2021 Peruvian Election

[johnhemming]

Jun 10, 2021 16:56:29 GMT Chris from Brum said:

John, do you think it still goes on in Birmingham, and if so, what can be done about it?

I would expect personation from time to time.

Requiring Voter ID would be a good idea.

[ibfc]

It would be very naive to believe that there has been no impersonation in an election of this nature and am fairly sure that both sides would’ve done it. It’s good though that there seems to be some system to adjudicate these claims.

[johnhemming]

Jun 10, 2021 17:36:33 GMT ibfc said:

It would be very naive to believe that there has been no impersonation in an election of this nature and am fairly sure that both sides would’ve done it. It’s good though that there seems to be some system to adjudicate these claims.

There is a system in the UK, the election petition, but it is a really expensive legal process.

[ibfc]

Jun 10, 2021 17:47:42 GMT johnhemming said:

Jun 10, 2021 17:36:33 GMT ibfc said:

It would be very naive to believe that there has been no impersonation in an election of this nature and am fairly sure that both sides would’ve done it. It’s good though that there seems to be some system to adjudicate these claims.

There is a system in the UK, the election petition, but it is a really expensive legal process.

Even we have that system in India but that takes so long that cases sometimes don't even finish before the end of the term of the relevant legislature.

[johnhemming]

The prosecutor appears to be trying to get Fujimori back in prison.

[johng]

Peru has national ID cards and people have to present them to vote. That doesn't stop fraud of course, but greatly limits one avenue.


To add to the point above. The public prosecutor wants her back in jail for not following her bail conditions in the Odebrecht case rather than anything in relation to the election.

[johnhemming]

Jun 10, 2021 21:34:46 GMT johng said:

The final results from ONPE are now in.

Castillo - 8,802,336 - 50.202%
Fujimori - 8,731,562 - 49.798%

Looking at:
www.resultadossep.eleccionesgenerales2021.pe/SEP2021/EleccionesPresidenciales/RePres/T

ACTAS PROCESADAS 100.000% (*) 86,488
Contabilizadas Normales (A) 85,927
ACTAS ENVIADAS AL JNE
Con Votos Impugnados 203
Con Error Material 60
Con Ilegibilidad 22
Incompleta 35
Con Solicitud de Nulidad 0
Acta sin datos 0
Acta Extraviada 0
Acta Siniestrada 0
Acta sin firmas 24
Con más de un tipo de Observación 36
ANULADAS POR RESOLUCIÓN
Contabilizadas Anuladas (L) 175
Actas de Mesas No Instaladas (M) 6

I read that as they still have about 300 ballot boxes to process at the JNE.

[iain]

Jun 10, 2021 21:34:46 GMT johng said:

The final results from ONPE are now in.

Castillo - 8,802,336 - 50.202%
Fujimori - 8,731,562 - 49.798%


The margin between the candidates is slightly larger than Fujimori's 2016 loss at a touch over seventy thousand votes.

Peru has national ID cards and people have to present them to vote. That doesn't stop fraud of course, but greatly limits one avenue.


To add to the point above. The public prosecuter wants her back in jail for not following her bail conditions in the Odebrecht case rather than anything in relation to the election.

They aren’t in yet - ignore the “procesadas”, and scroll down to “contabilizadas” to see how much has been counted (99.561%).

[johnhemming]

Jun 11, 2021 7:42:19 GMT iain said:

They aren’t in yet - ignore the “procesadas”, and scroll down to “contabilizadas” to see how much has been counted (99.561%).

There is also the question as to whether Fujumori's lot manage to kick out another 802 boxes or not. (which may not keep them out, but could happen). I don't know enough about the Peruvian election law to work out what is likely to happen for that.

[johng]

Jun 11, 2021 7:42:19 GMT iain said:

They aren’t in yet - ignore the “procesadas”, and scroll down to “contabilizadas” to see how much has been counted (99.561%).

Apologies. I was just reporting what I read in a news article online.

[Merseymike]

Best bet would be for Fujimori to go back to prison - which is almost inevitably going to happen sooner or later.

Castillo is a bit of a throwback, but he doesn't actually appear to be corrupt.

[johnhemming]

I have seen this:

en.mercopress.com/2021/06/10/peru-s-elections-castillo-claims-victory-by-around-80-000-votes-fujimori-will-challenge-the-results-legally

Fuerza Popular has announced it will seek the annulment of Castillo's votes, especially in the centre and south of the country, where they claim there was “fraud”.

The disputed 802 minutes ”represent 200 thousand votes,“ Fujimori explained, meaning that if the annulments are granted those votes must with subtracted from the total tally.

Fujimori later added other minutes to the complaints, meaning there were ”500,000 votes are at stake,” although she insisted she would accept the final decision of the electoral authorities.

But according to Electoral law scholars only bribery, intimidation or violence are plausible causes for an annulment after election day.

Before this question of 802 ballot boxes is considered there is perhaps between 100 and 200 boxes to go which could knock about 10K off the majority and take it down to 40K

[nelson]

Jun 12, 2021 7:40:04 GMT johnhemming said:

I have seen this:

en.mercopress.com/2021/06/10/peru-s-elections-castillo-claims-victory-by-around-80-000-votes-fujimori-will-challenge-the-results-legally

Fuerza Popular has announced it will seek the annulment of Castillo's votes, especially in the centre and south of the country, where they claim there was “fraud”.

The disputed 802 minutes ”represent 200 thousand votes,“ Fujimori explained, meaning that if the annulments are granted those votes must with subtracted from the total tally.

Fujimori later added other minutes to the complaints, meaning there were ”500,000 votes are at stake,” although she insisted she would accept the final decision of the electoral authorities.

But according to Electoral law scholars only bribery, intimidation or violence are plausible causes for an annulment after election day.

Before this question of 802 ballot boxes is considered there is perhaps between 100 and 200 boxes to go which could knock about 10K off the majority and take it down to 40K

JNE (voting in plenum) has denied the Fujimori campaign's request to extend the deadline for reviewing votes, which means they were only able to challenge 151 actas, far from enough to change anything.

There are 45 expat polling stations to be reviewed by the JNE likely to net her 2k votes and 69 in Peru (67 in Lima and two in provincial Fujimori strongholds), which should net her another 4k votes. Since Castillo leads by 51k atm the final result is likely to be Castillo winning by around 45k. 

[johnhemming]

It looks like Fujimori's campaign is not that good at Peruvian election law.

[The Bishop]

Does that remind you of anything?

[Deleted]

So the next step is that the USA decides the election was rigged despite a complete lack of evidence, invades, overthrows Castillo and installs Fujimori as head of a compliant dictatorship

[johnhemming]

Jun 12, 2021 11:43:09 GMT @europeanlefty said:

So the next step is that the USA decides the election was rigged despite a complete lack of evidence, invades, overthrows Castillo and installs Fujimori as head of a compliant dictatorship

I would not think so. What appears to be the case about Peru is that power is distributed rather than held by the president.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jun 11, 2021 17:05:01 GMT Merseymike said:

Best bet would be for Fujimori to go back to prison - which is almost inevitably going to happen sooner or later.

Castillo is a bit of a throwback, but he doesn't actually appear to be corrupt.

Id have thought you'd not be much of a fan of Castillo either given his comments on LGBT matters!

[nelson]

Jun 12, 2021 11:43:09 GMT @europeanlefty said:

So the next step is that the USA decides the election was rigged despite a complete lack of evidence, invades, overthrows Castillo and installs Fujimori as head of a compliant dictatorship

It only takes 2/3 of the Peruvian Congress to impeach a president. The combined Left, which is internally divided, have 43 of 130 seats between them, one less than required to block an impeachment, so Castillo's position will be quite tenuous and he'll need to work with centrists to get anything done. His many moderate statements in the latter part of the campaign and post-election reflects that. He's obviously also aware that winning by a whisker against the candidate of the authoritarian right isn't a mandate to pursue a hard left agenda, most of his support came from moderate (centre-left & centre-right) anti-Fujimori votes. 

Unlike in Venezuela, where Chavez had the support of a group of younger officers that came from a poor non-white background like himself, Castillo will have no support in the security forces (which Fujimori would have had, making her far more likely to actually govern in an authoritarian manner). 

[Merseymike]

Jun 12, 2021 13:45:45 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Jun 11, 2021 17:05:01 GMT Merseymike said:

Best bet would be for Fujimori to go back to prison - which is almost inevitably going to happen sooner or later.

Castillo is a bit of a throwback, but he doesn't actually appear to be corrupt.

Id have thought you'd not be much of a fan of Castillo either given his comments on LGBT matters!

I'm not. However, Fujimori only got out of prison on a technicality. I don't think having someone known to be a corrupt criminal in power is a good idea.
With Castillo - yes, pretty typical tankie views - unusual for South America these days where the left are generally more pro LGBT,but one positive is that there has been some contact with LGBT groups and many who have supported him don't actually agree. I think he may well, therefore, be exposed to different views from others on the left and he will need to be aware of that giving the very small majority.