Scottish polls

[Deleted]

Lab-Con coalition?

[Deleted]

Dec 10, 2013 21:23:42 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Lab-Con coalition?

They're likely to be the only possible coalition partner, and actually I think it could be just what the Scottish Conservatives need to help improve their image. Still it's pretty damn unlikely, especially as in the short history of Holyrood the SNP proved that minority government can be done well.

[Deleted]

Dec 10, 2013 21:23:42 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Lab-Con coalition?

A New Dawn Approaches

[East Anglian Lefty]

I suspect a Lab-Con coalition would be rather harder to negotiate successfully at Holyrood than for local councils. Particularly since there would be an obvious incentive for Labour to deliberately sabotage the negotiations in order to make the SNP form a coalition with the Tories instead.

[erlend]

I don't actually think that a Lab Con with 66 to 63 is viable. SNP minority is.

[Deleted]

Dec 10, 2013 23:35:15 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

I suspect a Lab-Con coalition would be rather harder to negotiate successfully at Holyrood than for local councils. Particularly since there would be an obvious incentive for Labour to deliberately sabotage the negotiations in order to make the SNP form a coalition with the Tories instead.

Arguably there were plenty of cases in the 07-11 term when the SNP worked closelywith the Conservatives and Lib Dems as opposed to Labour and the Greens. Still these kind of things go un-noticed by most. I wonder what the next phase at Holyrood will bring, with the Conservatives the only coalition partner are we set to create a tradition of minority government?

[Deleted]

New poll from Yougov.

Labour back in the lead

Constituency:

SNP 38%
Lab 38%
Con 14%
LD 5%
UKIP 3%
Grn 1%

Regional

Lab 37%
SNP 34%
Con 14%
LD 5%
Grn 3%
SSP 3%
UKIP 3%

[Deleted]

Seems rather unlikely that the SSP would have magicked 3% from somewhere...

[johnr]

I make that:

Lab: 55
SNP: 51
Con: 17
LD:     5
Green: 1
Other: 1

[The Bishop]

Problem?

[johnr]

Well, I could say that such good news needs repeating, but the truth is a dodgy internet connection!

[Deleted]

I'm guessing that the Lothian Green seat is considered safe by the Scotland Votes calculator. As is Margo's seat, but I'd be surprised to see her stand again in 2016 really.

[greatkingrat]

According to the calculator, the Green seat in Lothian only disappears if they get less than 2.3% nationally.

[johnr]

Yes, its Lothians which has the Green seat in that calculation.

And of course, still predicting Margo retaining her seat (which she would do if she stood). However, I seem to recall similar rumblings about whether she would stand again in 2011...

[thirdchill]

Dec 12, 2013 10:55:07 GMT @rlemkin said:

Dec 10, 2013 23:35:15 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

I suspect a Lab-Con coalition would be rather harder to negotiate successfully at Holyrood than for local councils. Particularly since there would be an obvious incentive for Labour to deliberately sabotage the negotiations in order to make the SNP form a coalition with the Tories instead.

Arguably there were plenty of cases in the 07-11 term when the SNP worked closelywith the Conservatives and Lib Dems as opposed to Labour and the Greens. Still these kind of things go un-noticed by most. I wonder what the next phase at Holyrood will bring, with the Conservatives the only coalition partner are we set to create a tradition of minority government?

Minority government seems quite likely for a while, as I don't think either the SNP or labour will want to form a coalition with the conservatives. Still either is more likely than a 'grand coalition' of SNP and Labour!

The SNP made a good minority administration from 2007-2011 in general, even if I didn't agree with all of the things they did. This administration has been less successful. This is largely down to the focus on the independence referendum which has largely distracted the SNP from governing in the present. The labour opposition is also more effective now than in 2007-2011 (although that isn't saying much).

[Tony Otim]

Once the referendum is out of the way, and assuming it's a No vote, does that make the possibility of SNP coalition with one or more of the unionist parties a bit more likely?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Depends how the SNP take it. Their previous experience of being knocked back (roughly from 1977 to 1982) didn't go very well for them, and they are at a much greater height now with consequently much further to fall.

I can't see the SNP ever going into coalition with the Conservative and Unionist Party; it would offend far too many of their voters. It's astronomically unlikely they will go into a grand coalition with Labour, even if Labour were willing (which it won't be). They could form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats but that won't get them anywhere.

[Tony Otim]

In the event of a Tory victory in 2015 (which I'm not saying is likely), I could see the possibility of a SNP-Lab-LD coalition being considered at Holyrood, which isn't saying that the people involved could make it work.

[Deleted]

Dec 15, 2013 16:32:49 GMT Tony Otim said:

In the event of a Tory victory in 2015 (which I'm not saying is likely), I could see the possibility of a SNP-Lab-LD coalition being considered at Holyrood, which isn't saying that the people involved could make it work.

I can't see the point in that, why would the LDs get involved in such a coalition? Also you'd have a grand coalition style unequal distribution of seats.. ~114 vs ~15

[Tony Otim]

I can see all sorts of advantages for the LDs being involved and why both the Nats and Labour might want them in order to better sell the idea of working with the other. I don't actually think this will happen (for one thing I doubt 2015 will give us a Tory majority) but in the right circumstances i can see the idea being seriously floated.