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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jun 28, 2020 23:44:38 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 29, 2020 6:49:01 GMT
The second crushing score for the candidate of the Left in a row.
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johng
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Post by johng on Jun 29, 2020 9:22:03 GMT
Final results show that Duda has done a little better than the exit poll with Trzaskowski's number spot on.
With 99% of ballots counted:
Duda: 43.67%
Trzaskowski: 30.34%
Hołownia: 13.85%
Bosak: 6.75%
Kosiniak-Kamysz: 2.37%
Biedroń: 2.21%
Where has the left wing in Poland disappeared to? You are wrong that it is their second crushing defeat. But it wasn't *that* long ago they elected a centre-left government - 2001 for a government and 2000 for the president.
Currently, you've got:
Duda - Conservative Christian populist
Trzaskowski - Centre-right neo-liberal (sort of reminds me of David Cameron actually)
Hołownia - Populist pro-democracy
Bosak - Far-right nationalist
Kosiniak-Kamysz - A mess, but economic centrism, social conservatism and Agrarianism encompasses part of it.
Biedroń - Centre-left
Don't forget though the left did pretty well in the last parliamentary election in 2019 going from 0 to 49 seats and getting 13% of the vote.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 29, 2020 9:44:38 GMT
Clearly quite a few of that 13% voted for the second and third placed candidates this time?
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 29, 2020 17:48:32 GMT
The candidates, who at least claimed to be catholic, collected over 95% of the votes...
Despite the recently negative trend Duda should win this (52%?).
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 29, 2020 20:11:08 GMT
The Graun seemed to be convinced that a defeat for Duda is a win for the Left, completely missing what sort of party Civic Platform are.
Anyway. On an unrelated note, it is fascinating how Poland has settled into a broadly clear pattern of adversaries. Compare these elections or the last legislative ones to the mad splurge of parties in the first Sejm, when the Polish Beer Lovers Party not only took seats, but then joined the government, before collapsing into (I kid you not) "small beer" and "big beer" factions (beer type and Menshevik/Bolshevik puns all intended). Or that bloke who used to throw potatoes at his opponents. The po-faced Polish political scene of today wouldn't countenance any of that.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 29, 2020 20:35:55 GMT
The Graun seemed to be convinced that a defeat for Duda is a win for the Left, completely missing what sort of party Civic Platform are. Anyway. On an unrelated note, it is fascinating how Poland has settled into a broadly clear pattern of adversaries. Compare these elections or the last legislative ones to the mad splurge of parties in the first Sejm, when the Polish Beer Lovers Party not only took seats, but then joined the government, before collapsing into (I kid you not) "small beer" and "big beer" factions (beer type and Menshevik/Bolshevik puns all intended). Or that bloke who used to throw potatoes at his opponents. The po-faced Polish political scene of today wouldn't countenance any of that. Civic Platform are essentially a very pro EU centre party. In both Poland and Hungary the left never really recovered from the last experience of government which in both cases was characterized by high levels of corruption. |
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Post by tamar on Jun 29, 2020 22:12:59 GMT
Final results show that Duda has done a little better than the exit poll with Trzaskowski's number spot on. With 99% of ballots counted: Duda: 43.67% Trzaskowski: 30.34% Hołownia: 13.85% Bosak: 6.75% Kosiniak-Kamysz: 2.37% Biedroń: 2.21% Where has the left wing in Poland disappeared to? You are wrong that it is their second crushing defeat. But it wasn't *that* long ago they elected a centre-left government - 2001 for a government and 2000 for the president. Currently, you've got: Duda - Conservative Christian populist Trzaskowski - Centre-right neo-liberal (sort of reminds me of David Cameron actually) Hołownia - Populist pro-democracy Bosak - Far-right nationalist Kosiniak-Kamysz - A mess, but economic centrism, social conservatism and Agrarianism encompasses part of it. Biedroń - Centre-left Don't forget though the left did pretty well in the last parliamentary election in 2019 going from 0 to 49 seats and getting 13% of the vote. 2001 was now almost twenty years ago and many of the people who voted for SLD-UP/Samoobrona/PSL then are dead and their children and grandchildren do not necessarily share their worldview (which was not necessarily compatible with what would be understood as social democracy in the West). Others have likely emigrated. The failure to understand this is one of the most common analytical mistakes in recent Polish political commentary. The last three presidential elections have fallen into the same pattern of three relevant candidates: one PiS candidate, one anti-PiS candidate, and one candidate who gathers an unstable coalition by claiming to challenge the duopoly and offer vague change. Since 2015, the far-right has also begun to make some semi-respectable showings. The second role is filled by the PO candidate by default (though this may not have occurred this time if Kidawa-Blonska hadn't been replaced) while the third has been filled by Napieralski, Kukiz, and now Holownia. Biedron was a flawed and, above all, reluctant candidate whose campaign was managed by morons up until late May (by which point there was nothing left to salvage), and the Left miscalculated by not realising that its voters were the most scared of coronavirus and the most concerned about PiS rigging a May postal election. The last month of Biedron's campaign was probably the best (because the mentally subnormal and lazy Łódź MPs who'd unaccountably been put in charge were sidelined in favour of Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk), it was just that the electorate had lost interest since there was no real prospect of toggling into either slot #2 or #3. In so far as there is any conclusion on the long-term fate of the Polish Left to be drawn from this, it's that the Left need to commission some proper research into who voted for them in 2019 and why, and what groups of voters they could attract and under which circumstances now, because it's clear they don't actually know and spent this election flying blind. |
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johng
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Post by johng on Jun 29, 2020 22:51:51 GMT
The Graun seemed to be convinced that a defeat for Duda is a win for the Left, completely missing what sort of party Civic Platform are. Anyway. On an unrelated note, it is fascinating how Poland has settled into a broadly clear pattern of adversaries. Compare these elections or the last legislative ones to the mad splurge of parties in the first Sejm, when the Polish Beer Lovers Party not only took seats, but then joined the government, before collapsing into (I kid you not) "small beer" and "big beer" factions (beer type and Menshevik/Bolshevik puns all intended). Or that bloke who used to throw potatoes at his opponents. The po-faced Polish political scene of today wouldn't countenance any of that. Civic Platform are essentially a very pro EU centre party.
Both Trzaskowski and Donald Tusk remind me strongly of David Cameron. I doubt they'd describe him as the left.
Looking at the results, it seems very likely Duda will win reelection - but it'll be within a few points.
Hołownia's voters will need to go for Trzaskowski overwhelmingly for him to have a chance. Though as protest voters, I imagine lots of them will stay at home unless they can be whipped up to vote against Duda.
Twitter is great fun as well with Bosak voters claiming that Duda is a real leftist. Polls seem to show his voters detest Duda, but, when push comes to shove, I imagine a fair few will vote for him.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 30, 2020 10:44:09 GMT
Civic Platform are essentially a very pro EU centre party. In both Poland and Hungary the left never really recovered from the last experience of government which in both cases was characterized by high levels of corruption. I suspect the memories of their previous time in office 1945-1989 don't exactly help either I don't think that made a great deal of difference. In both countries the left did get elected again. It was much more what they did in that time in office. Blatant lies and corruption in Hungary and just being totally useless in Poland. |
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johng
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Post by johng on Jun 30, 2020 15:51:49 GMT
This is the winner by municipality map. It might as well be a rural vs urban map as Trzaskowski won almost all urban areas and Duda all rural - apart from a few rural places in the west and cities in the east.
Some more very interesting maps on this site. The old Prussia is still very visible, but the rural-urban divide is growing. Hołownia's, Biedroń's and Trzaskowski's vote areas overlap heavily so he needs to hope they move on mass to him if he's to have any hope of winning. (https://wbdata.pl/mapy-wyborcze-wybory-prezydenta-2020-i-tura/)
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Post by tamar on Jun 30, 2020 21:11:01 GMT
Someone has made a map of Holownia support, and there are two very striking things about it: - Strong support from ethnic and religious minorities such as Orthodox Belarusians in Podlasie, Silesian Germans, and evangelical Protestants in Cieszyn Silesia - to be expected from someone who is 1) from Bialystok himself and campaigned heavily in the area and 2) radiates polite ecumenical Catholicism - Support in the West seemingly strongest in those areas that saw the most post-war resettlement from areas that are now in Western Belarus, i.e. the part of the Kresy closest to where Holownia is from, which is absolutely hilarious. |
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johng
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Post by johng on Jul 3, 2020 10:24:51 GMT
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Post by tamar on Jul 3, 2020 20:52:25 GMT
Assuming the overall sample in the IBRiS poll is representative, I think the subsample of Bosak voters is around 75 people and the subsamples of WKK and Biedron voters around 24. Probably best not to read much into them.
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johng
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Post by johng on Jul 3, 2020 23:13:42 GMT
Assuming the overall sample in the IBRiS poll is representative, I think the subsample of Bosak voters is around 75 people and the subsamples of WKK and Biedron voters around 24. Probably best not to read much into them. There are no tables to look at like UK polls, but, yeah, you're right. Though I do think the transfer percentages, other than Biedroń's, seem fair. |
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Post by tamar on Jul 4, 2020 2:07:36 GMT
Assuming the overall sample in the IBRiS poll is representative, I think the subsample of Bosak voters is around 75 people and the subsamples of WKK and Biedron voters around 24. Probably best not to read much into them. There are no tables to look at like UK polls, but, yeah, you're right. Though I do think the transfer percentages, other than Biedroń's, seem fair. There never are. The industry is institutionally corrupt. And IBRiS are probably the most transparent pollster in the country. And yeah, I wouldn't be surprised by most of those transfers. |
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johng
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Post by johng on Jul 4, 2020 11:21:08 GMT
There are no tables to look at like UK polls, but, yeah, you're right. Though I do think the transfer percentages, other than Biedroń's, seem fair. There never are. The industry is institutionally corrupt. And IBRiS are probably the most transparent pollster in the country. And yeah, I wouldn't be surprised by most of those transfers. I guess we are quite lucky in this country to have the BPC. Two more polls for Indicator and Kantar showing basically the same thing. They each have a very slight lead. Though the fact the TVP poll shows Duda ahead and the TVN shows Trzaskowski suggests there might have been a bit of push for their candidate in each.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 4, 2020 22:58:27 GMT
83% of Holownia is very high, but might be possible? And hasn't PSL moved towards PiS recently?
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Post by tamar on Jul 5, 2020 0:12:35 GMT
And hasn't PSL moved towards PiS recently? No. PSL doesn't want to ally with PiS because they compete for many votes and they fear the fate of Samoobrona, i.e. PiS using state institutions to undermine them. |
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johng
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Post by johng on Jul 5, 2020 16:57:28 GMT
Two more polls today. I am surprised by the number of polls released actually. Both showing Trzaskowski ahead, but it is all rather margin of error stuff. I still think it's Duda's to lose and so much will depend of turnout.
IBRiS (04/07)
Trzaskowski - 50.7%
Duda - 49.3%
PGB Opinium (02-04/07
Trzaskowski - 50.4%
Duda - 49.6%
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