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Post by hullenedge on Apr 1, 2024 17:56:10 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 1, 2024 17:57:17 GMT
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Post by batman on Apr 1, 2024 19:08:27 GMT
and R&W typically aren't one of the pollsters who are regarded as having a pro-Labour house effect.
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 8, 2024 16:56:29 GMT
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on Apr 8, 2024 17:05:29 GMT
I just can't see the Conservatives going that much under 30% tbqh, or disorganised reform doing better than UKIP 2015. Given their underwhelming results in recent by-elections, I think a lot of Tory voters are simply not being completely honest with the pollsters about their support for Reform.
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Post by batman on Apr 8, 2024 19:02:48 GMT
I tend to agree. I reckon if you stuck about 6% on to the Tory share & took 6% off the Reform share you wouldn't be far out. However, it's a persistent feature of the polls, and we could just be wrong about this.
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graham
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Post by graham on Apr 8, 2024 19:40:51 GMT
It will be interesting to see how Reform perform in Blackpool South on May 2nd.
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Post by grumpyguy on Apr 9, 2024 18:07:12 GMT
Re May 2nd, Rotherham Council is all up this year, and Rotherham Westminster constituency is one of Reform's top 10 targets (you'd think). It's telling that they haven't managed to put up a full slate in any ward in Rotherham for these local elections. They look like a national media bubble, lacking local organization, and campaigning skills, and apparently unable to energize local support. I wouldn't be surprised if they weren't outpolled by the Greens in October.
This doesn't mean that 5 or 10% of the public will return to voting Tory. Most of these voters will stay at home I think, and the overall turnout in GB will be one of the lowest on record.
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Post by mattbewilson on Apr 10, 2024 12:40:33 GMT
Re May 2nd, Rotherham Council is all up this year, and Rotherham Westminster constituency is one of Reform's top 10 targets (you'd think). It's telling that they haven't managed to put up a full slate in any ward in Rotherham for these local elections. They look like a national media bubble, lacking local organization, and campaigning skills, and apparently unable to energize local support. I wouldn't be surprised if they weren't outpolled by the Greens in October. This doesn't mean that 5 or 10% of the public will return to voting Tory. Most of these voters will stay at home I think, and the overall turnout in GB will be one of the lowest on record. given the majority of reforms vote is 2019 Tory, Rotherham seems an unlikely place they'd win. UKIP and Brexit party which had larger voter coalitions didn't come close to winning a parliamentary seat in Rotherham
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 15, 2024 18:10:07 GMT
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Apr 22, 2024 16:46:59 GMT
Labour 43% (-1) Conservative 20% (-2) Reform 14% (-1) Liberal Democrat 12% (+3) Green 6% (–) SNP 3% (–) Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 14 April
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 29, 2024 16:39:31 GMT
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