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Post by borisminor on Jul 27, 2023 9:47:51 GMT
The Tories polling higher in 'Red Wall' areas than the country as a whole is interesting. Labour gains in places like Bishop Auckland for example might not be so straight forward as they seem I think the 'Red Wall' will be more stubborn to return to Labour and will have a slightly lower swing - but in the grand scheme of things I don't think it will make all that much difference looking at the national polling. To add to this I do think a lot of the shock Conservative holds will be as a result of 'double incumbency' which would likely not be picked up in the national polling.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 27, 2023 9:48:21 GMT
The Tories polling higher in 'Red Wall' areas than the country as a whole is interesting. Labour gains in places like Bishop Auckland for example might not be so straight forward as they seem That rather depends on how the pollster has defined "Red Wall". Also, Dehanna Davison probably disagrees, given her decision, after one term, to spend more time with her family.
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Post by batman on Jul 27, 2023 10:10:06 GMT
It's just one poll. Other polls have found the opposite. In general most polling has shown if anything a somewhat higher swing to Labour in these seats than average and that was shown to some extent in this year's local elections. It would hardly be a surprise if the next poll in these seats shows a swing back from the Tories to Labour.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 27, 2023 11:27:32 GMT
And for further context, the previous few surveys were amongst the worst for the Tories since this series started.
Going from "total wipeout" to "almost total wipeout" maybe just about sums it up.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 27, 2023 11:30:01 GMT
Yes, I'm not sure if odd movement in a marginals poll (the very worst category of polling with a genuinely foul record over the years, as certainly all older members should recall) from a company that isn't really as reputable as it likes to present is proof of anything much.
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 27, 2023 11:54:55 GMT
Worth pointing out that red wall seats are labour con marginals so it's more likely that Tory vote would be higher than average. Much like it would be lower in safe labour seats
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 27, 2023 12:07:02 GMT
Worth pointing out that red wall seats are labour con marginals so it's more likely that Tory vote would be higher than average. Much like it would be lower in safe labour seats Great Britain is a Labour Conservative marginal so its likely that in a properly compiled group of marginal seats, the Tory vote will be more or less average
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 27, 2023 16:42:13 GMT
Worth pointing out that red wall seats are labour con marginals so it's more likely that Tory vote would be higher than average. Much like it would be lower in safe labour seats Great Britain is a Labour Conservative marginal so its likely that in a properly compiled group of marginal seats, the Tory vote will be more or less average yes but the Lib dem/SNP/plaid/NI seats will knock the tory vote nationally
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 27, 2023 16:47:23 GMT
Great Britain is a Labour Conservative marginal so its likely that in a properly compiled group of marginal seats, the Tory vote will be more or less average yes but the Lib dem/SNP/plaid/NI seats will knock the tory vote nationally Well yes although I specified GB as most polls exclude NI for obvious reasons. Fair point about the other seats though. It must be a matter of record somewhere what seats they have used and what the shares were in 2019
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Post by robert1 on Jul 31, 2023 16:11:35 GMT
Labour 43% (-2) Conservative 28% (–) Liberal Democrat 11% (-3) Reform UK 7% (+1) Green 5% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (+2) Other 3% (+2)
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Post by stodge on Jul 31, 2023 20:18:45 GMT
14% swing from Conservative to Labour in England on the numbers provided.
Slightly better poll for the Conservatives but Starmer leads Sunak 40-31 on better PM polling.
The by election "bounce" ephemeral at best as the Conservatives would have hoped holding the contests at the start of recess and with many heading off on holiday.
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Post by borisminor on Jul 31, 2023 20:31:59 GMT
14% swing from Conservative to Labour in England on the numbers provided. Slightly better poll for the Conservatives but Starmer leads Sunak 40-31 on better PM polling. The by election "bounce" ephemeral at best as the Conservatives would have hoped holding the contests at the start of recess and with many heading off on holiday. Do by-election bounces exist? Alastair Campbell's diaries recall a focus group whilst in opposition where not a single one had heard of a gain Labour had made in one (can't recall which).
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Post by greenchristian on Aug 1, 2023 11:57:11 GMT
14% swing from Conservative to Labour in England on the numbers provided. Slightly better poll for the Conservatives but Starmer leads Sunak 40-31 on better PM polling. The by election "bounce" ephemeral at best as the Conservatives would have hoped holding the contests at the start of recess and with many heading off on holiday. Do by-election bounces exist? Alastair Campbell's diaries recall a focus group whilst in opposition where not a single one had heard of a gain Labour had made in one (can't recall which). Liberal Democrats have definitely had some by-election bounces in the past. Probably mostly as a result of the extra publicity a by-election win gives a smaller party. And any effect is bound to be smaller following three by-elections with radically different results on the same day compared to a single by-election.
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Post by swanarcadian on Aug 7, 2023 16:00:51 GMT
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Post by stodge on Aug 7, 2023 19:36:49 GMT
Swing on the England numbers back up to 16%.
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Post by andrewp on Aug 14, 2023 18:42:23 GMT
Westminster VI (13 August):
Labour 48% (+3) Conservative 28% (+1) Liberal Democrat 10% (-) Reform UK 5% (-3) Green 4%(-1) Scottish National Party 4% (+1) Other 0%
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Post by andrewp on Aug 15, 2023 17:36:12 GMT
The wall speaks again
Blue Wall VI (12-13 August):
Conservative 33% (+2) Labour 32% (-3) Liberal Democrat 25% (+1) Reform UK 5% (-1) Green 5% (+2) Other 0% (-1)
Changes +/- 30 July
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Post by manchesterman on Aug 15, 2023 18:49:12 GMT
do we know what the change is in relation to the GE? that would be far more significant than the swing cf 30 July
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Aug 15, 2023 18:58:40 GMT
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Post by andrewp on Aug 15, 2023 18:59:26 GMT
do we know what the change is in relation to the GE? that would be far more significant than the swing cf 30 July Con -16 Lab +11 LD -2 Green +4 RefUK +5
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