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Post by curiousliberal on Feb 23, 2021 11:04:24 GMT
I'm not too sure about this but a larger Green party/merged Green/LD party would probably be most likely to win new seats in densely populated constituencies and the areas most obviously affected by pollution and climate change. Depending on how much more common extreme weather becomes in Britain, that could lead to more electoral strength in coastal towns in the long term.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 23, 2021 11:04:24 GMT
It would make more sense in a way for large number of Labour votes- from those who only vote for it as they see it as the progressive alternative to the Conservatives to switch to the LibDems leaving Labour as a clearly socialist party. Or for Socialists to break away leaving Labour and the LibDems to combine to make a natural Social Democratic Party. But people in the parties have personal ambitions which would probably get in the way as they have in the past. That won't happen with the current electoral system. And that system will only change once Labour grasps it won't win alone. |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 23, 2021 11:05:40 GMT
I'm not too sure about this but a larger Green party/merged Green/LD party would probably be most likely to win new seats in densely populated constituencies and the areas most obviously affected by pollution and climate change. Depending on how much more common extreme weather becomes in Britain, that could lead to more electoral strength in coastal towns in the long term. Why would the Greens merge with the LD's? Many Greens are not liberals. |
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Post by curiousliberal on Feb 23, 2021 11:07:51 GMT
To clarify, I think they'd do better in these areas because the time lag of climate change plus short termism in electoral politics mean that even if governments have all cleaned up their acts by 2030, the effects felt are likely to be worse than now.
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Post by curiousliberal on Feb 23, 2021 11:13:22 GMT
I'm not too sure about this but a larger Green party/merged Green/LD party would probably be most likely to win new seats in densely populated constituencies and the areas most obviously affected by pollution and climate change. Depending on how much more common extreme weather becomes in Britain, that could lead to more electoral strength in coastal towns in the long term. Why would the Greens merge with the LD's? Many Greens are not liberals. Almost all liberals are environmentalists and most Greens are socially liberal (even the red-greens who are protectionist tend to be liberal on issues like surveillance, gay marriage, etc.). There is a lot of policy and demographic overlap, the pool of potential Green voters will grow as the effects of climate change worsen and, as their tent becomes bigger, it's likely to become a bit more ideologically diverse. Liberalism is likely to continue its decline in the UK and its parliamentary representatives, usually being pragmatic sorts, will probably seek a closer alliance as they did with the social democrats before. As climate change worsens, responding to it will become increasingly important to any party as concerned with freedoms as the Lib Dems are supposed to be, because of the threat of ecofascism. I could write a longer pitch about why the Georgist tradition is a natural basis for liberalism and environmentalism, but I'm not getting my hopes up too high regarding a popular revival of that theory. |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 23, 2021 11:22:41 GMT
Why would the Greens merge with the LD's? Many Greens are not liberals. Almost all liberals are environmentalists and most Greens are socially liberal (even the red-greens who are protectionist tend to be liberal on issues like surveillance, gay marriage, etc.). There is a lot of policy and demographic overlap, the pool of potential Green voters will grow as the effects of climate change worsen and, as their tent becomes bigger, it's likely to become a bit more ideologically diverse. Liberalism is likely to continue its decline in the UK and its parliamentary representatives, usually being pragmatic sorts, will probably seek a closer alliance as they did with the social democrats before. As climate change worsens, responding to it will become increasingly important to any party as concerned with freedoms as the Lib Dems are supposed to be, because of the threat of ecofascism. I could write a longer pitch about why the Georgist tradition is a natural basis for liberalism and environmentalism, but I'm not getting my hopes up too high regarding a popular revival of that theory. But I'm socially liberal. So is George Osborne. Does that make either of us "liberals"? I have always thought that for the LibDems to survive as more than a localised dogshit-and-pavements take-the-politics-out-of-politics party they need a distinctly Liberal message. But they clearly either don't know what it is, or can't agree on it. There are plenty of Green minded people further to the left. I don't see them wanting a formal merger with the LibDems. Electoral reform is the key. Countries with more proportional systems have Green parties who can be elected. Some have centrist and socialist Green options |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Feb 23, 2021 11:47:14 GMT
It would make more sense in a way for large number of Labour votes- from those who only vote for it as they see it as the progressive alternative to the Conservatives to switch to the LibDems leaving Labour as a clearly socialist party. Or for Socialists to break away leaving Labour and the LibDems to combine to make a natural Social Democratic Party. But people in the parties have personal ambitions which would probably get in the way as they have in the past. That won't happen with the current electoral system. And that system will only change once Labour grasps it won't win alone. Yes I think we've heard you say that once or twice lol |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 23, 2021 12:11:20 GMT
That won't happen with the current electoral system. And that system will only change once Labour grasps it won't win alone. Yes I think we've heard you say that once or twice lol Given that it's true, talk of splits are redundant otherwise. See Change UK. |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Feb 23, 2021 12:16:26 GMT
I'd prefer it to be called electoral change than reform as the latter word implies something better and a few us us don't believe it is  |
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Post by grahammurray on Feb 23, 2021 12:27:31 GMT
I'd prefer it to be called electoral change than reform as the latter word implies something better and a few us us don't believe it is You should tell that to all the members of the Reform Party. |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 23, 2021 13:14:25 GMT
I'm not too sure about this but a larger Green party/merged Green/LD party would probably be most likely to win new seats in densely populated constituencies and the areas most obviously affected by pollution and climate change. Depending on how much more common extreme weather becomes in Britain, that could lead to more electoral strength in coastal towns in the long term. Why would the Greens merge with the LD's? Many Greens are not liberals. Oops, did I say that out loud? |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 23, 2021 13:22:17 GMT
I'd prefer it to be called electoral change than reform as the latter word implies something better and a few us us don't believe it is You should tell that to all the members of the Reform Party. "Reform" as in "reformed meat"?  |
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 23, 2021 13:50:23 GMT
You should tell that to all the members of the Reform Party. "Reform" as in "reformed meat"? Stop spamming this Forum. |
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Feb 27, 2021 8:50:20 GMT
"Reform" as in "reformed meat"? Stop spamming this Forum. Telling porkies again I see. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 13, 2021 2:16:34 GMT
Here is my first non-Introduction thread post in this forum.
Here is what I think will happen to each party even though that they will probably be bad/dead-wrong.
Conservative: Rishi Sunak will be Prime Minister with a minority government to a narrow majority.
Labour: I'm thinking that Angela Rayner will be the leader of the opposition until the next leadership election following her loss in the 2029 general election, or Labour will have a "moral victory" and she will survive.
LibDem: Probably collapses to a rump of a couple MPs, given that Brexit won't be an issue and they defined themselves as the Remain party. I think in the 2030s, they won't get any MPs and be a rump party with only a couple dozen councilors.
Green: Probably remains the same, it may gain a MP, but however, their targets for a second MP currently has failed.
SNP: Probably divides over internal issues, but then again, I don't know much about the party.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 13, 2021 11:06:20 GMT
So little change from now, basically?
Maybe the most risky prediction of all.....
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mondialito
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Post by mondialito on Mar 13, 2021 11:46:18 GMT
I really think reports of the demise of the Lib Dems have been greatly exaggerated. Progressive anti-Tory votes in places where Labour are uncompetitive still have to go somewhere and there is no real reason why they can't go back to the Lib Dems eventually (although there is an opportunity here for the Greens if they play their cards right).
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Jamie
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Post by Jamie on Mar 13, 2021 11:58:01 GMT
Predicting the future in politics is insanity back in 2010 who thought we would be where we are now?
Though I do expect the greens and Lib Dem’s to merge in some form in the future, the death of both being very much exaggerated/hoped for by the two big boys in the room.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 13, 2021 12:16:14 GMT
Predicting the future in politics is insanity back in 2010 who thought we would be where we are now? Though I do expect the greens and Lib Dem’s to merge in some form in the future, the death of both being very much exaggerated/hoped for by the two big boys in the room. Where is the logic in that? A significant section of the greens are socialist - what would be the benefit of merger with a centrist liberal party? Politics benefits from a distinctly Green voice and merger with the LibDems who are not Greens with a big G does not make a lot of sense |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 15, 2021 12:59:57 GMT
Predicting the future in politics is insanity back in 2010 who thought we would be where we are now? Though I do expect the greens and Lib Dem’s to merge in some form in the future, the death of both being very much exaggerated/hoped for by the two big boys in the room. Where is the logic in that? A significant section of the greens are socialist - what would be the benefit of merger with a centrist liberal party? Politics benefits from a distinctly Green voice and merger with the LibDems who are not Greens with a big G does not make a lot of sense I wish Scottish politics had a distinctly Green voice.😉 |
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