Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2013 0:55:51 GMT
I thought we should have a thread about polls relating specifically to Scotland.
Yesterday's Times had Ipsos MORI's quartlerly poll on Scottish public opinion.
Changes are from October 2012:
Holyrood constituency voting intention
SNP 43 (+3)
Lab 35
C 13
LD 7 (-1)
Independence referendum
No 55 (-3)
Yes 34 (+4)
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2013 1:12:35 GMT
Pretty depressing for us tories as usual. By the way how does one list their party affliation on this site (I'm the same Joe as on UKPollingReport by the way)
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2013 8:20:38 GMT
Kris will pick up on it Joe and put you in the blue corner
Your figures can not be as depressing as the LD figure though
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2013 9:08:33 GMT
Kris will pick up on it Joe and put you in the blue corner Your figures can not be as depressing as the LD figure though Comparing it to the actual 2011 results. SNP 43 (-2) Lab 35 (+3) C 13 (-1) LD 7 (-1) |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2013 9:15:52 GMT
Kris will pick up on it Joe and put you in the blue corner Your figures can not be as depressing as the LD figure though Comparing it to the actual 2011 results. SNP 43 (-2) Lab 35 (+3) C 13 (-1) LD 7 (-1) If these changes were replicated in the regional vote then the SNP would not have a majority. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 14, 2013 11:22:47 GMT
Worth noting that the move in favour of independence is based mainly on a huge - and frankly implausible - swing amongst 18-24s, who are (as usual) a small sample anyway  |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2013 15:42:55 GMT
Pretty depressing for us tories as usual. By the way how does one list their party affliation on this site (I'm the same Joe as on UKPollingReport by the way) Welcome Joe. I'm glad to see mine and Andy's recruitment drive on the other place is beginning to bear fruit. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 14, 2013 16:40:30 GMT
(I'm the same Joe as on UKPollingReport by the way) Does that narrow it down so much, though??  |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 14, 2013 23:50:02 GMT
(I'm the same Joe as on UKPollingReport by the way) Does that narrow it down so much, though?? Plain Joe (or confusingly Joe R depending on which computer I login on) rather than Joe James B! With regards to the implausible move in young voters, seeing as how its not cross-weighted to previous voting habits or any other political identifier other than age the figure shouldnt really be analysed one way or the other. They could have picked loads of teuchter 18-24s with a load of middle and old age borderers and central-belters and the reverse in the previous poll. |
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on Feb 15, 2013 11:53:57 GMT
(I'm the same Joe as on UKPollingReport by the way) Does that narrow it down so much, though?? Well at least it's not Jim - though that would of course serve to identify him as a hard-lefty |
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Post by martyn on Feb 16, 2013 15:35:10 GMT
Hi all, my first post here. I take it we don't expect huge movement in the constituency polls in the coming 6-12 months or so given concentrations will be elsewhere. But that in itself is surely a significant headache for Scottish Labour who don't appear to have made the sort of progress they might have expected (and perhaps needed) to?
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 16, 2013 16:06:59 GMT
The constituency polls moved pretty rapidly in the run-up to 2011, and it's never been clear when people are asked about Holyrood or Westminster voting intention that they're really answering the correct one. So possibly, but possibly not.
In any case, prior to the next election in Scotland there is the small matter of a referendum. The impact of that is unforeseeable.
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Post by martyn on Feb 16, 2013 16:30:04 GMT
I'm not so sure about the point that people don't know what they're being asked (comparing most Scottish Holyrood/Westminster polls would refute that) but certainly the huge Labour surge in the polls in 2010/11 can be directly linked to the UK-wide post-2010 General Election factors. Normal service was resumed though when concentrations turned solely to the Holyrood Election.
As you say though, it's all neither here nor there until late 2014.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 16, 2013 16:46:08 GMT
Worth noting that this poll had Lamont on a higher rating than Salmond - or was I misreading it? Yes, SNP ratings for Holyrood at least remain stubbornly high - but as already pointed out, we have seen how quickly these things can change..... |
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Post by martyn on Feb 16, 2013 17:02:07 GMT
Satisfaction with leaders (from same poll)
Salmond 50% satisfied (net down 3%) - 43% not satisfied - 7% don't know
Lamont 39% satisfied (net up 3%) - 31% not satisfied - 31% don't know
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2013 18:15:22 GMT
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 14, 2013 16:08:38 GMT
I've been having a look at these figures in a probably not very scientific way. They are phenomenally good for the SNP. The changes from actual votes in LD seats in Scotland in 2010: SNP + 16 Lab +6 LD - 21 Con - 5 If those changes were applied universally, you'd get the following results: Aberdeenshire West: SNP 31.7; Con 25.3; Lab 19.6; LD 17.4 Argyll & Bute: SNP 34.9; Lab 28.7; Con 19.0; LD 10.6 Berwickshire, etc... Con 28.8; SNP 25.2; LD 24.4; Lab 16.2 Caithness, Sutherland... SNP 35.2; Lab 30.6; LD 20.4; Con 8.0 East Dunbartonshire: Lab 40.1; SNP 26.5; LD 17.7; Con 10.5 Edinburgh West: Lab 33.7; SNP 29.2; Con 18.2; LD 14.9 NE Fife: SNP 30.2; LD 23.3; Lab 23.1; Con 16.8 Gordon: SNP 38.2; Lab 26.1; LD 15.0; Con 13.7 Inverness, Nairn, etc...: SNP 34.7; Lab 28.1; LD 19.7; Con 8.3 Orkney & Shetland: LD 41.0; SNP 26.6; Lab 16.7; Con 5.5 Ross, Skye & Lochaber: LD 31.6; SNP 31.1; Lab 21.1; Con 7.2 Or, LDs holding just two, SNP gaining 6, Labour 2 and Conservtives 1. As it happens I don't think the SNP will do that well, the LD vote will hold up better in the Borders and Fife (as long as Menzies is still standing) |
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Post by AdminSTB on Mar 14, 2013 18:36:01 GMT
Argyll and Bute should be a very interesting battleground. I can't see Labour ever winning it - they have no councillors in the area and next to no organisation. Their local candidate for Isle of Bute in 2012 was an 18-year old (not knocking his age, but that's usually a sign of a lack of available candidates...) The Tories are also still far too toxic in Scotland to gain seats (I believe even their existing seat could be vulnerable). So, unless the Lib Dems pull a miraculous recovery, or else there's some sort of independent intervention, I think Argyll and Bute should go SNP in 2015. Only if Scotland isn't an independent country by then though, of course.  |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2013 19:00:58 GMT
Argyll and Bute should be a very interesting battleground. I can't see Labour ever winning it - they have no councillors in the area and next to no organisation. Their local candidate for Isle of Bute in 2012 was an 18-year old (not knocking his age, but that's usually a sign of a lack of available candidates...) I still find it mind-boggling that Labour didn't/couldn't even put up a candidate in Helensburgh given that it's in Jackie Ballie's Holyrood constituency and is effectively a semi-detached suburb of Glasgow. |
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piperdave
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Post by piperdave on Mar 14, 2013 19:25:08 GMT
I've been having a look at these figures in a probably not very scientific way. They are phenomenally good for the SNP. The changes from actual votes in LD seats in Scotland in 2010: SNP + 16 Lab +6 LD - 21 Con - 5 If those changes were applied universally, you'd get the following results: Aberdeenshire West: SNP 31.7; Con 25.3; Lab 19.6; LD 17.4 Argyll & Bute: SNP 34.9; Lab 28.7; Con 19.0; LD 10.6 Berwickshire, etc... Con 28.8; SNP 25.2; LD 24.4; Lab 16.2 Caithness, Sutherland... SNP 35.2; Lab 30.6; LD 20.4; Con 8.0 East Dunbartonshire: Lab 40.1; SNP 26.5; LD 17.7; Con 10.5 Edinburgh West: Lab 33.7; SNP 29.2; Con 18.2; LD 14.9 NE Fife: SNP 30.2; LD 23.3; Lab 23.1; Con 16.8 Gordon: SNP 38.2; Lab 26.1; LD 15.0; Con 13.7 Inverness, Nairn, etc...: SNP 34.7; Lab 28.1; LD 19.7; Con 8.3 Orkney & Shetland: LD 41.0; SNP 26.6; Lab 16.7; Con 5.5 Ross, Skye & Lochaber: LD 31.6; SNP 31.1; Lab 21.1; Con 7.2 Or, LDs holding just two, SNP gaining 6, Labour 2 and Conservtives 1. As it happens I don't think the SNP will do that well, the LD vote will hold up better in the Borders and Fife (as long as Menzies is still standing) Not a million miles away from what I would expect if current trends continue. Argyll will probably have a better LD showing than that, I'm not convinced about Edinburgh West given the SNP then won it without Labour being that close in 2011 (different boundaries I know but the core stays the same) so it could go one of three ways, I doubt Labour would be the Lib Dems in Gordon and Ross & Skye is going to be the Charlie factor. I think I agree with Kris that Michael Moore and Ming Campbell will perform better than that and I think I will make NE Fife the equivalent of a Tory Eastwood (excluding O&S as I don't think it will ever be anything but a Liberal seat!). |
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