Redfield & Wilton

[andrewp]

Blue wall poll, with changes since last GE

Labour lead the Conservatives by 2% in the Blue Wall.

Blue Wall VI (10 September):

Labour 33% (+12)
Conservative 31% (-19)
Liberal Democrat 26% (-1)
Reform UK 6% (+6)
Green 4% (+3)
Other 1% (–)

[andrewp]

Westminster VI (17 September):

Labour 44% (-1)
Conservative 26% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 14% (+2)
Reform UK 6% (–)
Green 6% (–)
Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
Other 1% (–)

Changes +/- 10 September

[robert1]

Labour 43% (-1)
Conservative 28% (+2)
Liberal Democrat 13% (-1)
Reform UK 8% (+2)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 2% (-1)
Other 1% (–)

Changes +/- 17th October

[andrewp]

Red wall poll

Red Wall VI (23 Sep):

Labour 45% (-3)
Conservative 31% (-1)
Reform UK 10% (+4)
Lib Dem 6% (-1)
Green 6% (+3)
Plaid 1% (-1)
Other 1% (-2)

Changes +/- 3 Sep

Since the last GE, that would be

Lab +7
Con -16
Ref UK ( from Brexit party) +3
LD +2

[andrewp]

Westminster VI (1 October):

Labour 43% (–)
Conservative 29% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 12% (-1)
Reform UK 7% (-1)
Green 4% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (+1)
Other 1% (–)

Changes +/- 24 September

[borisminor]

Essentially static again - same with approval ratings.

[borisminor]

The one approval rating which has shifted in the past week was:

Altogether, how do you view the current Government?
Competent - 19% (-7%)
Incompetent - 49% (+4%)
Neither competent nor incompetent - 23% (+3%)
Don’t know - 9% (+1%)

[andrewp]

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 43% (-)
CON: 27% (-2)
LDEM: 13% (+1)
REF: 8% (+1)
GRN: 6% (+2)

via @redfieldwilton, 08 Oct

[andrewp]

Blue wall poll


Blue Wall VI (7 October):

Conservative 36% (+5)
Labour 32% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 25% (-1)
Reform UK 4% (-2)
Green 3% (-1)
Other 1% (–)

Changes +/- 10 September

Since the last election in those seats, that would be

Con -14
Lab +11
LD -2
Green +2

[andrewp]

Westminster VI (15 October):

Labour 43% (–)
Conservative 29% (+2)
Liberal Democrat 14% (+1)
Reform UK 7% (-1)
Green 4% (-2)
Scottish National Party 1% (–)
Other 2% (–)

Changes +/- 8 October

[andrewp]

Westminster VI (22 October):

Labour 44% (+1)
Conservative 26% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 13% (-1)
Reform UK 8% (+1)
Green 4% (–)
Scottish National Party 2% (+1)
Other 1% (-1)

Changes +/- 15 October

[andrewp]

Red wall poll

Red Wall VI (22 October):

Labour 48% (+3)
Conservative 32% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 7% (+1)
Reform UK 6% (-4)
Green 4% (-2)
Plaid Cymru 1% (–)
Other 2% (+1)

Changes +/- 23 September

Since the last GE, that would be

Lab +10
Con -15
LD +3

[andrewp]

Westminster VI (29 October):

Labour 45% (+1)
Conservative 25% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 13% (–)
Reform UK 7% (-1)
Green 6% (+2)
Scottish National Party 3% (+1)
Other 2% (+1)

Changes +/- 22 October

[batman]

Talk of a crisis in the Labour Party might be somewhat overblown in the light of the opinion polls. While a majority of voters apparently want a ceasefire in Gaza, it isn't a vote-changer for the vast majority of voters. It isn't for me either but then I despise the leadership of both sides in this conflict, even if I despise one side (Hamas) considerably more strongly than I despise the other.

[Adam in Stroud]

Oct 30, 2023 22:11:10 GMT batman said:

Talk of a crisis in the Labour Party might be somewhat overblown in the light of the opinion polls. While a majority of voters apparently want a ceasefire in Gaza, it isn't a vote-changer for the vast majority of voters. It isn't for me either but then I despise the leadership of both sides in this conflict, even if I despise one side (Hamas) considerably more strongly than I despise the other.

Absolutely all of that is sound.

Keir Starmer (or anyone else) could have the most barking policy on Israel/Palestine imaginable and it wouldn't matter a bugger because (a) the conflict has no practical effect on the vast majority of British voters and (b) there's bugger all the UK can do about it anyway.

The only important thing is not to say or do anything that indicates that you are unfit for office due to either terminal idiocy or being best mates with butchers. Even in then, you've got to be worse than the other guy, and in the case at hand the worst thing you can say about Starmer is that he's no different to Sunak.

Maybe Muslim voters will flock to the Lib Dems (can't see them going Green or Reform) out of disgust with Starmer and Sunak, but I seriously doubt it. I don't imagine that we are going to sweep Bradford, Leicester East, Tower Hamlets or Slough any time soon.

[The Bishop]

It has an effect on an overall small but still significant number of people, who are well represented in an overall small but still significant number of seats.

[batman]

These issues have an effect on me. That's why I am very loth to look at the thread about Israel or related topics having, in any case, had my say previously. But it's not changing my voting intention.

[mattbewilson]

Was listening to a podcast by new statesman. Point was made, don't know if it's true, that after the Iraq war the damage to Labour's vote wasn't significant. I guess you could argue labour lost university seats but still held the traditional marginal seats. Funnily enough where the reverse is now true, labour hold the university seats but not the marginals.

They concluded that the legacy of Iraq was more significant. Citing parties like Tower Hamlets First/Aspire. Though that really would be a legacy as Lufter Rahman stayed in the party til 2010 or so until he wasn't allowed to stand for mayor

[andrewp]

Westminster VI (5 November):

Labour 45% (–)
Conservative 28% (+3)
Liberal Democrat 11% (-2)
Reform UK 9% (+2)
Green 4% (-2)
Scottish National Party 2% (-1)
Other 1% (-1)

Changes +/- 29 October

[andrewp]

Westminster VI (12 November):

Labour 43% (-2)
Conservative 27% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
Reform UK 8% (-1)
Green 6% (+2)
Scottish National Party 3% (+1)
Other 1% (–)

Changes +/- 5 November