Dutch general election 2021

[connor]

So It will likely be VVD - D66 - CDA with a 4th party coming in to round up. Either CU again or Volt or god forbid even JA21.

[Deleted]

The Ubuntu Connected Front got 50.5% of the vote on Sint Eustasius - it seems their main interest is representing the Netherlands' black community. I haven't found any evidence (it's a tiny party so there's not much out there) that they are primarily based in the Caribbean Netherlands, although maybe they had a candidate from there which also helped? Similarly, Bij1 came second on Saba.

Edit: resolves my second sentence:

[🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️]

Mar 19, 2021 9:40:12 GMT @nw12398 said:

The Ubuntu Connected Front got 50.5% of the vote on Sint Eustasius - it seems their main interest is representing the Netherlands' black community.

Do they use Linux?

[greenhert]

My rather belated analysis: alansgreenthoughts.blogspot.com/2021/03/on-dutch-general-election-of-2021.html

[minionofmidas]

Mar 19, 2021 9:40:12 GMT @nw12398 said:

The Ubuntu Connected Front got 50.5% of the vote on Sint Eustasius - it seems their main interest is representing the Netherlands' black community. I haven't found any evidence (it's a tiny party so there's not much out there) that they are primarily based in the Caribbean Netherlands, although maybe they had a candidate from there which also helped? Similarly, Bij1 came second on Saba.

Edit: resolves my second sentence:

that's not quite right, CDA had a candidate from Saba (in a hopeless spot and he didn't even get the preference votes of islanders, which went to the minister for the territory. Also, this article says three Ubunta candidates from Statia and elsewhere it also says a Bij1 candidate from Saba. Who did get the locals' preference votes.)

[Devil Wincarnate]

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/02/netherlands-pm-mark-rutte-narrowly-survives-no-confidence-vote

[Deleted]

Left-of-centre parties performed poorly in this election, for various reasons. A rather fractured left amplified this effect in how parties ranked in order of votes. The following list of municipalities are where individual left-of-centre parties came 1st or 2nd (I am not counting D66 or CU as left-of-centre here):

1st:

    U-Buntu Connected Front - Sint Eustasius, Caribbean

2nd:

    Bij1 - Saba, Caribbean

    GroenLinks - Wageningen, Gelderland (A university town in the south east)

    Socialist Party - Pekela, Groningen (Somewhat post-industrial municipality in north east)

    Socialist Party - Eemsdelta, Groningen (Similar to above)

Again, the fractured political landscape contributed to this, especially in cities, where the left was particularly fractured (with higher Volt, DENK, PvdD, Bij1 etc. shares) whilst the non-left vote was more concentrated in D66 and VVD than other places.

    

[The Bishop]

Apr 2, 2021 8:17:17 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/02/netherlands-pm-mark-rutte-narrowly-survives-no-confidence-vote

A rather fast comedown from being comfortably re-elected there.

[Deleted]

Some notable results (by municipality):

Best VVD share: 39.3% in Laren, Noord Holland. A wealthy municipality within the Randstad - same goes for the next two highest - neighbouring Blaricum, and Wassenaar, a relatively sparsely populated area between Den Haag and Leiden.

Best D66 share: 25.8% in Utrecht. Top 15 is mostly in the Randstad - including Amsterdam - along with the university towns of Nijmegen, Groningen and Wageningen.

Best PVV share: 30.9% in Rucphen, Noord Brabant. A town which is much closer to Antwerp than any major Dutch city; I'm not too why the PVV do so well there but it's nothing new. The next highest is over 5% lower in Kerkrade, Limburg - a town which fuses in to the neighbouring German town of Herzogenrath. Many of the PVV's highest vote shares were in Limburg, which is Geert Wilders' area of origin. They also did well in post-industrial areas of the north east.

Best CDA share: 42.7% on Saba in the Caribbean, with Sint Eustasius their 3rd and Bonaire their 5th best result - no doubt as the CDA had a candidate (or candidates?) from the Caribbean Netherlands. Their second best result was 35.4% in Tubbergen, Overijssel. The CDA was formed in in the 1970s from Protestant and Catholic parties which were increasingly less likely to win the Prime Minister position on their own, and nowadays it's increasingly less likely for the combined party - but they still do well in rural areas in the far north (particularly Friesland) and east of the country.

Best Socialist Party share: 15.2% in Pekela, Groningen. A post-industrial area, and municipalities in Groningen province take the 3rd to 6th positions in terms of Socialist share; the 2nd place goes to Oss, Noord Brabant. Some municipalities that ultimately merged in to Oldambt (3rd best Socialist Party share) were very fertile ground for the Communist Party during the Cold War. The Socialist Party also did relatively well in Limburg.

Best PvdA share: 12.4% on the Wadden Island of Terschelling. They also did well on the Wadden Island of Schiermonnikoog (10.6%). The Wadden Islands are somewhat known to be the home of retirees whilst also being reasonably progressive/left-wing, which fits the PvdA quite well - they are the Pasokified traditional party of the left, and so they're helped by voters who have consistently voted for them for many, many years and are hesistant to vote for anyone else. Although that's only a hypothesis about their success in Terschelling. They did relatively well throughout the north whilst their best result outside of the north was in Maastricht (9.7%) - the home city of their leader. Their best result in the Randstad/Holland was 7.5% in Zaanstad, just north of Amsterdam.

Best GroenLinks share: 14.2% in Wageningen, Gelderland. Wageningen is a university city, and GroenLinks performance was best in cities in general.

Best FvD share: 10.3% in Brunssum, Limburg followed by 10.2% in Kerkrade, Limburg. FvD vote share correlates well with PVV vote share.

Best PvdD (Party for the Animals, but more generally a more left-wing alternative to GroenLinks) share: 7.2% in Zutphen, Gelderland. I can't explain that one. Amsterdam was their second best result (7.0%) and they also did particularly well on the Wadden Islands; they generally did best in the west of the country.

Best ChristenUnie share: 21.9% in Bunschoten, Utrecht, followed by 19.7% in Oldebroek, Gelderland. Both parts of the Dutch "Bible Belt". ChristenUnie were part of the outgoing government and are socially conservative on issues like same-sex marriage, abortion and euthanasia, but left-of-centre on issues like the economy, environment and refugees. They switched European Parliament groups from ECR to the EPP in 2019 in protest of FvD being allowed to join the former. I think there has been a bit of a 'flattening' of their vote share after being in governemnt - i.e. reduced share in their heartlands and a slight increase in most places elswhere - but I haven't properly checked that.

Best Volt share: 8.0% in Wageningen, 7.5% in Delft - both university cities, and university cities/cities in general were where Volt did best.

Best JA21 share: 6.6% in Edam-Volendam, Noord Holland - an area where PVV and FvD both did well despite being away from their typical strong areas. In general, JA21 did best in well-off parts of the Randstad/surrounding areas and their vote share correlates best with the VVD. JA21 was formed by FvD dissidents after a big scandal (involving antisemitism among other things). Mark Rutte has expressed an intention to involve JA21 in coalition talks, although it seems unlikely that D66 will be on board. I'm not sure how long JA21's existence on the political landscape will last.

Best SGP vote share: 54.4% in Urk, no surprise there.

Best DENK vote share: 8.4% in Schiedam - essentially a western extension of Rotterdam - and 8.0% in Rotterdam itself. Next best was 6.7% in Amsterdam. DENK is a rather controversial party which is primarily supported by people of Turkish, Moroccan and other MENA descent. I think the party is rather inconsistent on whether it is an anti-racist and generally anti-discriminatory party or one which aligns itself with the common prejudices of the Middle East/North Africa whilst opposing those which are traditionally ingrained in Dutch society.

Best 50 PLUS vote share: 2.2% in Vlissingen, Zeeland. The party's official focus is of older people in the Netherlands and I think their best results were generally in places with more older people than average, although the party is a bit complex to understand, especially after Henk Krol, party founder and former leader, left.

Best BBB vote share: 8.0% in Berkelland, Gelderland. BBB is an agrarian party with its origins in the Dutch farmer protests, opposing environmental legislation which would have changed agricultural policy. The party's manifesto is definitely very anti-environmentalist including opposing wind turbines (onshore and offshore) although I suspect some of their supporters and perhaps members take a "focus on Shell and other large compnaies and not farmers" perspective. The party had over 5% of the vote in 14 municipalities, all rural and in the north or east.

Best Bij1 vote share: 25.1% in Saba, followed by 5.8% in Amsterdam. The party won one seat, and its primary focus is anti-racism. The party is certainly controversial - one particular controversy in this election was explicit support for the South African EFF from one of their candidates.

I hope that this was somewhat interesting; I will probably do the same for the worst results for major parties at some point.

[Foggy]

Apr 2, 2021 11:57:33 GMT @nw12398 said:

Best PVV share: 30.9% in Rucphen, Noord Brabant. A town which is much closer to Antwerp than any major Dutch city; I'm not too why the PVV do so well there but it's nothing new. The next highest is over 5% lower in Kerkrade, Limburg - a town which fuses in to the neighbouring German town of Herzogenrath. Many of the PVV's highest vote shares were in Limburg, which is Geert Wilders' area of origin. They also did well in post-industrial areas of the north east.

So, the party often thought of (or at least, referred to in shorthand) outside The Netherlands as 'Dutch nationalist' got its best results in a town that practically Belgian and one that is basically German?   I know Antwerp is a N-VA fortress these days, but are the AfD particularly strong in Herzogenrath? 

I've only heard of Kerkrade because Roda JC went on a run to the later stages of the Cup Winners' Cup back in 1998. I did once know a guy online who lived in a border region so his house was in The Netherlands and his nearest supermarket in Germany. Must've made grocery shopping complicated before the introduction of the euro! 

[minionofmidas]

Apr 3, 2021 3:39:00 GMT Foggy said:

Apr 2, 2021 11:57:33 GMT @nw12398 said:

Best PVV share: 30.9% in Rucphen, Noord Brabant. A town which is much closer to Antwerp than any major Dutch city; I'm not too why the PVV do so well there but it's nothing new. The next highest is over 5% lower in Kerkrade, Limburg - a town which fuses in to the neighbouring German town of Herzogenrath. Many of the PVV's highest vote shares were in Limburg, which is Geert Wilders' area of origin. They also did well in post-industrial areas of the north east.

So, the party often thought of (or at least, referred to in shorthand) outside The Netherlands as 'Dutch nationalist' got its best results in a town that practically Belgian and one that is basically German?   I know Antwerp is a N-VA fortress these days, but are the AfD particularly strong in Herzogenrath? 

No.
Maybe they resent the masses of German weed buyers?

[eurofighter!]

Apr 3, 2021 3:39:00 GMT Foggy said:

Apr 2, 2021 11:57:33 GMT @nw12398 said:

Best PVV share: 30.9% in Rucphen, Noord Brabant. A town which is much closer to Antwerp than any major Dutch city; I'm not too why the PVV do so well there but it's nothing new. The next highest is over 5% lower in Kerkrade, Limburg - a town which fuses in to the neighbouring German town of Herzogenrath. Many of the PVV's highest vote shares were in Limburg, which is Geert Wilders' area of origin. They also did well in post-industrial areas of the north east.

So, the party often thought of (or at least, referred to in shorthand) outside The Netherlands as 'Dutch nationalist' got its best results in a town that practically Belgian and one that is basically German?   I know Antwerp is a N-VA fortress these days, but are the AfD particularly strong in Herzogenrath? 

I've only heard of Kerkrade because Roda JC went on a run to the later stages of the Cup Winners' Cup back in 1998. I did once know a guy online who lived in a border region so his house was in The Netherlands and his nearest supermarket in Germany. Must've made grocery shopping complicated before the introduction of the euro! 

Wilders hardly plays on anti-Flemish, anti-German sentiment. He's in favour of Dutch-Flemish Union.

[Deleted]

Apr 3, 2021 3:39:00 GMT Foggy said:

Apr 2, 2021 11:57:33 GMT @nw12398 said:

Best PVV share: 30.9% in Rucphen, Noord Brabant. A town which is much closer to Antwerp than any major Dutch city; I'm not too why the PVV do so well there but it's nothing new. The next highest is over 5% lower in Kerkrade, Limburg - a town which fuses in to the neighbouring German town of Herzogenrath. Many of the PVV's highest vote shares were in Limburg, which is Geert Wilders' area of origin. They also did well in post-industrial areas of the north east.

So, the party often thought of (or at least, referred to in shorthand) outside The Netherlands as 'Dutch nationalist' got its best results in a town that practically Belgian and one that is basically German?   I know Antwerp is a N-VA fortress these days, but are the AfD particularly strong in Herzogenrath? 

I've only heard of Kerkrade because Roda JC went on a run to the later stages of the Cup Winners' Cup back in 1998. I did once know a guy online who lived in a border region so his house was in The Netherlands and his nearest supermarket in Germany. Must've made grocery shopping complicated before the introduction of the euro! 

Rucphen is very much an outlier on the Belgian border - the PVV vote share in neighbouring border municipalities was about half of that. I suspect it might be something to do with a popular local personality but my Dutch is not good enough to find that information.

Kerkrade is very much just the end of the tail of the distribution of Limburg PVV vote shares, rather than an outlier. Perhaps the fact that it's about as far as you can get in southern Limburg from the relatively cosmopolitan Maastricht makes a difference. As someone else has pointed out, the neighbouring parts of Germany aren't really strong for AfD.

[Deleted]

Lowest 1st place vote share: 14.0% for the CDA in Het Hogeland, Groningen. Het Hogeland could literally be translated as "The Highland", but I'm not sure if this is a correct etymology for this municipality, and it isn't accurate in terms of topography, even for the Netherlands. It is a large, rural municipality covering the entire north coast of Gronigen province. As a rural northern municipality, it is not too surprising that the CDA came first here. The VVD's nationwide success took them to a close second (13.9%), whilst D66 came third with 11.1%, no doubt helped by the easy cycle commute from its largest town, Bedum, to the centre of the fairly liberal city of Groningen. The PvdA came in 4th with 9.6% and the Socialist Party with 9.4% - the east of the municipal is well within Groningen's post industrial area.

In Eemsdelta, just east of Groningen city, no fewer than 6 parties got more than 10% of the vote - with D66 on 10.0% to the nearest 0.1% (I've checked and that's definitely rounding down). Again, demonstrates the fractured nature of Groningen politics, and Dutch politics in general. Het Hogeland had the most popular 7th party - with 9.0% of the vote for the PVV. Continuing on - the 8th place Socialist Party got 7.3% of the vote in Smallingerland, a rural municipality in central/eastern Friesland; the PvdD's respectable 5.8% in Alkmaar, Noord Holland put them in 9th place. The FvD got 5.0% and 10th place in Middelburg, the largest city in Zeeland, whilst 4.7% for the PvdD was only enough for 11th place in the same municipality. DENK got 3.9% in Gouda, and if I was more naive about that municipality's pronunciation (and English grammar) I would say that 11 other parties did gooder.

For reference, 6 parties kept their deposits in South Belfast in 2015 while UKIP where on 4.9%, and I don't think any other Westminster result comes close.

[Deleted]

Apr 3, 2021 14:24:35 GMT @nw12398 said:

Lowest 1st place vote share: 14.0% for the CDA in Het Hogeland, Groningen. Het Hogeland could literally be translated as "The Highland", but I'm not sure if this is a correct etymology for this municipality, and it isn't accurate in terms of topography, even for the Netherlands. It is a large, rural municipality covering the entire north coast of Gronigen province. As a rural northern municipality, it is not too surprising that the CDA came first here. The VVD's nationwide success took them to a close second (13.9%), whilst D66 came third with 11.1%, no doubt helped by the easy cycle commute from its largest town, Bedum, to the centre of the fairly liberal city of Groningen. The PvdA came in 4th with 9.6% and the Socialist Party with 9.4% - the east of the municipal is well within Groningen's post industrial area.

In Eemsdelta, just east of Groningen city, no fewer than 6 parties got more than 10% of the vote - with D66 on 10.0% to the nearest 0.1% (I've checked and that's definitely rounding down). Again, demonstrates the fractured nature of Groningen politics, and Dutch politics in general. Het Hogeland had the most popular 7th party - with 9.0% of the vote for the PVV. Continuing on - the 8th place Socialist Party got 7.3% of the vote in Smallingerland, a rural municipality in central/eastern Friesland; the PvdD's respectable 5.8% in Alkmaar, Noord Holland put them in 9th place. The FvD got 5.0% and 10th place in Middelburg, the largest city in Zeeland, whilst 4.7% for the PvdD was only enough for 11th place in the same municipality. DENK got 3.9% in Gouda, and if I was more naive about that municipality's pronunciation (and English grammar) I would say that 11 other parties did gooder.

For reference, 6 parties kept their deposits in South Belfast in 2015 while UKIP where on 4.9%, and I don't think any other Westminster result comes close.

According to Dutch Wikipedia the name "Het Hogeland" comes from the historic region of Hogeland or Hoogeland and I think the article says it was chosen in a referendum. The article about the region says

"De naam verwijst naar de relatief hoge ligging van de grond, veroorzaakt door de aanslibbing van de zee."

which as far as I can work out means "the name refers to the relatively high lying ground caused by silting from the sea"

[minionofmidas]

Apr 3, 2021 14:24:35 GMT @nw12398 said:

Lowest 1st place vote share: 14.0% for the CDA in Het Hogeland, Groningen. Het Hogeland could literally be translated as "The Highland", but I'm not sure if this is a correct etymology for this municipality, and it isn't accurate in terms of topography, even for the Netherlands.

It's only a couple of yards over NN but unlike surrounding areas it('s core areas) didn't need to be raised artificially to reach that stunning level. In England they'd be calling it an Isle.

(I overlooked the above post, sorry.)

[Deleted]

Apr 3, 2021 14:40:51 GMT minionofmidas said:

Apr 3, 2021 14:24:35 GMT @nw12398 said:

Lowest 1st place vote share: 14.0% for the CDA in Het Hogeland, Groningen. Het Hogeland could literally be translated as "The Highland", but I'm not sure if this is a correct etymology for this municipality, and it isn't accurate in terms of topography, even for the Netherlands.

It's only a couple of yards over NN but unlike surrounding areas it('s core areas) didn't need to be raised artificially to reach that stunning level. In England they'd be calling it an Isle.

(I overlooked the above post, sorry.)

That does explain why the point about it building up through silting is important, which the article I found doesn't 

[Devil Wincarnate]

Apr 3, 2021 3:39:00 GMT Foggy said:

Apr 2, 2021 11:57:33 GMT @nw12398 said:

Best PVV share: 30.9% in Rucphen, Noord Brabant. A town which is much closer to Antwerp than any major Dutch city; I'm not too why the PVV do so well there but it's nothing new. The next highest is over 5% lower in Kerkrade, Limburg - a town which fuses in to the neighbouring German town of Herzogenrath. Many of the PVV's highest vote shares were in Limburg, which is Geert Wilders' area of origin. They also did well in post-industrial areas of the north east.

 

I've only heard of Kerkrade because Roda JC went on a run to the later stages of the Cup Winners' Cup back in 1998. I did once know a guy online who lived in a border region so his house was in The Netherlands and his nearest supermarket in Germany. Must've made grocery shopping complicated before the introduction of the euro! 

The best thing about Kerkrade is that it isn't Venlo.

(Joking aside, both Dutch and Belgian Limburg are unfairly overlooked by visitors)

[Foggy]

Apr 3, 2021 8:01:28 GMT eurofighter! said:

Apr 3, 2021 3:39:00 GMT Foggy said:

So, the party often thought of (or at least, referred to in shorthand) outside The Netherlands as 'Dutch nationalist' got its best results in a town that practically Belgian and one that is basically German?   I know Antwerp is a N-VA fortress these days, but are the AfD particularly strong in Herzogenrath? 

I've only heard of Kerkrade because Roda JC went on a run to the later stages of the Cup Winners' Cup back in 1998. I did once know a guy online who lived in a border region so his house was in The Netherlands and his nearest supermarket in Germany. Must've made grocery shopping complicated before the introduction of the euro! 

Wilders hardly plays on anti-Flemish, anti-German sentiment. He's in favour of Dutch-Flemish Union.

Indeed. I was implying that there must be a streak of pro-Dutch language and hard-right populism in the area, not that there is any friction between the Dutch and the Flemings there. 

On Hogeland: I think the 'Normalnull' is often known as the 'normaal Amsterdams peil' in the Netherlands to distinguish it from the German reference point (even though it appears to be the same height relative to sea level). Merged municipalities like one that seem to have ended up with very broad names. South West Frisia and the Ems Delta sound to me like districts rather than parishes. 

[Devil Wincarnate]

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/14/teflon-mark-rutte-fourth-dutch-term-record-breaking-talks-government-coalition

For everything to stay the same, everything must stay the same. And take most of the year to achieve.