham over the years.

John, do you think it still goes on in Birmingham, and if so, what can be done about it?