Scottish polls

[andrea]

Ashcroft poll(s)

Holyrood voting intentions

Constituency
SNP 40
Lab 35
Con 15
LD 5

List
SNP 36
Lab 24
LD 13
UKIP 11
Con 10
Greens 4

The figures are quite bad for SLAB for a mid term situation. Maybe that's why they called back Iain Gray!
The actual votes cast in recent by-elections seem to point to a picture similar to 2012 locals with the 2 parties neck and neck (which isn't particularly good for midterm either but at least better than some polls).

Leaders ratings
Salmond -4
Davidson -20 (38% never heard of her/don't have an opinion)
Lamot +3 (40% don't have a clue)
Rennie -8 (50% don't have a clue)

[Deleted]

yes I do think changes since the election are relevant here.

[Tony Otim]

It's an interesting poll. It would represent a 4% swing to Labour in the constituencies, with the LDs continuing to fall another 3% since 2011.

But...

Then the LDs are up 8% on the list compared to 2011. And UKIP on 11% for the list would be a stunning result for them. However, I would like to see those figures backed up elsewhere.

A similar result in the Euros next year would see the LDs hold their MEP, but the Tories lose theirs to the Nats with UKIP just missing out.

[johnr]

While a strong swing to Labour in the constituencies, a swing away on the list, resulting in only 2 gains overall. My calculations would give a parliament of SNP 51, Lab 39, LD 14, UKIP 13, Con 10, Green 2.

[Tony Otim]

In terms of SNP-Lab the list is still a swing to Labour (c.3%), but the share for both are falling to LDs and UKIP

[erlend]

I find that list share amusing if optimistic. If we can hold half that gain in the next poll I will be pleased. Conversely I find the FPTP figure too low even with little happening on the ground.

[The Bishop]

Recent polls for the Welsh Assembly have shown some rather..."interesting" figures for the list votes as well.

[Deleted]

I can not see how the UKIP figure is right. I say this given their electoral performance in Scotland in say Donside was moderate at best. I wonder though if in and around the borders their message is more appealing ?

[erlend]

Perhaps but that would tend to imply 20% in Borders and Edinburgh.

[Tony Otim]

Sept 9, 2013 10:36:14 GMT @ianrobo said:

I can not see how the UKIP figure is right. I say this given their electoral performance in Scotland in say Donside was moderate at best. I wonder though if in and around the borders their message is more appealing ?

Their highest vote share in 2011 was actually in Highlands and Islands region (1.9%), with South of Scotland and Mid Scotland and Fife the next best at just over 1%. Their worst areas were Glasgow, Central Scotland and Lothian at just over 0.5%.

[Deleted]

in that case do we have a rogue figure there ? 11% OK on the list but still there is no evidence anywhere in Scotland of that support level. Is the Ashcroft poll broken down by region ?

[Deleted]

UKIP figure seems way off, they got about 4% in a council by-election the the Borders a wee while back, if it had been England they would have got 20%#+..

[Tony Otim]

It was 3% in the Borders. The only Scottish elections they have topped 4% in so far are Aberdeen Donside and Glenrothes and Markinch in Fife on the same day at the height of the post May publicity bounce.

[Tony Otim]

Sept 10, 2013 9:16:39 GMT @trident said:

Sept 9, 2013 9:53:09 GMT Tony Otim said:

A similar result in the Euros next year would see the LDs hold their MEP, but the Tories lose theirs to the Nats with UKIP just missing out.

I think it would take a miracle for the LibDems to hold their Euro seat in Scotland!

I agree. I was more pointing out how odd some of those figures are...

[AdminSTB]

I wonder if they've swollen the UKIP figures by balancing on the last time vote based on UK-wide voting intention or something, because it's like they've applied the sort of relative swing UKIP has seen in England to Scotland. There's absolutely zero chance of UKIP winning a seat in Holyrood any time soon.

[euan]

Jul 28, 2013 10:36:23 GMT The Bishop said:

Panelbase always appear hugely skewed to the SNP - who is behind them?

Going way back to this, if you search on Google for Panelbase in the news, you'll turn up a couple of stories like this one in the Scotsman: www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/panelbase-bans-new-members-from-independence-polls-1-3080830

It appears possible that their userbase has been particularly successfully signed up to by those of a pro-SNP/Scottish Independence persuasion.

If true, it would certainly help to explain why their results have seemed so at odds with those of numerous other reputable pollsters...

[Deleted]

I find this poll quite unbelievable in so much as the level of support suggested for both the Liberal Democrats and UKIP on the List fly in the face of all evidence in terms of votes cast or other opinion polls. In the case of UKIP, it borders on the fantastic - certainly beyond the wildest dreams of Mr Farage.
I think all polling on the next Hollyrood election as being fairly pointless until the result of the Independence ballot is known. After that ballot, politics will be fundamentally changed in Scotland, one way of another.

[Deleted]

Sept 10, 2013 18:03:38 GMT CatholicLeft said:

I find this poll quite unbelievable in so much as the level of support suggested for both the Liberal Democrats and UKIP on the List fly in the face of all evidence in terms of votes cast or other opinion polls. In the case of UKIP, it borders on the fantastic - certainly beyond the wildest dreams of Mr Farage.
I think all polling on the next Hollyrood election as being fairly pointless until the result of the Independence ballot is known. After that ballot, politics will be fundamentally changed in Scotland, one way of another.

I'm not sure, Labour seem rather unfit to govern one way or another.

[Tony Otim]

I think it's entirely possible that the Scottish public will vote No to Independance, shrug their shoulders and go back to voting Labour for westminster and SNP for Holyrood as if nothing had changed.

The real impact might be on how motivated the Nat activists are to campaign, especially if the defeat is a crushing one. They might struggle into 2015, but could well have picked themselves up by 2016.

[Deleted]

Sept 10, 2013 21:49:46 GMT Tony Otim said:

I think it's entirely possible that the Scottish public will vote No to Independance, shrug their shoulders and go back to voting Labour for westminster and SNP for Holyrood as if nothing had changed.

The real impact might be on how motivated the Nat activists are to campaign, especially if the defeat is a crushing one. They might struggle into 2015, but could well have picked themselves up by 2016.

It is not an issue of whether the electorate wil shrug its shoulders so much as whether the SNP will be able to pick themselves up after a No vote - and vice-versa with their opponents.