johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850 
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Post by johng on Jul 12, 2020 21:49:18 GMT
If IPSOS is correct, 20.25 million have voted today. That compares to 18.6 million last year. I imagine a large number of the far-right's voters will have stayed at home.
I genuinely don't understand the situation with vote counting in Poland. The electoral office said no partial results would be released, but results from small municipalities and some foreign posts are on Twitter.
The US results are: Duda - 55%. Trzaskowski - 45% with 36,000 votes cast. That compares to Duda - 81% and Komorowski - 19% with 23,000 votes cast last time.
Voting still going on in Split, Croatia by Poles on holiday/ living there. Apparently there were queues in Warsaw and Gdansk well after 9pm too. |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jul 12, 2020 22:01:14 GMT
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Jul 12, 2020 22:02:02 GMT
Late exit poll released by Ipsos
IPSOS exit poll for the second round.:
Duda - 50.8%
Trzaskowski - 49.2%
That 0.8% margin is now 1.6%. Looking unlikely that Trzaskowski can make it over the line now.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 13, 2020 1:01:32 GMT
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Jul 13, 2020 7:55:32 GMT
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,715
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Post by mboy on Jul 13, 2020 8:42:30 GMT
Looks like the opinion polling was exceptionally good there then.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 13, 2020 10:13:57 GMT
Bad guys squeak it again, the Orbanisation of Poland will continue.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 13, 2020 10:21:01 GMT
Looks like the opinion polling was exceptionally good there then. Rather the ExitPolls, the polls before were very mixed. |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Jul 13, 2020 11:50:59 GMT
Old habits die hard with voting patterns? It is sort of breaking. Although Trzaskowski has done slightly better than Komorowski did in 2015, Duda has done much better in the rural west than last time. Is Poland on the slow march to a more rural vs. urban divide? It sort of looks that way.
Pretty amazing too that Duda has managed to win by winning only six of the 16 provinces (including none of the top three most populous) and none of Poland's major cities.
2020
2015 
Looks like the opinion polling was exceptionally good there then. Rather the ExitPolls, the polls before were very mixed. They were almost all within the margin of error. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 13, 2020 12:27:37 GMT
What's that patch on the eastern border that didn't go for Duda? Seems somewhat of an outlier.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Jul 13, 2020 12:32:19 GMT
What's that patch on the eastern border that didn't go for Duda? Seems somewhat of an outlier. It's Hajnowka. It has a significant Belorussian and Orthodox minority. |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,589
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Post by cibwr on Jul 13, 2020 13:13:50 GMT
And it looks again that "Congress" Poland voted for Duda.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 13, 2020 13:20:20 GMT
What's that patch on the eastern border that didn't go for Duda? Seems somewhat of an outlier. It's Hajnowka. It has a significant Belorussian and Orthodox minority. Speaking of which, what's with the PiS foothold in Lower Silesia? |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 13, 2020 13:34:50 GMT
Rather the ExitPolls, the polls before were very mixed. They were almost all within the margin of error. Not few OutSiders, perhaps also not some having the KO-guy ahead and those potential cases of herding or sensationalizing. |
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Post by tamar on Jul 13, 2020 14:24:08 GMT
It's Hajnowka. It has a significant Belorussian and Orthodox minority. Speaking of which, what's with the PiS foothold in Lower Silesia? There is fairly significant copper mining in the area and the post-war resettlement there was mostly from Galicia, which seems to translate into a greater likelihood of swinging to PiS under the right circumstances. |
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Post by tamar on Jul 13, 2020 15:56:33 GMT
Oh, and we can't forget that rampant factionalism (read: Schetyna trying to purge his internal enemies from his patch) has very much weakened PO in that part of the world.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 13, 2020 16:00:00 GMT
Speaking of which, what's with the PiS foothold in Lower Silesia? There is fairly significant copper mining in the area and the post-war resettlement there was mostly from Galicia, which seems to translate into a greater likelihood of swinging to PiS under the right circumstances. That's interesting. Especially as you'd think that such a thing would have a similar effect in other places with heavy Galician resettlement like Wroclaw (I was amazed by the obsession with Lwow there). |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Jul 14, 2020 11:11:03 GMT
Final results are now in: Duda - 51.03$% - 10,440,648 Trzaskowski - 48.97% - 10,018,263 Highest turnout at a Polish election ever. Smallest margin for the winner ever too. Both parties managed to add just under two million votes to their total compared to 2015. There were two million more voters than in last October's parliamentary election and 1.2 million more than in the first round. The Polish elections commission website is great and lets you get voting details down to polling station level in English. wybory.gov.pl/prezydent20200628/en/wyniki/plIn some regards I am very sad about this result. Core elements are Polish democracy are under threat under PiS. Changes to the court system, the politicization of the state broadcaster and threats to the free media will remain a serious threat going forward. The campaign was won by Duda on a strongly homophobic and anti-semitic campaign. Worse is that these attacks seem to have been quite effective. Rural and religious voters in the east came out in greater numbers than before and Duda has managed to turn many rural municipalities in the west that were formerly PO. The next parliamentary campaign will almost certainly use these themes again. It's not all bad though. Some compare PiS to the Nazi party which they are clearly not. They are not as bad as Orban either. A lot of what they say is rhetoric more than anything that leads to substantive action - though changes to the courts are worrying. All is clearly not lost for the opposition as well. Just a few months ago it seemed as if Duda would win with little trouble in the first round against the awful Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska. Trzaskowski clearly connected better with voters than her and would be a solid choice to be prime ministerial candidate in 2023. If PO had garnered the same number of votes last October as this time, they would currently have a parliamentary majority. PiS have a slim majority in parliament and opposition still controls the relatively weak senate. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 14, 2020 11:14:13 GMT
Final results are now in: Duda - 51.03$% - 10,440,648 Trzaskowski - 48.97% - 10,018,263 Highest turnout at a Polish election ever. Smallest margin for the winner ever too. Both parties managed to add just under two million votes to their total compared to 2015. There were two million more voters than in last October's parliamentary election and 1.2 million more than in the first round. The Polish elections commission website is great and lets you get voting details down to polling station level in English. wybory.gov.pl/prezydent20200628/en/wyniki/plIn some regards I am very sad about this result. Core elements are Polish democracy are under threat under PiS. Changes to the court system, the politicization of the state broadcaster and threats to the free media will remain a serious threat going forward. The campaign was won by Duda on a strongly homophobic and anti-semitic campaign. Worse is that these attacks seem to have been quite effective. Rural and religious voters in the east came out in greater numbers than before and Duda has managed to turn many rural municipalities in the west that were formerly PO. The next parliamentary campaign will almost certainly use these themes again. It's not all bad though. Some compare PiS to the Nazi party which they are clearly not. They are not as bad as Orban either. A lot of what they say is rhetoric more than anything that leads to substantive action - though changes to the courts are worrying. All is clearly not lost for the opposition as well. Just a few months ago it seemed as if Duda would win with little trouble in the first round against the awful Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska. Trzaskowski clearly connected better with voters than her and would be a solid choice to be prime ministerial candidate in 2023. If PO had garnered the same number of votes last October as this time, they would currently have a parliamentary majority. PiS have a slim majority in parliament and opposition still controls the relatively weak senate. Thank you john for an informative and balanced (psephologically speaking) coverage of the election. It's been very helpful. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 14, 2020 13:46:13 GMT
Not to the same degree as Hungary, but Poland's opposition groups deserve a great deal of discredit for their behaviour, actions and tin ears over the last thirty years. To me, this feels like the first recent election where a candidate has actually tried to take on PiS on substance rather than trying to shadow-box the twin with the cat.
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