andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 20, 2023 17:54:49 GMT
Westminster VI (19 Nov.):
Labour 43% (–) Conservative 24% (-3) Liberal Democrat 14% (+2) Reform UK 7% (-1) Green 5% (-1) SNP 4% (+1) Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 12 Nov.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 21, 2023 17:51:59 GMT
Red wall poll
Red Wall VI (19 Nov): with changes since last GE
Labour 50% (+12) Conservative 26% (-21) Reform UK 11% (+4) from BP Green 6% (+2) Liberal Democrat 5% (+1) Other 2% (-1)
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Post by graham on Nov 27, 2023 17:42:34 GMT
Redfield Wilton Labour leads by 20% nationally.
Westminster VI (26 November):
Labour 45% (+2) Conservative 25% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-3) Reform UK 10% (+3) Green 6% (+1) Scottish National Party 3% (-1) Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 19 November
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 29, 2023 19:20:32 GMT
Here is a Labour lead from Redfield and Wilton
Scotland Westminster VI (26-27 November):
Labour 36% (+4) SNP 34% (+2) Conservative 17% (-6) Lib Dem 6% (-2) Reform 3% (+1) Green 2% (–) Other 0% (-1)
Changes +/- 29-30 October
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Post by batman on Nov 30, 2023 0:47:25 GMT
Well they & Ipsos MORI can't both be right. Wonder which one is. Could be neither, of course.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 30, 2023 8:11:04 GMT
Well they & Ipsos MORI can't both be right. Wonder which one is. Could be neither, of course. Ipsos-Mori are regularly out of line with other pollsters in Scotland, even so, their poll shows a slight swing to Labour. The result of the Rutherglen and Hamilton West and local byelections do not favour the Ipsos-Mori figures.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 30, 2023 11:17:03 GMT
Well they & Ipsos MORI can't both be right. Wonder which one is. Could be neither, of course. Ipsos-Mori are regularly out of line with other pollsters in Scotland, even so, their poll shows a slight swing to Labour. The result of the Rutherglen and Hamilton West and local byelections do not favour the Ipsos-Mori figures. Not just in terms of VI, but with their yes/no to independence scores.
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Post by afleitch on Nov 30, 2023 12:04:33 GMT
Ipsos-Mori are regularly out of line with other pollsters in Scotland, even so, their poll shows a slight swing to Labour. The result of the Rutherglen and Hamilton West and local byelections do not favour the Ipsos-Mori figures. Not just in terms of VI, but with their yes/no to independence scores. Ipsos-Mori were the most accurate pollster in the last Holyrood election and GE. While that doesn't mean they, alone are 'right', they have, at the moment a better track record than R&W.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Dec 4, 2023 17:04:26 GMT
Westminster VI (3 December):
Labour 42% (-3) Conservative 26% (+1) Liberal Democrat 12% (+1) Reform UK 10% (–) Green 6% (–) Scottish National Party 3% (–) Other 0% (-1)
Changes +/- 26 November
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Dec 11, 2023 17:07:01 GMT
Westminster VI (10 Dec):
Labour 43% (+1) Conservative 25% (-1) Lib Dem 13% (+1) Reform 11% (+1) Green 5% (-1) SNP 2% (-1) Other 1% (+1)
Changes +/- 3 Dec
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Dec 18, 2023 18:10:58 GMT
Westminster VI (17 Dec):
Labour 42% (-1) Conservative 24% (-1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-2) Reform UK 10% (-1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 4% (+2) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 10 Dec
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 8, 2024 17:58:26 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention (7 Jan.):
Labour 43% (+1) Conservative 27% (+3) Reform UK 11% (+1) Liberal Democrat 10% (-1) Green 5% (-1) Scottish National Party 3% (-1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 17 Dec.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 16, 2024 12:44:07 GMT
Their latest is a 44-25 Labour lead.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 18, 2024 17:09:10 GMT
Blue wall poll
Labour 31% (+1) Conservative 30% (+1) Liberal Democrat 24% (-2) Reform UK 11% (–) Green 2% (-1) Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 4 Dec.
Since 2019 GE, that would be
Lab +10 Con -20 LD -3
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 22, 2024 17:53:25 GMT
Labour 45% (+1) Conservative 22% (-3) Reform UK 12% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 2% (-1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 14 Jan
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 29, 2024 21:21:30 GMT
Westminster VI (28 Jan):
Labour 45% (–) Conservative 22% (–) Reform UK 12% (–) Liberal Democrat 11% (–) Green 6% (–) SNP 3% (+1) Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 21 Jan
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Feb 5, 2024 17:56:28 GMT
Westminster VI (4 February):
Labour 45% (–) Conservative 24% (+2) Reform UK 12% (–) Liberal Democrat 9% (-2) Green 4% (-2) Scottish National Party 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 28 January
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Post by grumpyguy on Feb 9, 2024 18:35:52 GMT
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Post by batman on Feb 9, 2024 18:57:04 GMT
Larger sample size does not necessarily betoken greater accuracy, although there is a sample size which is too small to be likely to be accurate, too.
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Post by John Chanin on Feb 10, 2024 7:48:06 GMT
Larger sample size does not necessarily betoken greater accuracy, although there is a sample size which is too small to be likely to be accurate, too. Larger samples do have a smaller margin of error, but the improvement is surprisingly small. To turn it round sample sizes of less than a thousand are surprisingly accurate, so long as genuinely random (or genuinely representative). You only need 650 responses to be accurate at + 4% on any sizeable percentage for a 95% confidence level.
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