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Post by No Offence Alan on May 12, 2021 12:06:30 GMT
Two things have to happen for Labour to win here - nationalist fatigue and Unionist tactical voting. Are both likely? I see no evidence of that Tactical voting is harder (from the voter's perspective) in a Westminster election than a Holyrood one because there is no parallel party list vote to give your "true" vote to. |
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Post by minionofmidas on May 12, 2021 19:10:39 GMT
The guy who caused this unnecessary by-election received an absolute majority last week. I don't think there's any degree of tactical voting by Unionists that would put this seat in play.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,763
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Post by right on May 13, 2021 8:50:02 GMT
Two things have to happen for Labour to win here - nationalist fatigue and Unionist tactical voting. Are both likely? I see no evidence of that Tactical voting is harder (from the voter's perspective) in a Westminster election than a Holyrood one because there is no parallel party list vote to give your "true" vote to. Tactical voting is also easier for Conservatives in Labour seats than the other way round. The Tories may find a call for a tactical vote to be a good way to get around what could be a dire looking result (although they have brazen these results out before). It might also be a way of tarnishing a Scottish Labour victory in a way that makes it less transferable to Labour south of the border. EDIT: Also tactical voting is pretty much expected at by-elections, as plenty of opposition party and Liberal wins have shown. |
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Clark
Forum Regular
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Post by Clark on May 13, 2021 9:03:40 GMT
Labour seem to have a strong stubborn support in the Fortissat ward (Shotts) but it's still a tall order for them. One analyst on this site concluded that it might have been the only ward they carried in the whole of Scotland at the 2016 Scottish election.
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markf
Non-Aligned
a victim of IDS
Posts: 318 
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Post by markf on May 13, 2021 15:00:37 GMT
Hi all is there a byelection special tonight on any channel,thanks
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,730
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 13, 2021 15:44:16 GMT
Hi all is there a byelection special tonight on any channel,thanks Try this one ...
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markf
Non-Aligned
a victim of IDS
Posts: 318
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Post by markf on May 13, 2021 15:49:07 GMT
Hi all is there a byelection special tonight on any channel,thanks Try this one ...
Lol thanks 😂 |
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Post by yellowperil on May 13, 2021 19:08:56 GMT
Is it being counted overnight? I am assuming so, but in these funny old times nothing can be taken for granted anymore.
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on May 13, 2021 20:45:13 GMT
BBC politics page just after the polls close will probably have a story about it revealing when the count is and when a result is expected. Personally, as this will most likely not be a fascinating contest, I will not be staying up too late for the result.
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,772
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Post by andrea on May 13, 2021 21:10:15 GMT
Is it being counted overnight? I am assuming so, but in these funny old times nothing can be taken for granted anymore. |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on May 14, 2021 0:01:23 GMT
This was tweeted 30 mins ago. Turnout 34% apparently.
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,534
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Post by johnloony on May 14, 2021 0:45:55 GMT
I had Sky News on, in the vague assumption that it was more likely to broadcast the declaration than the BBC News channel, but I wasn’t expecting the newsreader to mention it so briefly and casually in passing without even attempting to tell us any of the figures.
Bah humbug.
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johnloony
Conservative
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Post by johnloony on May 14, 2021 0:47:55 GMT
Yet again this Twit insults us by telling us percentages without telling us the result. |
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Post by yellowperil on May 14, 2021 0:54:52 GMT
Someone has hastily set up a Wikipedia page for the newly-elected MP. It's unusual for someone to be elected to Westminster who didn't previously have a page. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anum_Qaisar-JavedLove the incredible vagueness, too - like not sure how old they are. |
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Post by yellowperil on May 14, 2021 0:59:19 GMT
Yet again this Twit insults us by telling us percentages without telling us the result. Well of course it's the vital information needed if you happen to be involved in a prediction competition, and barring that why should anyone be interested?  |
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johnloony
Conservative
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Post by johnloony on May 14, 2021 3:02:23 GMT
Well of course it's the vital information needed if you happen to be involved in a prediction competition, and barring that why should anyone be interested? If they're only going to give one set of information I'd rather have the raw figures, since anyone can work out the percentages, whereas it's impossible to work out the raw data from the percentages. Statement of the obvious I know. About 20 years ago, Croydon council had a referendum on how much Council Tax should be increased by (the options were 2%, 3.5% and 5%). For some reason, the conduct of the referendum was contracted out to Electoral Reform Services, instead of being done by the usual elections department of the council. Idiotically and annoyingly, the ERS reported the results of the referendum (with separate totals for each ward) in the form of percentages rather than numbers. But they were published to an accuracy of two decimal places, so that the numbers were precise enough that it was possible to calculate backwards to find the original numbers. But I was still annoyed because one of the wards added up to 100.05%, so there must have been a discrepancy of about 2 votes somewhere. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,763
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Post by right on May 14, 2021 5:58:44 GMT
Someone has hastily set up a Wikipedia page for the newly-elected MP. It's unusual for someone to be elected to Westminster who didn't previously have a page. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anum_Qaisar-JavedI remember back in the day when pages for challenger party candidates would be successfully challenged and deleted because being a candidate on its own didn't imply notability |
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Post by yellowperil on May 14, 2021 6:03:57 GMT
Quite old really by comparison with Mhairi Black or David Steel in their day. |
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on May 14, 2021 6:49:44 GMT
Yet another result which indicates that voting is based on one issue, and one side of that issue has a largely united voting force, as opposed to the other.
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Post by No Offence Alan on May 14, 2021 7:55:48 GMT
"Hey, I'm 9 today! Why are you grown ups all watching TV at my birthday party?" |
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