Scottish polls

[AdminSTB]

Mar 14, 2013 19:00:58 GMT @benjamin said:

Mar 14, 2013 18:36:01 GMT AdminSTB said:

Argyll and Bute should be a very interesting battleground. I can't see Labour ever winning it - they have no councillors in the area and next to no organisation. Their local candidate for Isle of Bute in 2012 was an 18-year old (not knocking his age, but that's usually a sign of a lack of available candidates...)

I still find it mind-boggling that Labour didn't/couldn't even put up a candidate in Helensburgh given that it's in Jackie Ballie's Holyrood constituency and is effectively a semi-detached suburb of Glasgow.

I presume they have very few members living within the council area. Even if they have a large base in Dumbarton itself, none of those folk would be eligible to stand in Helensburgh, not unless they were employed there or something.

If Labour do break through in Argyll, Dunoon is probably more likely than Helensburgh. Helensburgh is significantly more affluent.

[Pete Whitehead]

I seem to remember some breakdown from the last Holyrood election showing Labour did best in Helensbburgh and did in fact carry the town. Probably on the old place - one of Aidan Thompsons efforts IIRC

[Deleted]

I either remember the same or have heard likewise elsewhere. Helensburgh strikes me as one of relatively few places in Scotland where there might be a significant element of anti-Nationalist tactical voting.

[alexander143]

Scottish labour has certainly been lagging behind by a huge margin..at least now we should have seen some improvements..but no..

[Tony Otim]

Ipsos Mori:

Yes 31%
No 59%

(among definitely decided: No 67%, Yes 33%

Holyrood Constituency:
SNP 39 (-4 from Feb)
Lab 36 (+1)
Con 16 (+3)
LD 8 (+1)

[Deleted]

Panelbase:

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 36%
No 44%
Don't know 20%

How would you be likely to vote in next year's Scottish independence referendum if the UK was looking likely to vote to withdraw from the EU?

Yes 44%
No 44%
Don't know 12%

Holyrood constituency:

SNP 40
Lab 27
Con 12
LD 5

Holyrood regional list:

SNP 39
Lab 23
Con 11
LD 5
Grn 5

[The Bishop]

Panelbase polls do seem rather skewed to the Nats - and fond of leading questions like the one above. Who is behind them??

[Deleted]

Apparently it was carried out for the Sunday Times and for Real Radio Scotland.

www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/poll-independence-support-would-rise-if-voters-think-uks-leaving-eu.1368959712

[Tony Otim]

I'm assuming they don't reallocate/adjust for Don't KNows in the Holyrood figures as currently all parties (except us ) are below what they got in 2011.

[Deleted]

The independence vote looks more and more than its going to be an embarrassing whitewash. Id guess at 75 : 25 at the moment.

[Deleted]

I'm sure Scotland is going to vote to remain part of the UK, but surely it won't be as comprehensively as that.

[Tony Otim]

I'd guess that the YES vote will be somewhere between 30 and 40%.

[Deleted]

May 20, 2013 14:45:13 GMT joe said:

The independence vote looks more and more than its going to be an embarrassing whitewash. Id guess at 75 : 25 at the moment.

I'm not saying it can't happen, but I'm not sure how you'd extrapolate that from the great majority of polls.

[The Bishop]

Not saying the two are directly comparable, but didn't most polls show the AV referendum would at least be fairly close??

[Deleted]

I think it will be 63-35 to stay in

[Sibboleth]

The referendums in Quebec are worth reflecting on, perhaps. The first was defeated by a shockingly large margin, the second was defeated despite polls at the start of the campaign showing about two thirds in favour and blatant attempts to rig the vote by the Péquiste government. There is a tendency to swing towards the status quo; people don't like change. Of course that doesn't mean that that must happen in this case, but...

[Deleted]

May 20, 2013 14:59:36 GMT @benjamin said:

May 20, 2013 14:45:13 GMT joe said:

The independence vote looks more and more than its going to be an embarrassing whitewash. Id guess at 75 : 25 at the moment.

I'm not saying it can't happen, but I'm not sure how you'd extrapolate that from the great majority of polls.

Because referendums tend to sharply move towards the status quo.

[Tony Otim]

May 20, 2013 17:20:30 GMT joe said:

May 20, 2013 14:59:36 GMT @benjamin said:

I'm not saying it can't happen, but I'm not sure how you'd extrapolate that from the great majority of polls.

Because referendums tend to sharply move towards the status quo.

That's true, but I do wonder whether when the status quo starts with such a big lead, such a swing might be rather dampened. The polls on the issue have been remarkably stable all along and I'm not sure they'll be a huge swing in either direction - possibly a small drift in favour of No.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Both UK-wide referendums have seen a two-to-one vote for the status quo. I have a sneaking feeling that, with people tending to break for the status quo in the last few days, the Scottish referendum might well deliver the same sort of figures.

[No Offence Alan]

May 20, 2013 16:26:48 GMT The Bishop said:

Not saying the two are directly comparable, but didn't most polls show the AV referendum would at least be fairly close??

Yes, but those running the Yes campaign for AV are now running the No campaign on independence.
So there's plenty of time for them to stuff it up again.