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Post by bigfatron on Feb 10, 2024 7:55:22 GMT
I think a sample size of 5,000 reduces MoE from ~3% to ~2%?
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Post by johnloony on Feb 10, 2024 8:02:24 GMT
I think a sample size of 5,000 reduces MoE from ~3% to ~2%? 1.4% sigma equals root n p q
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Post by bigfatron on Feb 10, 2024 8:05:23 GMT
I think a sample size of 5,000 reduces MoE from ~3% to ~2%? 1.4% sigma equals root n p q Thanks - I always hated stats at Uni and can’t remember it the way I can other stuff I learned!
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Post by John Chanin on Feb 10, 2024 8:25:16 GMT
You can get over obsessed by the margin of error, not just because of the 95% confidence level, but more importantly because it is almost impossible to get a genuinely random or representative sample because of non response rates. Basically people who answer the phone, or agree to sit on internet panels, are by definition not representative of the population as a whole.
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Post by andrewp on Feb 12, 2024 17:38:46 GMT
Westminster VI (11 Feb):
Labour 46% (+1) Conservative 21% (-3) Reform UK 12% (–) Liberal Democrat 11% (+2) Green 5% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (–)
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Post by andrewp on Feb 14, 2024 18:10:33 GMT
Blue wall poll
Blue Wall Westminster Voting Intention (11 Feb):
Labour 37% (+6) Conservative 30% (–) Liberal Democrat 21% (-3) Reform UK 7% (-4) Green 4% (+2) Other 2% (+1)
changes from 18 Jan. Since the last GE, that would be
Lab +16 Con -20 LD -6 Green +3
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Post by batman on Feb 14, 2024 18:28:01 GMT
you'd see Labour gaining seats in Surrey if that were borne out, more than one in fact
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Post by andrewp on Feb 19, 2024 18:30:48 GMT
Westminster VI (18 Feb):
Labour 46% (–) Conservative 23% (+2) Reform UK 11% (-1) Liberal Democrat 9% (-2) Green 6% (+1) Scottish National Party 3% (–) Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 11 Feb
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Post by robert1 on Feb 26, 2024 17:33:06 GMT
Lab 43 (-3) Con 23 = Ref 12 (+1) LD 10 (+1) Grn 8 (+2) SNP 3 = Oths 2 (+1)
Fieldwork 25th Feb Changes from 18th Feb
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 4, 2024 19:21:37 GMT
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Post by andrewp on Mar 11, 2024 17:04:58 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention (10 Mar):
Labour 42% (-1) Conservative 24% (+1) Reform UK 14% (+1) Liberal Democrat 12% (+2) Green 5% (-1) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 3 Mar
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 18, 2024 17:01:42 GMT
A bouncy R+W poll today.
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Post by bigfatron on Mar 18, 2024 17:45:07 GMT
I didn’t believe the Lib Dem’s up two last week and I don’t believe the down four this week!
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,074
Member is Online
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Post by cogload on Mar 18, 2024 19:24:20 GMT
Good to see our Spring conference has the voting public...hold on...
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Post by robert1 on Mar 25, 2024 17:12:00 GMT
Con 22% +1 Lab 42% -5 LD 12% +4 Ref 14% = Grn 6% = SNP 2% -1
Fieldwork 24th March
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,074
Member is Online
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Post by cogload on Mar 25, 2024 17:33:35 GMT
Con 22% +1 Lab 42% -5 LD 12% +4 Ref 14% = Grn 6% = SNP 2% -1 Fieldwork 24th March 🙄
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,162
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Post by polupolu on Mar 25, 2024 18:25:51 GMT
For what its worth... (i.e. not a great deal), Electoral Calculus has Reform winning Rochdale on these figures - so presumably they have taken the by-election results as their baseline. Plugging in the numbers gives: Lab 463 Con 83 LD 61 SNP 18 PC 4 Grn 2 Ref 1 Lab Majority 276
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Post by batman on Mar 25, 2024 19:50:53 GMT
For what its worth... (i.e. not a great deal), Electoral Calculus has Reform winning Rochdale on these figures - so presumably they have taken the by-election results as their baseline. Plugging in the numbers gives: Lab 463 Con 83 LD 61 SNP 18 PC 4 Grn 2 Ref 1 Lab Majority 276 that’s a ludicrous prediction in Rochdale even by their standards.
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Mar 25, 2024 22:00:28 GMT
For what its worth... (i.e. not a great deal), Electoral Calculus has Reform winning Rochdale on these figures - so presumably they have taken the by-election results as their baseline. Plugging in the numbers gives: Lab 463 Con 83 LD 61 SNP 18 PC 4 Grn 2 Ref 1 Lab Majority 276 Glad to see they’re maintaining their usual standards of accuracy and plausibility
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Post by london(ex)tory on Mar 25, 2024 23:16:24 GMT
For what its worth... (i.e. not a great deal), Electoral Calculus has Reform winning Rochdale on these figures - so presumably they have taken the by-election results as their baseline. Plugging in the numbers gives: Lab 463 Con 83 LD 61 SNP 18 PC 4 Grn 2 Ref 1 Lab Majority 276 That’s mental. I know it’s difficult for us to make a genuine breakthrough anywhere thanks to FPTP, but there are probably 100 places less unlikely than Rochdale. Next door in Heywood & Middleton for starters!
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