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Post by manchesterman on Aug 15, 2023 23:22:31 GMT
do we know what the change is in relation to the GE? that would be far more significant than the swing cf 30 July Con -16 Lab +11 LD -2 Green +4 RefUK +5 No definition of Blue Wall I assume, but just presuming UNS and considering only those seats in the South East (in absence of a better definition), even such a large swing actually changes comparatively few seats:
Labour wins: Hastings & Rye Wycombe Reading W Soton Itchen MK North MK South Worthing E-Shoreham Thanet S Dover Basingstoke Banbury
LD wins: Winchester Esher & Walton Lewes Guildford Eastbourne Wokingham Surrey SW
So whilst the Blue Wall polls are of psephological interest, the next GE aint gonna be decided there, that's for sure.
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Post by batman on Aug 16, 2023 7:53:49 GMT
On present boundaries Worthing West stays Conservative by approximately 50 votes.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 16, 2023 10:20:52 GMT
Sure this has been mentioned before, but still checking - are the same group of seats used each time for these "Red Wall"/"Blue Wall" polls?
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Post by andrewp on Aug 17, 2023 17:44:24 GMT
How would British voters feel if the Conservative Party were to win the next General Election? (13 August)
Unsatisfied: 40% Satisfied: 35% Neither: 21%
How would British voters feel if the Labour Party were to win the next General Election? (13 August)
Satisfied: 48% Unsatisfied: 24% Neither: 22%
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Post by aargauer on Aug 17, 2023 18:42:19 GMT
On present boundaries Worthing West stays Conservative by approximately 50 votes. Youd probably get that and not Banbury. For the uninitiated: Banbury itself is a dump. The surrounding countryside is very much not labour friendly territory. I can't see them making big numbers there.
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 17, 2023 19:36:08 GMT
On present boundaries Worthing West stays Conservative by approximately 50 votes. Youd probably get that and not Banbury. For the uninitiated: Banbury itself is a dump. The surrounding countryside is very much not labour friendly territory. I can't see them making big numbers there. Chipping Norton will probably be the decisive factor - while it obviously has a very affluent reputation, the town itself scores close to the national average on most demographics. It tends to back Labour locally, but seems more Conservative nationally (both of the last two Conservative wins there coincided with General Elections, and the Lib Dems are the challengers in the constituency as a whole so will take some tactical votes). If Labour can convince their base in Chipping Norton that they are now in a Conservative/Labour marginal, then that could just about put them over the edge. While the rural areas will be more Conservative than the towns are Labour, most of the electorate in the seat are urban.
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Post by John Chanin on Aug 18, 2023 7:15:55 GMT
Youd probably get that and not Banbury. For the uninitiated: Banbury itself is a dump. The surrounding countryside is very much not labour friendly territory. I can't see them making big numbers there. Chipping Norton will probably be the decisive factor - while it obviously has a very affluent reputation, the town itself scores close to the national average on most demographics. It tends to back Labour locally, but seems more Conservative nationally (both of the last two Conservative wins there coincided with General Elections, and the Lib Dems are the challengers in the constituency as a whole so will take some tactical votes). If Labour can convince their base in Chipping Norton that they are now in a Conservative/Labour marginal, then that could just about put them over the edge. While the rural areas will be more Conservative than the towns are Labour, most of the electorate in the seat are urban. Banbury Town forms just under half the seat. It is marginal though, and it would require a bit of a stretch for Labour to win the new seat, even if they can win Chipping Norton. PS: Calling Banbury a dump is a little unfair. There are many less salubrious towns.
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Post by batman on Aug 18, 2023 10:19:54 GMT
Agree with John re Banbury. Some of the town centre is very attractive & historic. And there are some excellent pubs including the Reine Deer (that's the spelling they use for the pub), a very fine historic Hook Norton tied house. (Almost all Hook Norton pubs are attractive, and since there are nearly 40 of them, that's a good thing I'm sure Insp Morse enjoyed quite a few pints of their ale when investigating further afield than Oxford )
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Post by islington on Aug 19, 2023 10:09:08 GMT
Sure this has been mentioned before, but still checking - are the same group of seats used each time for these "Red Wall"/"Blue Wall" polls? Yes, I'm curious about this, especially as regards the 'Blue Wall'.
Has R&W published its definition? Where may I find it?
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Post by robert1 on Aug 21, 2023 16:20:23 GMT
Labour 42% Conservative 27% Liberal Democrat 13% Reform UK 7% Green 6% Scottish National Party 3% Other 1% Fieldwork 20th Aug The site doesn't indicate movements but I make it Con -1, Lab -6, LD +3, Ref +2, Grn +2. Marked changes should we say!
3 of the last 5 polls have Lab lead 'down' to 15%! However, it is more a case of Lab 'weakness' than Conservative progress.
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Post by grumpyguy on Aug 22, 2023 11:36:31 GMT
This is the R & W definition:
"Blue Wall' Seats are defined as the 42 parliamentary constituencies that:
1) Are located in the South of England. 2) The Conservative Party won in 2019, 2017, and 2015. 3) Have a 25% or more population of university-degree holders. 4) Had a Remain vote share greater than 42.5% 5) The Conservative Party won in 2019 by less than 15,000 votes over the Liberal Democrats or by less than 10,000 votes over Labour."
This is from the data tables on R & W's Blue Wall page. The full list of the constituencies is there too. No allowance has been made for boundary changes. My personal take on this is that the definition is too broad to be very useful. Among other things, it means that St Ives is put in the same category as Cities of L & W., which feels very wrong. Their differences are surely greater than their similarities.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Aug 28, 2023 16:16:03 GMT
Labour leads by 16% nationally.
Westminster VI (27 August):
Labour 44% (+2) Conservative 28% (+1) Liberal Democrat 12% (-1) Reform UK 7% (–) Green 4% (-2) Scottish National Party 3% (–) Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 20 August
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 29, 2023 12:09:23 GMT
I see the change figures have reappeared, maybe the person doing their sums had a few weeks off.
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 29, 2023 13:53:56 GMT
I see the change figures have reappeared, maybe the person doing their sums had a few weeks off. Waiter: "And what would monsieur like to start with?"
Tourist : "Well can you give me the numbers of people who of people who ordered soup last week and this, and the people who ordered melon last week and this, so I can work out the swing?"
Waiter: (sotto voce) "Bloody english psephologists on 'oliday !"
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 29, 2023 14:44:40 GMT
I see the change figures have reappeared, maybe the person doing their sums had a few weeks off. Waiter: "And what would monsieur like to start with?"
Tourist : "Well can you give me the numbers of people who of people who ordered soup last week and this, and the people who ordered melon last week and this, so I can work out the swing?"
Waiter: (sotto voce) "Bloody english psephologists on 'oliday !"
With questions phrased like that no wonder they get such duff answers!
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 29, 2023 15:07:46 GMT
Waiter: "And what would monsieur like to start with?"
Tourist : "Well can you give me the numbers of people who of people who ordered soup last week and this, and the people who ordered melon last week and this, so I can work out the swing?"
Waiter: (sotto voce) "Bloody english psephologists on 'oliday !"
With questions phrased like that no wonder they get such duff answers! You don't think my routine is ready for Edinburgh then?
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Post by andrewp on Sept 4, 2023 16:48:38 GMT
Westminster VI (3 September):
Labour 44% (–) Conservative 28% (–) Liberal Democrat 14% (+2) Reform UK 6% (-1) Green 4% (–) Scottish National Party 3% (–) Other 1% (-2)
Changes +/- 27 August
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Post by swanarcadian on Sept 11, 2023 17:43:17 GMT
10 Sept
Lab 45 +1 Con 25 -3 LD 12 -2 Reform 6 = Green 6 +2
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Post by gibbon on Sept 12, 2023 9:08:08 GMT
While Reform appear to be polling on average about 6-7% by the time of the General Election that could fall to about 3% and most of that would go to the Conservatives. The Green vote could fall to 2% split between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The closer the polls are near to Election Day the greater will be the squeeze as our good friend tactical voting will a probably apply.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 12, 2023 9:46:26 GMT
Not sure if the Greens will go anything like that low next time, they could go underneath 5% but there might not be that much in it.
And if Reform keep their pledge of contesting most HoC seats, even a squeeze would leave them with 3% and possibly 4% - that could still hurt the Tories in some places.
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