Airdrie and Shotts

[edinburghtory]

The Tories have selected local lad, Ben Callaghan, he has stood in a couple of council by-elections for the party in recent times.

[CatholicLeft]

Apr 14, 2021 20:00:57 GMT edinburghtory said:

The Tories have selected local lad, Ben Callaghan, he has stood in a couple of council by-elections for the party in recent times.

For me, it is a sign that the Tories are soft-pedalling their campaign in the byelection.

[greenhert]

They are undoubtedly hoping that enough of their votes will tactically transfer to Labour and defeat the SNP. Like in Northern Ireland, the constituency battles in Scotland are now often "unionist" (Labour/Conservative/Liberal Democrat) vs. "nationalist" (SNP).

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Nominations closed at 4pm but the SOPN isn't out yet.

There's a Scottish Unionist Party candidate in the field - Dr Jonathan Stanley.

twitter.com/JonMarcStanley

[mrsir]

SNP hoping to solve that all-white SNP Westminster party then.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

SOPN/Notice of Poll: www.northlanarkshire.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2021-04/Notice%20of%20Poll%20Published%20AS.docx

Eight candidates.

ARRUNDALE, Stephen Phillip: Scottish Liberal Democrats
CALLAGHAN, Ben Ron: Scottish Conservative and Unionist
GREENE, Martyn William: ReformUK – Changing Politics for Good
MACKAY, Donald Murdo: UKIP
MANSON, Neil Peter: Social Democratic Party Scotland 
STANLEY, Jonathan Marc: Scottish Unionists
STEVENSON, Kenneth: Scottish Labour Party
QAISAR-JAVED, Anum: Scottish National Party (SNP)

[The Bishop]

Apr 14, 2021 12:58:21 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Apr 14, 2021 10:50:45 GMT markgoodair said:

Labour were on 7/1. Worth a punt?

One bookmaker is currently offering 7/1 against Brian Rose being the next Mayor of London. I would suggest that the chances of Brian Rose winning the election for Mayor of London are not remotely in the same league as the chances of Labour winning the Airdrie and Shotts byelection.

Didn't he all but admit putting big sums of money on himself?

[DrW]

If Labour were to do well in the Holyrood election then they’d have a good chance of picking this up. I suspect doing well in this context means retaking second rather than holding their existing vote or increasing their seat total a bit - that is, enough to make the public notice.

[Clark]

Can't remember which site member but there was a ward analysis of the 2016 election and the only ward Labour would've carried in his calculation was Fortissat

[AdminSTB]

Seeing as this by election is taking place next week, I've re-opened the poll. Someone please remind me to lock it again at 10PM on the 13th.

[Sandy]

May 7, 2021 23:26:59 GMT Andrew_S said:

The likely next MP for Airdrie & Shotts.

One for the hot politicians thread.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

This is obviously the next Scottish contest. I assume we're pretty much all unanimous in assuming the SNP will hold it?

Personally, on the 25th of March I wrote this;

"I've gone for an SNP hold. I think that's most likely at this stage as I don't think Sarwar's momentum is enough to take it."

I stand by that. In my view, the only scenario that would allow Labour to take it is a typical by-election turnout and massive unionist tactical voting. The first is out of any party's control, the second is a big ask.

[andrea]

Doesn't SLAB have anybody else other than MSPs to deliver? I see the candidate, Sarwar, the 3 Central Scotland MSPs and the 3 South Scotland MSPs

[Deleted]

I put some money on Labour winning at 6-1 and 7-1 a while back. Probably needn't have bothered.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

They're at 20/1 rn on Ladbrokes. I have thought about putting a fiver on it, just in case🤔

[mysticrobin]

I agree it is unlikely that Labour win here but it is far from impossible. This is a traditional Labour heartland of the not so distant past. Low turnout, Sarwar on the rise, voters electioned out after the Holyrood event and unionists converging to stop the SNP. Who knows?

[No Offence Alan]

May 12, 2021 7:42:45 GMT mysticrobin said:

I agree it is unlikely that Labour win here but it is far from impossible. This is a traditional Labour heartland of the not so distant past. Low turnout, Sarwar on the rise, voters electioned out after the Holyrood event and unionists converging to stop the SNP. Who knows?

If there is a low turnout, then the postal votes already cast will have decided it.

[mysticrobin]

May 12, 2021 9:18:10 GMT No Offence Alan said:

May 12, 2021 7:42:45 GMT mysticrobin said:

I agree it is unlikely that Labour win here but it is far from impossible. This is a traditional Labour heartland of the not so distant past. Low turnout, Sarwar on the rise, voters electioned out after the Holyrood event and unionists converging to stop the SNP. Who knows?

If there is a low turnout, then the postal votes already cast will have decided it.

Which doesn't particularly suit SNPs predominately younger section of the electorate.

[Deleted]

Two things have to happen for Labour to win here - nationalist fatigue and Unionist tactical voting. Are both likely? I see no evidence of that

[The Bishop]

The latter may happen to a certain degree (it did in some seats last week) or perhaps not given SLab's still pretty anaemic showing overall.

And as for the former, its always possible some SNP voters will think "job done" so soon after returning them to power in Holyrood.

(but there are, as already said, quite a few postal votes anyway)