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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2013 10:19:51 GMT
Panelbase for the Times this morning (+/- from last poll)
Holyrood VI
SNP on 48% (+3) Labour on 30% (-) Conservatives on 13% (-) Greens on 6% (-) Lib Dems on 4% (-2) and other on 4%
Regional: SNP 48% (+3) Labour 25% (-2) Tory 13% (-) Green on 6% (-) Lib Dem 4% (-2) other 4% (-)
Constituency: SNP 48% (+3) Labour on 30% (-), Tories on 13% (-), Lib Dem 4% (-1) others 5% (-1) (inc green)
EDIT: Crazy figures.
Independence VI
Yes at 37% (+1) No at 46% (+2) and undecided at 17% (-3)
Although article warns that Yes voters much more motivated to turn out
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 28, 2013 10:36:23 GMT
Panelbase always appear hugely skewed to the SNP - who is behind them?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2013 11:00:40 GMT
Panelbase always appear hugely skewed to the SNP - who is behind them? From what I can tell they're based somewhere down in England : www.panelbase.com/about/ They are a member of the BPC, so not some cowboy operation, although they might have some methodological bias. Had a quick skim back to their polls in March 2011 and it showed SNP/Lab pretty much neck and neck, which is about what YouGov and ICM were showing then too |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 28, 2013 11:30:09 GMT
They do seem to have diverged from the others quite a bit since then, though - and the recent Donside result plus local by-elections don't exactly back up their claim that the Nats are doing even better than in 2011. They tend to give more optimistic readings for the "yes" campaign, too.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2013 11:40:00 GMT
They do seem to have diverged from the others quite a bit since then, though - and the recent Donside result plus local by-elections don't exactly back up their claim that the Nats are doing even better than in 2011. They tend to give more optimistic readings for the "yes" campaign, too. I do agree that it seems unlikely based on what we've seen, not sure how they do their calculations. Although when you compare Johann Lamont to Salmond and Sturgeon you can begin to imagine the possibility that they could be ~10% ahead again. Still it's all rather futile.. with a referendum and general election before the next Scottish election. Panelbase seem to get a higher number of don't knows when it comes to indyref, the actual 'Yes' vote is still ~35% |
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johnr
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Post by johnr on Jul 29, 2013 8:47:17 GMT
In terms of Scottish political views, the IPSOS Mori series seems to be much better - if only they asked people about the regional list as well!!
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 15:27:23 GMT
In terms of Scottish political views, the IPSOS Mori series seems to be much better - if only they asked people about the regional list as well!! I agree, if you're only going to ask one question then ask for the regional. It's what they do in NZ and Germany. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 31, 2013 22:25:59 GMT
YouGov have done a poll on indyref voting intentions:
Yes 29
No 59
Seems to have stirred the waters north of the border.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 1, 2013 15:23:39 GMT
I don't imagine the cybernats are too keen on that one  |
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cibwr
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Post by cibwr on Sept 1, 2013 17:03:58 GMT
And if you look it it, no change greater than the margin of error on the last one they did. So not indicative of movement.
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Post by erlend on Sept 1, 2013 19:18:37 GMT
Yes but the cybernats are probably convinced there has been a massive surge and that they are ahead.
I am sure that the political leaders of SNP SGP and SSP are more realistic.
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libfozzy
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Post by libfozzy on Sept 1, 2013 19:23:56 GMT
And if you look it it, no change greater than the margin of error on the last one they did. So not indicative of movement. Consistently no movement. Not exactly promising to the Yes camp, especially not reflective of the rhetoric of some of the more frothy mouthed of their supporters. Unless they're cherry picking and only using Panelbase's polling, it's consistently showing they're going to lose by a large margin. Even Panelbase's polling still says they're gonna lose. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2013 20:24:16 GMT
I think the 2011 Holyrood election was bad for the minds of many of them. 'Polls were wrong'/Big swings etc. There's not much thought about whether the current strategy is working or the right one.. it's just 'wait and see'..
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2013 11:20:21 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 3, 2013 11:22:07 GMT
Yes, it's the one which has consistently delivered the highest 'Yes' vote, and it's a poll commissioned by the SNP who ensured that the voting intention question was preceded by two questions which encouraged a 'Yes' answer.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 3, 2013 11:25:55 GMT
Is anybody save for our beloved CyberNats taking it seriously, then?
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euan
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Post by euan on Sept 3, 2013 11:46:17 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 3, 2013 11:49:54 GMT
One does rather wonder why a supposedly reputable polling organisation would go along with such an obviously rigged survey, but still |
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Post by marksenior on Sept 3, 2013 12:17:10 GMT
Another poll out tomorrow , believe the results are much closer to Yougov than Panelbase
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Post by marksenior on Sept 4, 2013 21:43:00 GMT
TNS poll was Yes 25% No 47% DK 28%
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