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Post by Merseymike on Feb 20, 2021 15:02:57 GMT
Interesting, would you care to stick your neck out as to who you think that Pm might be? Well, at the moment I would say the leading candidates to succeed Starmer as leader are all women and personally speaking I think Angela Rayner would currently be the one to watch. She hasn't made much impact either. I think they would go for Andy Burnham if they decide that the Starmer leadership is going to tank badly at the next election |
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
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Post by mondialito on Feb 20, 2021 15:12:00 GMT
Well, at the moment I would say the leading candidates to succeed Starmer as leader are all women and personally speaking I think Angela Rayner would currently be the one to watch. She hasn't made much impact either. I think they would go for Andy Burnham if they decide that the Starmer leadership is going to tank badly at the next election Perhaps as someone to save furniture if things were looking really bleak in 2024, but I think the wish for a female leader is very strong amongst members. |
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 20, 2021 15:14:11 GMT
She hasn't made much impact either. I think they would go for Andy Burnham if they decide that the Starmer leadership is going to tank badly at the next election Perhaps as someone to save furniture if things were looking really bleak in 2024, but I think the wish for a female leader is very strong amongst members. It was in 2020 but they still chose the penguin! |
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msc
Non-Aligned
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Post by msc on Feb 20, 2021 15:23:27 GMT
Predicting the next month is difficult right now, let alone a decade.
At the risk of being quoted or long dead by 2030 (and without the original post to suggest what they were actually looking for):
There will not be a second indy ref in Scotland in the next ten years. It would rely on a big SNP presence and they get bogged down in a huge internal civil war for much of the decade instead.
This doesn't stop everyone going on and on and on about fucking referendums that never happen, of course.
So by the end of the decade I could see minority Holyrood government again - but unless Scottish Labour improve themselves it's hard to see beyond a minority Nat, Tory opposition, with power on a subject depending on Lib Dem/Green members.
Rishi Sunak never becomes Prime Minister - Michael Gove does, somehow. The first bit based on how rapid rising stars can fade just as quickly (say, when the give aways get paid for), the latter just one of those niggling gut feelings.
The next election will see seats that look completely safe now change hands. By the end of the decade I suspect Labour will be in power in some way at Westminster - based on historical precedent.
Nothing of major note happens in Welsh politics, except in Professor Roger Scully's promotion of upcoming polls.
A few things in the 2019 Labour manifesto (UBI for example) will be major cross party talking points, and the Corbynistas still around by then (under whatever name they have) will be claiming victory.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 21, 2021 12:14:56 GMT
Predicting politics a decade ahead is a mug's game, but that it will closely resemble the previous 10 years is often the least likely scenario in practice.
It is likely things will happen, and majorly impact the political scene, in ways that are only dimly perceived at present if at all.
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Post by rivers10 on Feb 21, 2021 13:02:54 GMT
Predicting politics a decade ahead is a mug's game, but that it will closely resemble the previous 10 years is often the least likely scenario in practice. It is likely things will happen, and majorly impact the political scene, in ways that are only dimly perceived at present if at all. I'd add to this with an anecdote In the run up to the 2017 election a video got suggested to me in my YouTube feed, it was an excerpt from the Daily Politics show from 2012 The clip itself was totally unremarkable except for how alien it all was, Douglas Alexander was debating Nigel Farage on EU membership and the whole thing was just surreal, I don't think anybody could have predicted that in 5 years time Alexander would have lost his seat as Scotlands political map was redrawn, we'd have voted to leave the EU, none of the then party leaders would still be in place and one of them wouldn't even be an MP!!! It might as well have been a clip from 50 years prior not 5 |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 22, 2021 11:45:08 GMT
One safe prediction is that young leftists will be confidently predicting the imminent demise of the Conservative Party as the demographics heavily favour them. As did their fathers before them. And their grandfathers. Except that isn't really true is it, at least not to the same extent. And the present degree of age polarisation in UK politics is actually genuinely unprecedented. Though yes, "demographics is destiny" arguments are generally bunk. I can remember claims that the Labour party was doomed by demographics back in the 1980s. |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Feb 22, 2021 12:31:07 GMT
I'd just say working Tory majority in 2024(stretching their term to 2028/9) beyond that who knows?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2021 14:15:55 GMT
I'd just say working Tory majority in 2024(stretching their term to 2028/9) beyond that who knows? I think a lot depends on how Brexit and the coronavirus recovery go. If they get it wrong the Tory Party could be in really serious trouble |
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Post by curiousliberal on Feb 22, 2021 14:19:21 GMT
One safe prediction is that young leftists will be confidently predicting the imminent demise of the Conservative Party as the demographics heavily favour them. As did their fathers before them. And their grandfathers. Arguably, the Conservative Party of each era has died. |
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hengo
Conservative
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Post by hengo on Feb 22, 2021 14:22:34 GMT
Well I guess you can always say that of each party. They evolve of course or disappear, which seems at the moment to be the more likely fate of the LibDems.
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Post by curiousliberal on Feb 22, 2021 14:25:05 GMT
Well I guess you can always say that of each party. They evolve of course or disappear, which seems at the moment to be the more likely fate of the LibDems. I'd wager the Greens either merge with or eclipse the LibDems by the end of the 2020s. |
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hengo
Conservative
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Post by hengo on Feb 22, 2021 14:59:51 GMT
There will always be a Conservative party as it doesn’t depend on any particular central theory or set of beliefs, it is more a place for those of us with a conservative cast of mind, who distrust radical solutions to society’s ills, and particularly those who peddle them, and are generally sceptical about the role of government. From time to time the Party will have some specific enthusiasms but they come and go. Labour for most people , if not for its core of socialist believers, is simply the alternative progressive or radical party. Neither the Liberals nor the LibDems managed to lever away those people who were generally progressive minded but unconvinced by socialist solutions- and while they stay with Labour , there is no space for a third party. And anyway , what are they for?
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 22, 2021 15:02:30 GMT
There will always be a Conservative party as it doesn’t depend on any particular central theory or set of beliefs, it is more a place for those of us with a conservative cast of mind, who distrust radical solutions to society’s ills, and particularly those who peddle them, and are generally sceptical about the role of government. From time to time the Party will have some specific enthusiasms but they come and go. Labour for most people , if not for its core of socialist believers, is simply the alternative progressive or radical party. Neither the Liberals nor the LibDems managed to lever away those people who were generally progressive minded but unconvinced by socialist solutions- and while they stay with Labour , there is no space for a third party. And anyway , what are they for? Certainly a FPTP electoral system ends up with two fairly interchangeable parties. You think that's a good way to run politics. I don't. |
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hengo
Conservative
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Post by hengo on Feb 22, 2021 15:12:24 GMT
We needn’t go around that mulberry bush again, but what would you hope to get from a system of permanent coalitions?
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Feb 22, 2021 15:15:02 GMT
I'd just say working Tory majority in 2024(stretching their term to 2028/9) beyond that who knows? I think a lot depends on how Brexit and the coronavirus recovery go. If they get it wrong the Tory Party could be in really serious trouble Unless it gets really really bad in a way even I can't imagine it's hard to picture Labour winning in 2024 still, think the Tories will get the benefit of any doubt |
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 22, 2021 15:31:06 GMT
We needn’t go around that mulberry bush again, but what would you hope to get from a system of permanent coalitions? The choice to vote for a party other than the main two who will then have a chance of winning seats. The two main parties are already coalitions so I'm not sure Government itself would be greatly different, but at least it would remove negative voting and mean those of us who don't want a centre-right party would have that option. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2021 15:37:23 GMT
We needn’t go around that mulberry bush again, but what would you hope to get from a system of permanent coalitions? The choice to vote for a party other than the main two who will then have a chance of winning seats. The two main parties are already coalitions so I'm not sure Government itself would be greatly different, but at least it would remove negative voting and mean those of us who don't want a centre-right party would have that option. Except unless you believe a change on the electoral system would completely re-write the party system (it won't) you'll still only end up with Con-LD or Lab-LD coalitions. Which means a) one party has permanent place in government and b) government is still led by the same two parties, and given that it'll be whichever ends up being bigger you'll still have negative and tactical voting to make sure the "other lot" come second instead of first |
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 22, 2021 15:47:45 GMT
The choice to vote for a party other than the main two who will then have a chance of winning seats. The two main parties are already coalitions so I'm not sure Government itself would be greatly different, but at least it would remove negative voting and mean those of us who don't want a centre-right party would have that option. Except unless you believe a change on the electoral system would completely re-write the party system (it won't) you'll still only end up with Con-LD or Lab-LD coalitions. Which means a) one party has permanent place in government and b) government is still led by the same two parties, and given that it'll be whichever ends up being bigger you'll still have negative and tactical voting to make sure the "other lot" come second instead of first I think it would mean some realignment as it would be likely that smaller parties could gain some representation I would only vote positively for parties I agree with. Because at the moment that is not available, it's likely that I won't vote at all, as wanting to keep one of the main parties out is not motivation enough. I actually don't care whether the current Tory or Labour parties win or lose on one level. There is no reason at all why third, fourth, fifth parties should not be part of governing coalitions. It happens elsewhere. Whether that would be the LibDems I'm less convinced. |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Feb 22, 2021 16:14:17 GMT
Given the volatility even under FPTP over the past ten years, a PR Westminster system could resemble the Netherlands.
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