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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 1:00:04 GMT
I find this poll quite unbelievable in so much as the level of support suggested for both the Liberal Democrats and UKIP on the List fly in the face of all evidence in terms of votes cast or other opinion polls. In the case of UKIP, it borders on the fantastic - certainly beyond the wildest dreams of Mr Farage. I think all polling on the next Hollyrood election as being fairly pointless until the result of the Independence ballot is known. After that ballot, politics will be fundamentally changed in Scotland, one way of another. I'm not sure, Labour seem rather unfit to govern one way or another. I didn't refer to the Labour Party nor am I making a narrow party-political point, I was talking about the the whole post-Independence vote situation and how it might effect the Scottish body-politic. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 7:43:47 GMT
More about what happens internally to the SNP if Salmond can not deliver independence. How many of the members joined because of the desire for independence rather than say because they liked the policies that the SNP have which are kind of centrist.
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johnr
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Post by johnr on Sept 11, 2013 9:13:41 GMT
More about what happens internally to the SNP if Salmond can not deliver independence. How many of the members joined because of the desire for independence rather than say because they liked the policies that the SNP have which are kind of centrist. The SNP have certainly had a massive boost in membership over the last few years and to be honest, the only thing I can put it down is the impending referendum. No one ever joined a political party by being enthused by competent steady-as-she goes management of government. The question is, if the referendum is lost, (and it will be lost), what happens to Salmond? I've heard rumours that he will step down in favour of Nicola Sturgeon, but once he is gone, the SNP have lost their most charismatic leader, and I suspect that the membership numbers will decline under his successor - whoever they are. Even if they don't implode, they will certainly be a bit subdued, and I would imagine that funding might be under strain too. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 11, 2013 9:36:29 GMT
I find this poll quite unbelievable in so much as the level of support suggested for both the Liberal Democrats and UKIP on the List fly in the face of all evidence in terms of votes cast or other opinion polls. In the case of UKIP, it borders on the fantastic - certainly beyond the wildest dreams of Mr Farage. I think all polling on the next Hollyrood election as being fairly pointless until the result of the Independence ballot is known. After that ballot, politics will be fundamentally changed in Scotland, one way of another. I'm not sure, Labour seem rather unfit to govern one way or another. But that's your opinion now, and it will likely continue to be after the referendum. Whereas the electorate appear to have broadly agreed with you in 2011, they didn't in 2010 or 2012. There's therefore no reason to believe that they have a set position on this. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 11, 2013 9:39:12 GMT
Panelbase always appear hugely skewed to the SNP - who is behind them? Going way back to this, if you search on Google for Panelbase in the news, you'll turn up a couple of stories like this one in the Scotsman: www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/panelbase-bans-new-members-from-independence-polls-1-3080830It appears possible that their userbase has been particularly successfully signed up to by those of a pro-SNP/Scottish Independence persuasion. If true, it would certainly help to explain why their results have seemed so at odds with those of numerous other reputable pollsters... Having given that a read, I think the stand-out bit of information is that they claim to have had similar raw data to everybody else. If that's the case, then God knows what they're doing to the data to get entirely opposite results to everybody else. |
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johnr
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Post by johnr on Sept 11, 2013 9:52:52 GMT
Going way back to this, if you search on Google for Panelbase in the news, you'll turn up a couple of stories like this one in the Scotsman: www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/panelbase-bans-new-members-from-independence-polls-1-3080830It appears possible that their userbase has been particularly successfully signed up to by those of a pro-SNP/Scottish Independence persuasion. If true, it would certainly help to explain why their results have seemed so at odds with those of numerous other reputable pollsters... Having given that a read, I think the stand-out bit of information is that they claim to have had similar raw data to everybody else. If that's the case, then God knows what they're doing to the data to get entirely opposite results to everybody else. I think they must be working on the assumption that 10% of the male population visit the website "Wings over Scotland" and 55% know that Blair Jenkins is the head of Yes Scotland. But other than that, their samples are just fine and dandy. |
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johnr
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Post by johnr on Sept 11, 2013 11:20:04 GMT
I'm not sure that a heavy defeat in the independence referendum will affect the SNP's prospects for the 2016 elections all that much. I was looking at the Quebec referendum of 1980 in which there was a 60:40 NO vote, but the Parti Quebecois was re-elected with a two-thirds majority in the legislature in 1981. We have always known that a significant proportion of the 46% who voted SNP in 2011 were not independence supporters. But what about what happened after the second referendum? Wasnt the PQ dented quite severaly then, even though the margin was closer - indeed very close. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 16:07:04 GMT
If the referendum is lost, it would be foolish to ignore the body-blow effect it could have upon the SNP - never has the position been so perfect for a referendum: the SNP in majority control in Holyrood, a deeply unpopular (in Scotland, especially) Conservative-led Westminster government and a canny leader in Alec Slamond. If they couldn't win this time, when will be the next opportunity - if one comes again?
Party politics in Canada are quite different and we can't compare in an exact fashion with what has happened in Quebec.
I think the SNP would be absolutely rocked and that is why they would lose, not just a simple case of voter fatigue.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 12, 2013 10:36:40 GMT
If the referendum is lost, it would be foolish to ignore the body-blow effect it could have upon the SNP - never has the position been so perfect for a referendum: the SNP in majority control in Holyrood, a deeply unpopular (in Scotland, especially) Conservative-led Westminster government and a canny leader in Alec Slamond. If they couldn't win this time, when will be the next opportunity - if one comes again? Party politics in Canada are quite different and we can't compare in an exact fashion with what has happened in Quebec. I think the SNP would be absolutely rocked and that is why they would lose, not just a simple case of voter fatigue. I actually think the SNP are better prepared for defeat than you give them credit for. There is onluy a small percentage of the SNP who would see independance as their sole raison d'etre anymore. They are there, but they're certainly not the leadership or bulk of the party. There's probably also an element in the SNP (including some elected members) that don't believe in independance at all any more. A crushing defeat will dishearten the activist base and 2015 may be a campaign lacking effort (but they hardly set the heather alight in 2010), but most will be back on board and up for the fight by 2016. I'm also convinced that the party strategists are also already well into planning for the post-referendum world and not many leading figures in the party seriously believe that they're going to win (hope, yes, but not believe) or ever thought that 2011 was a ringing endorsement for independance. Labour surely have to improve from 2011, but it could be a very close election in 2016. The other side of the equation is if there is a Labour led government at Westminster after 2015 how long that government stays popular for? |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 10:58:32 GMT
I think I'm starting to notice a general pattern amongst members here, which is that those who live in Scotland are more likely to have a more optimistic view of the SNP's prospects following a No vote than those who don't. That's not to say that people who live in Scotland are necessarily more likely to be right, and it may be entirely coincidental, but it is something that strikes me.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 12, 2013 11:03:09 GMT
True - although if I'm being pedantic I might say that I'm pessimistic rather than optimistic in thinking that the SNP might still do well in 2016  |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 12, 2013 11:20:42 GMT
So what you are basically saying, tonyotim, is that the CyberNats don't amount to that much in reality?? According to them the polls are a vast English-based conspiracy, a "Yes" landslide is still inevitable, and this can only be stopped by huge ballot rigging?? (I think that is a fair summary of their current "position", tbh  ) |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 12, 2013 11:28:12 GMT
I think there is a small but very vocal minority who are actually deluded/dvorced from reality enough to believe that, who have a much greater pressence online than anywhere else.
I think the majority of the SNP, especially the higher up you go, are staggeringly on-message, but would secretly accept that a Yes vote is very unlikely.
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johnr
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Post by johnr on Sept 12, 2013 11:40:05 GMT
The minority who are deluded/divorced from reality is not that small, and certainly contains a large number of SNP councillors, and even some SNP MSPs.
Well, if you consider being deluded and divorced from reality to include making statements comparing the union to an abusive marriage, that England colonised Scotland, calling the Union Jack the "butchers apron", etc, etc, etc. These arnt noticeably people who are prepared (secretly) for a No vote. These are the people, who after the Glenrothes by-election were seriously claiming that it was stolen by Labour who rigged the ballot (despite it being run by an SNP led council).
No, the SNP have nutcases at all levels, and while most other parties have some, they try to make sure they dont get elected etc. I sometimes wonder if a level of self-delusional fantasy is a requirement in the SNP.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 12:09:06 GMT
Basically the electorate treat Holyrood like A Big Cooncil and will be happy to reelect the SNP, but maybe not a landslide.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 12, 2013 12:18:43 GMT
The delusional "Labour stole Glenrothes" meme was also popular amongst conspiracy-obsessed rightists at places like pb.com and Guido's.
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johnr
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Post by johnr on Sept 12, 2013 12:35:05 GMT
The delusional "Labour stole Glenrothes" meme was also popular amongst conspiracy-obsessed rightists at places like pb.com and Guido's. Yes, but I doubt there were any elected Tories repeating it such as Pete Wishart or Roseanna Cunningham, to name but two. |
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Post by john07 on Sept 12, 2013 12:46:00 GMT
I think I'm starting to notice a general pattern amongst members here, which is that those who live in Scotland are more likely to have a more optimistic view of the SNP's prospects following a No vote than those who don't. That's not to say that people who live in Scotland are necessarily more likely to be right, and it may be entirely coincidental, but it is something that strikes me. I would agree. Salmond is always going to be very difficult to dislodge no matter what the referendum delivers. Those living in Scotland are more aware of this than those living elsewhere. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 12:48:54 GMT
I do have to say that Cameron played a blinder in this one. He bounced Salmond into a referendum he never wanted (knew could not win) and even diverted people away from Westminister like Darling, who if not involved in the NO campaign could have been a danger.
OK some Tories were desperate for a Yes vote but at their hearts even the ones in the SE know we are better for the UK with the Scots than without.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 19, 2013 19:18:09 GMT
You don't think that is at least partly true, then?
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