Scottish polls

[johnr]

There is some discussion that the landslide of 2011 caught the snp on the hop, as they now had no excuse for not putting forward a referendum. I understand they were relieved when Wendy was snapped down too.

Having a referendum means there's the possibility/likelihood of losing. Salmond doesn't like losing.

[erlend]

I thought from outside that she got a raw deal and was a loss to Labour, she would have done better than Gray.

[Deleted]

YouGov from 13-16 September, Sample:1139

Constituency

SNP 37%
Lab 34%
Con 16%
Lib 5%

Other 7%

Regional

SNP 33%
Lab 31%
Con 15%
Grn 7%
Lib 6%
UKIP 4%
SSP 3%


Which would give..





SNP 50 MSPs (-19 on 2011)
Labour 45 (+8)
Conservative 18 (+3)
Green 9 (+7)
Lib Dem 6 (+1)
Margo 1

[marksenior]

Ipsos Mori this week also has a Holyrood VI poll but it only gives a Constituency VI not a regional .
Results
100& certain to vote SNP 41 Lab 37 Con 13 LD 7 Others 2
All voters ......... SNP 38 Lab 37 Con 15 LD 9 Others 1

[Deleted]

Sept 22, 2013 11:51:38 GMT marksenior said:

Ipsos Mori this week also has a Holyrood VI poll but it only gives a Constituency VI not a regional .
Results
100& certain to vote SNP 41 Lab 37 Con 13 LD 7 Others 2
All voters ......... SNP 38 Lab 37 Con 15 LD 9 Others 1

Thanks!

I hate how they do that, what on earth possesses them to ask the less important VI?

[marksenior]

I agree , their last poll in May was the same results then for comparison
100% certain SNP 39 Lab 35 Con 16 LD 9 Others 1
All voters ..SNP 37 Lab 38 Con 16 LD 7 Others 2

[johnr]

Sept 22, 2013 11:53:09 GMT @rlemkin said:

Sept 22, 2013 11:51:38 GMT marksenior said:

Ipsos Mori this week also has a Holyrood VI poll but it only gives a Constituency VI not a regional .
Results
100& certain to vote SNP 41 Lab 37 Con 13 LD 7 Others 2
All voters ......... SNP 38 Lab 37 Con 15 LD 9 Others 1

Thanks!

I hate how they do that, what on earth possesses them to ask the less important VI?

I asked them this a while ago. They said that because people didnt think about the smaller parties between elections, it wouldnt give accurate results. 

The You Gov poll indicates this is a false argument, as the smaller parties VI in that one seems realistic enough.

[johnr]

Looking at the IPSOS-Mori, with change since last poll..

SNP 41 (+2)
Lab 37 (+1)
Con 13 (-3)
LD 7 (-1)

This represents a swing of 4.9% to Labour since the last election.

[Deleted]

strange to see the SNP increasing, it does seem that people are happy with their governing. do we have approval rates for them ?

[The Bishop]

The latest figure is still some way below their scores in 2011-12.

[Tony Otim]

Neither poll seems to offer any suppport for the Ashcroft one showing a UKIp surge though.

[johnr]

UKIP on 4% is much higher than what they achieved in 2011, and on the brink of gaining seats.

[Tony Otim]

Yes, and about where I'd expect them to be given circumstances and all the buzz they've had recently. (I also expect they may fail to get that in 2016 under different circumstances). Ashcroft had them in double figures and with multiple MSPs.

[Deleted]

Wondering if the switch from SNP to UKIP could be a logical decision for a Nationalistic leaning person? With the referendum pointing to a clear no are the polls beginning to reflect this?

[Deleted]

Ashcroft had UKIP bigger than the Cons didn't he? YG generally overestimate smaller parties VI by a few percent.

[Deleted]

Did we pick up on the Panelbase poll from the middle of last month?

Change on 2011 result in brackets

Constituency:

SNP 45% (nc)
Lab 32% (nc)
Con 12% (-2)
LD 5% (-3)

List:
SNP 46% (+2)
Lab 28% (+2)
Con 12%(-1)
Green 6% (+2)
Lib 4% (-2)

[The Bishop]

Is that the polling company which has been "targeted" by CyberNats? Would certainly help explain their results, tbh

[euan]

Yes - Panelbase is the only pollster that's found a No lead of less than 10%, and obviously the one who managed to find a Yes lead of 1% after a couple of very leading questions, which I'm sure had nothing to do with that poll being commissioned by the SNP!

With their results so different from IPSOS MORI, YouGov, BMRB etc, I find it a bit hard to have too much faith in their polls.

[Deleted]

Ipsos Mori


Constituency:

SNP 36%
Lab 34%
Con 15%
LD 7%
Grn 4%
UKIP 1%

Attempting to extrapolate that out to regional vote and I end up with this..

[Deleted]

On those figures can only be a SNP minority control