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Post by johnloony on Feb 19, 2021 18:08:27 GMT
Either a majority Conservative government (after a whole decade of majorities), or a Blair-style Labour government (elected in c.2028 or 2029), either of which with a PM who is not particularly prominent now. The SNP bubble will have collapsed after the victory of the Unionist option in the 2nd independence referendum. There will be a small splattering of Lib Dem MPs, some of which are not in the obvious places. The economy will be flourishing and growing, after recovering from Covid and after settling down (settling up) from Brexit.
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 19, 2021 20:29:30 GMT
The word "history" in the title of this sub-forum is really having its stress-levels tested  |
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Post by johnloony on Feb 20, 2021 13:02:57 GMT
Where has the OP gone? I was responding to a question.
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961 
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Post by mondialito on Feb 20, 2021 13:12:27 GMT
Where has the OP gone? I was responding to a question. Perhaps they deleted their post after manchesterman's comment. Predicting the future is always risky, but if I were to play along, I would say that 10 years from now Scotland would be independent, nationalists would be the largest faction at Stormont and rUK would have a majority Labour government headed by a female PM. |
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 20, 2021 13:23:48 GMT
For clarity, I wasnt asking for the thread to be pulled. Twas but a light hearted observation!
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 20, 2021 13:32:24 GMT
Where has the OP gone? I was responding to a question. Perhaps they deleted their post after manchesterman 's comment. Predicting the future is always risky, but if I were to play along, I would say that 10 years from now Scotland would be independent, nationalists would be the largest faction at Stormont and rUK would have a majority Labour government headed by a female PM. Interesting, would you care to stick your neck out as to who you think that Pm might be? |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Feb 20, 2021 13:34:31 GMT
Where has the OP gone? I was responding to a question. Perhaps they deleted their post after manchesterman 's comment. Predicting the future is always risky, but if I were to play along, I would say that 10 years from now Scotland would be independent, nationalists would be the largest faction at Stormont and rUK would have a majority Labour government headed by a female PM. No. A referendum won't be allowed in this parliament, UK parliament, and any exit deal would take at least a decade to sort out. |
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 20, 2021 13:35:30 GMT
I agree with part of Mondialito's post. I foresee an Independent Scotland and N.Ireland either already joined up with RoI (or well on the way towards). Nevertheless, with Labour still sticking its head in the sand about voting reform and the media if anything becoming even more "fake and Fox", the Tories still managing to cling to 40% of the vote despite the devastation they will have wrought on the fabric of our nation; and whilst the other parties refuse to co-operate with each other in any meaningful way, the majority anti-Tory vote remains split and under FPTP, I see a Sunak government with a majority of about 15 on a 40% share.
Of course if over the next few years, the opposition parties do come to their sense, then well who knows...?
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 20, 2021 13:38:43 GMT
Perhaps they deleted their post after manchesterman 's comment. Predicting the future is always risky, but if I were to play along, I would say that 10 years from now Scotland would be independent, nationalists would be the largest faction at Stormont and rUK would have a majority Labour government headed by a female PM. No. A referendum won't be allowed in this parliament, UK parliament, and any exit deal would take at least a decade to sort out. I dont think he (or I) were suggesting the details of any exit deals would be done and dusted by 2029. However it is perfectly feasible (likely) that there will be a ref in the next 4-5 years & I think we were saying we were predicting a YES vote in that ref, be it in 2025/2026/2027/2028 etc. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Feb 20, 2021 13:41:17 GMT
2015 style Conservative government at Westminster.
We will be in the aftermath of indyref 2; If it's pro Union, the SNP will be falling in the polls after they immediately misread the room and raise the spectre of Indyref 3. If a yes, Scottish politics will be in turmoil. The Conservatives, now solely about the union and nothing much else, will be rampaging across most No voting areas, there would be a clamour for a second referendum, rumblings of Northern Isles secession, the UK would be playing hardball in negotiations making Scottish nationalists more overtly anti-English, thusly English people will be leaving in droves, and the Scottish public will be polarising American style.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Feb 20, 2021 13:44:25 GMT
No. A referendum won't be allowed in this parliament, UK parliament, and any exit deal would take at least a decade to sort out. I dont think he (or I) were suggesting the details of any exit deals would be done and dusted by 2029. However it is perfectly feasible (likely) that there will be a ref in the next 4-5 years & I think we were saying we were predicting a YES vote in that ref, be it in 2025/2026/2027/2028 etc. We wouldn't be independent then. There'd have to be a solid deal before it happened in order to ensure market stability. As said elsewhere, this wouldn't be like Brexit, mainly as Scotland hasn't been officially independent for 300 years, and practically for 400. |
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Feb 20, 2021 13:44:54 GMT
No. A referendum won't be allowed in this parliament, UK parliament, and any exit deal would take at least a decade to sort out. I dont think he (or I) were suggesting the details of any exit deals would be done and dusted by 2029. However it is perfectly feasible (likely) that there will be a ref in the next 4-5 years & I think we were saying we were predicting a YES vote in that ref, be it in 2025/2026/2027/2028 etc. This. I agree that the UK Government would successfully avoid holding a referendum in this Parliament, but if the Tories win another majority in 2024 then I think that will spur on another pro-indy majority at Holyrood in 2026. In that scenario, anything is possible. |
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 20, 2021 13:56:10 GMT
2015 style Conservative government at Westminster. We will be in the aftermath of indyref 2; If it's pro Union, the SNP will be falling in the polls after they immediately misread the room and raise the spectre of Indyref 3. If a yes, Scottish politics will be in turmoil. The Conservatives, now solely about the union and nothing much else, will be rampaging across most No voting areas, there would be a clamour for a second referendum, rumblings of Northern Isles secession, the UK would be playing hardball in negotiations making Scottish nationalists more overtly anti-English, thusly English people will be leaving in droves, and the Scottish public will be polarising American style. I would have thought this would be disastrous for the Tories, as the "traditional " Labour seats - dozens of them - would surely, if disillusioned with SNP in those "no" areas, revert back to their instincts? Yes a handful of rural seats a la 2017 but that would be it.
I could see a possible scenario of (dates very loose!) : Indy Ref 2027 > YES vote > SNP in charge of what happens next (which will not be good for Scotland I think we agree on that) > SNP vote collapse at, say, a 2032 Scottish GE , in which Labour would win back all the central belt seats they lost in 2015 and, even with a proportional voting system, would be very likely to form the next Scottish government.
A lot of "ifs" in there and we are projecting well into the future, but that would be my best guess.
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 20, 2021 13:57:36 GMT
I dont think he (or I) were suggesting the details of any exit deals would be done and dusted by 2029. However it is perfectly feasible (likely) that there will be a ref in the next 4-5 years & I think we were saying we were predicting a YES vote in that ref, be it in 2025/2026/2027/2028 etc. We wouldn't be independent then. There'd have to be a solid deal before it happened in order to ensure market stability. As said elsewhere, this wouldn't be like Brexit, mainly as Scotland hasn't been officially independent for 300 years, and practically for 400. playing semantics - OK I will change my projection to "will have voted YES in an Indy ref by then"  |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Feb 20, 2021 14:03:44 GMT
2015 style Conservative government at Westminster. We will be in the aftermath of indyref 2; If it's pro Union, the SNP will be falling in the polls after they immediately misread the room and raise the spectre of Indyref 3. If a yes, Scottish politics will be in turmoil. The Conservatives, now solely about the union and nothing much else, will be rampaging across most No voting areas, there would be a clamour for a second referendum, rumblings of Northern Isles secession, the UK would be playing hardball in negotiations making Scottish nationalists more overtly anti-English, thusly English people will be leaving in droves, and the Scottish public will be polarising American style. I would have thought this would be disastrous for the Tories, as the "traditional " Labour seats - dozens of them - would surely, if disillusioned with SNP in those "no" areas, revert back to their instincts? Yes a handful of rural seats a la 2017 but that would be it.
I could see a possible scenario of (dates very loose!) : Indy Ref 2027 > YES vote > SNP in charge of what happens next (which will not be good for Scotland I think we agree on that) > SNP vote collapse at, say, a 2032 Scottish GE , in which Labour would win back all the central belt seats they lost in 2015 and, even with a proportional voting system, would be very likely to form the next Scottish government.
A lot of "ifs" in there and we are projecting well into the future, but that would be my best guess.
I think we'd see a rapid ulsterisation of Scottish politics tbh. I think traditional loyalties would seem insignificant in relation to it. Like the 2019 realignment, but on crack. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Feb 20, 2021 14:04:41 GMT
We wouldn't be independent then. There'd have to be a solid deal before it happened in order to ensure market stability. As said elsewhere, this wouldn't be like Brexit, mainly as Scotland hasn't been officially independent for 300 years, and practically for 400. playing semantics - OK I will change my projection to "will have voted YES in an Indy ref by then" Fair enough. I can't like it though, given its content.😅 |
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 20, 2021 14:14:43 GMT
I would have thought this would be disastrous for the Tories, as the "traditional " Labour seats - dozens of them - would surely, if disillusioned with SNP in those "no" areas, revert back to their instincts? Yes a handful of rural seats a la 2017 but that would be it.
I could see a possible scenario of (dates very loose!) : Indy Ref 2027 > YES vote > SNP in charge of what happens next (which will not be good for Scotland I think we agree on that) > SNP vote collapse at, say, a 2032 Scottish GE , in which Labour would win back all the central belt seats they lost in 2015 and, even with a proportional voting system, would be very likely to form the next Scottish government. A lot of "ifs" in there and we are projecting well into the future, but that would be my best guess.
I think we'd see a rapid ulsterisation of Scottish politics tbh. I think traditional loyalties would seem insignificant in relation to it. Like the 2019 realignment, but on crack. Is there the underlying division to sustain that? Or would most accept the outcome and look to make it work? After all, independence will have happened. I think dragging the issue out over a decade is a mistake. There needs to be a clear decision made. It's unfortunate that so much of the No campaign last time revolved around EU membership |
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hengo
Conservative
Posts: 1,689
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Post by hengo on Feb 20, 2021 14:20:21 GMT
One safe prediction is that young leftists will be confidently predicting the imminent demise of the Conservative Party as the demographics heavily favour them. As did their fathers before them. And their grandfathers.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Feb 20, 2021 14:29:43 GMT
I think we'd see a rapid ulsterisation of Scottish politics tbh. I think traditional loyalties would seem insignificant in relation to it. Like the 2019 realignment, but on crack. Is there the underlying division to sustain that? Or would most accept the outcome and look to make it work? After all, independence will have happened. I think dragging the issue out over a decade is a mistake. There needs to be a clear decision made. It's unfortunate that so much of the No campaign last time revolved around EU membership I would estimate that it would dissipate over 2 decades or so. In the aftermath though, it would deeply divide this country. |
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Feb 20, 2021 14:41:10 GMT
Perhaps they deleted their post after manchesterman 's comment. Predicting the future is always risky, but if I were to play along, I would say that 10 years from now Scotland would be independent, nationalists would be the largest faction at Stormont and rUK would have a majority Labour government headed by a female PM. Interesting, would you care to stick your neck out as to who you think that Pm might be? Well, at the moment I would say the leading candidates to succeed Starmer as leader are all women and personally speaking I think Angela Rayner would currently be the one to watch. As for your points about Tory managed democracy, that is a concern but as rivers10 explained in the Starmer's Labour thread there are reasons to think that their current 40% block of the electorate will not last forever. That's not to say Labour would win by default, but the pendulum can swing quite rapidly as we have seen very recently. |
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