British Politics at the End of the 2020s

[greenchristian]

Mar 13, 2021 11:58:01 GMT Jamie said:

Though I do expect the greens and Lib Dem’s to merge in some form in the future, the death of both being very much exaggerated/hoped for by the two big boys in the room.

This seems exceedingly unlikely. Whilst there's substantial overlap between the left wing of the Lib Dems and the right wing of the Greens a merged party would easily be a broader tent than either of the current big two parties. And the factions in both parties who were opposed to any such merger would almost certainly be more successful than the continuity Liberals and continuity SDP were back in the day.

[sirbenjamin]

Mar 15, 2021 14:50:18 GMT greenchristian said:

Mar 13, 2021 11:58:01 GMT Jamie said:

Though I do expect the greens and Lib Dem’s to merge in some form in the future, the death of both being very much exaggerated/hoped for by the two big boys in the room.

This seems exceedingly unlikely. Whilst there's substantial overlap between the left wing of the Lib Dems and the right wing of the Greens a merged party would easily be a broader tent than either of the current big two parties. And the factions in both parties who were opposed to any such merger would almost certainly be more successful than the continuity Liberals and continuity SDP were back in the day.

And it would alienate considerable numbers of occasional/casual supporters on both sides.

These suggestions always seem to come from people who see politics as 'us vs them' or 'everyone vs Tories', without any room for nuance or subtlety. Or indeed respect for the longstanding traditions of the party to whom they've prostituted their vote. As if every single one of the 59% who didn't vote Conservative is on their side, no questions asked.

[yellowperil]

Mar 15, 2021 14:50:18 GMT greenchristian said:

Mar 13, 2021 11:58:01 GMT Jamie said:

Though I do expect the greens and Lib Dem’s to merge in some form in the future, the death of both being very much exaggerated/hoped for by the two big boys in the room.

This seems exceedingly unlikely. Whilst there's substantial overlap between the left wing of the Lib Dems and the right wing of the Greens a merged party would easily be a broader tent than either of the current big two parties. And the factions in both parties who were opposed to any such merger would almost certainly be more successful than the continuity Liberals and continuity SDP were back in the day.

Sadly , I think that's all true, and I say that as someone who would personally have no problem with a merger on purely ideological grounds. I think te best that can be hoped for is a further agreement to stand down where that's appropriate. 

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Mar 15, 2021 16:48:56 GMT yellowperil said:

Mar 15, 2021 14:50:18 GMT greenchristian said:

This seems exceedingly unlikely. Whilst there's substantial overlap between the left wing of the Lib Dems and the right wing of the Greens a merged party would easily be a broader tent than either of the current big two parties. And the factions in both parties who were opposed to any such merger would almost certainly be more successful than the continuity Liberals and continuity SDP were back in the day.

Sadly , I think that's all true, and I say that as someone who would personally have no problem with a merger on purely ideological grounds. I think te best that can be hoped for is a further agreement to stand down where that's appropriate. 

A merger of this kind would make more sense for the Liberal Democrats than the Greens I think, this is because the Liberal Democrats would gain identity through it, whilst the Greens would lose identity.

[sirbenjamin]

Mar 15, 2021 16:48:56 GMT yellowperil said:

Mar 15, 2021 14:50:18 GMT greenchristian said:

This seems exceedingly unlikely. Whilst there's substantial overlap between the left wing of the Lib Dems and the right wing of the Greens a merged party would easily be a broader tent than either of the current big two parties. And the factions in both parties who were opposed to any such merger would almost certainly be more successful than the continuity Liberals and continuity SDP were back in the day.

Sadly , I think that's all true, and I say that as someone who would personally have no problem with a merger on purely ideological grounds. I think te best that can be hoped for is a further agreement to stand down where that's appropriate. 

These 'standing down' arrangements are exactly the sort of thing that puts me off. It just comes over as hubristic Toryphobia that takes voters for granted.

There are certain scenarios where people like me would conceivably consider voting LibDem, but pretty much since its formation the party seems to have gone out of its way to ensure these situations never arise!

[John Chanin]

I think that if we moved to sensible PR system (not impossible in my view) we would have a political environment very similar to that in Germany, with 6 parties representing reasonably clear sections of opinion, and most people having someone they are comfortable voting for. A democracy in which people vote for what they are in favour of, rather than the present situation where most people cast votes against what they don’t like, would be much healthier.

[sirbenjamin]

Mar 16, 2021 16:54:06 GMT John Chanin said:

I think that if we moved to sensible PR system (not impossible in my view) we would have a political environment very similar to that in Germany, with 6 parties representing reasonably clear sections of opinion, and most people having someone they are comfortable voting for. A democracy in which people vote for what they are in favour of, rather than the present situation where most people cast votes against what they don’t like, would be much healthier.

If only there were such a thing...

[greenchristian]

Mar 16, 2021 15:51:09 GMT sirbenjamin said:

Mar 15, 2021 16:48:56 GMT yellowperil said:

Sadly , I think that's all true, and I say that as someone who would personally have no problem with a merger on purely ideological grounds. I think te best that can be hoped for is a further agreement to stand down where that's appropriate. 

These 'standing down' arrangements are exactly the sort of thing that puts me off. It just comes over as hubristic Toryphobia that takes voters for granted.

There are certain scenarios where people like me would conceivably consider voting LibDem, but pretty much since its formation the party seems to have gone out of its way to ensure these situations never arise!

For what it's worth, discussion of electoral pacts in the Green room here has been entirely against electoral pacts for Westminster elections (though a couple of comments have been extremely sceptical rather than adamantly opposed). There is more of a case for it in some local elections, especially where one or both parties wouldn't have been standing a full slate of candidates anyway. In some predominantly rural councils an electoral pact is actually the best way of ensuring that every council seat is actually contested (especially if Labour join the agreement as well).

[swingometer]

Feb 20, 2021 15:23:27 GMT msc said:

Predicting the next month is difficult right now, let alone a decade.

At the risk of being quoted or long dead by 2030 (and without the original post to suggest what they were actually looking for):

There will not be a second indy ref in Scotland in the next ten years. It would rely on a big SNP presence and they get bogged down in a huge internal civil war for much of the decade instead.

This doesn't stop everyone going on and on and on about fucking referendums that never happen, of course.

So by the end of the decade I could see minority Holyrood government again - but unless Scottish Labour improve themselves it's hard to see beyond a minority Nat, Tory opposition, with power on a subject depending on Lib Dem/Green members.

Rishi Sunak never becomes Prime Minister - Michael Gove does, somehow. The first bit based on how rapid rising stars can fade just as quickly (say, when the give aways get paid for), the latter just one of those niggling gut feelings.

The next election will see seats that look completely safe now change hands. By the end of the decade I suspect Labour will be in power in some way at Westminster - based on historical precedent.

Nothing of major note happens in Welsh politics, except in Professor Roger Scully's promotion of upcoming polls.

A few things in the 2019 Labour manifesto (UBI for example) will be major cross party talking points, and the Corbynistas still around by then (under whatever name they have) will be claiming victory.

Want a knife and fork to eat your hat

[The Bishop]

Shows why I am so wary of making hard predictions!

Though tbf the one specifically about the next GE looks pretty spot on at the moment.

[msc]

Apr 21, 2024 11:25:04 GMT The Bishop said:

Shows why I am so wary of making hard predictions!

Though tbf the one specifically about the next GE looks pretty spot on at the moment.

I think the SNP civil war prediction was a good call too tbh. 

Rishi Sunak, tbf, I was right all the way up to the Lis Truss Titanic reign.

Much of the rest is in the too early to call category. Although I do miss Roger Scully's "Holy Shit this Welsh poll will blow your socks off" ramping for "Labour +1, Tory -1" type Welsh polling.