Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824 
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 5, 2020 21:32:36 GMT
And hasn't PSL moved towards PiS recently? No. PSL doesn't want to ally with PiS because they compete for many votes and they fear the fate of Samoobrona, i.e. PiS using state institutions to undermine them. Ah, i see. Heard some rumours once. But also the regional coalitions of PSL are obviously only one-way:  |
|
|
|
Post by tamar on Jul 5, 2020 22:28:05 GMT
No. PSL doesn't want to ally with PiS because they compete for many votes and they fear the fate of Samoobrona, i.e. PiS using state institutions to undermine them. Ah, i see. Heard some rumours once. But also the regional coalitions of PSL are obviously only one-way: tbf, under Kosiniak-Kamysz they are probably the most right-wing they've ever been. It's just that they also have a highly developed self-preservation instinct. |
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
|
Post by johng on Jul 6, 2020 23:57:09 GMT
Bewildering scenes as the two candidates 'debate' on two different TV channels at the same time. Duda was, of course, on slavishly pro-government state TV. Trzaskowski was on more opposition friendly commercial TV but with questions from pro-PO and pro-PIS media outlets.
|
|
|
|
Post by tamar on Jul 7, 2020 8:11:01 GMT
Trzaskowski got TV Republika and Najwyższy Czas! Bloody hell.
|
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Jul 7, 2020 8:31:56 GMT
Trzaskowski got TV Republika and Najwyższy Czas! Bloody hell. Is that an Edward Hopper avatar? |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Jul 7, 2020 9:30:05 GMT
Trzaskowski got TV Republika and Najwyższy Czas! Bloody hell. Is that an Edward Hopper avatar? "Office in a Small City" (1953) from the Metropolitan Museum of Art, New York. |
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
|
Post by johng on Jul 7, 2020 9:34:06 GMT
Trzaskowski got TV Republika and Najwyższy Czas! Bloody hell. From what I have seen online, TVP were asking questions to the empty lectern of Trzaskowski. Duda has been hiding away from the media so much so he's retreated to the confines of the pre-approved questions of TVP.
I imagine the betting market is rather small, but Ladbrokes says 94% of money staked has been on Duda. Are they right that 'This seems like the purest example ever of the betting markets tendency to over-estimate the chances of populist right wing candidate?''
And we think Question Time is bad...
|
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Jul 7, 2020 9:39:35 GMT
Trzaskowski got TV Republika and Najwyższy Czas! Bloody hell. From what I have seen online, TVP were asking questions to the empty lectern of Trzaskowski. Duda has been hiding away from the media so much so he's retreated to the confines of the pre-approved questions of TVP.
I imagine the betting market is rather small, but Ladbrokes says 94% of money staked has been on Duda. Are they right that 'This seems like the purest example ever of the betting markets tendency to over-estimate the chances of populist right wing candidate?''
And we think Question Time is bad...
Just as on "Question Time" do they think people won't notice?? |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
|
Post by The Bishop on Jul 7, 2020 12:09:22 GMT
In both cases, it will take *some* people in and that is all that matters.
|
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 7, 2020 13:42:15 GMT
Those orange specs are something else.
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
|
Post by johng on Jul 10, 2020 10:13:44 GMT
Polls are consistently showing a one point difference between the two candidates with only IPSOS daring to show a 2 point difference (lead for Duda). It's odd how so many polls from multiple companies are all doing the same. It is really starting to look ridiculous.
The week's campaign hasn't seemed to affect many voters. At the start of the week were the 'debates'. 3.8 million watched Duda's and 2.1 million Trzaskowski's - win for Duda. FAKT, Poland's highest circulation newspapers, revealed that Duda had pardoned a pedophile which didn't seem to get that much traction. Duda continued his attacks on the LGBT community proposing a constitutional ban on adoption as well as attacking the primarily German and American-owned private media. It also took quite a nasty anti-semitic turn with state media and Duda linking Trzaskowski with George Soros and suggesting that he would give Jews reparations with TVP even suggesting that Jews would 'rob' Poland if he were elected. Votes by Poles abroad seem to be holding up with 121,000 of the 180,000 ballots sent out having been returned to the Polish consulate in London by yesterday - though that registration rate seems very low considering there are supposed to be around 800,000 Polish nationals here in the UK.
I'd still say this is Duda's.
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
|
Post by johng on Jul 11, 2020 12:51:16 GMT
The campaign has now ended and no polling/ campaigning is allowed.
Based on final polls released yesterday,
- Trzaskowski is ahead with: IBRiS, CBOS*, Kantar, and PGB Opinium.
- Duda is ahead with: Pollster, Indicator, and IPSOS
But we are talking margin of error stuff with all of them. So much will depend on differential turnout. High in the cities and west in good for Trzaskowski and the opposite for Duda. Trzaskowski absolutely must get Hołownia and anti-Duda voters out and to the voting booth. Signs from the overseas vote look positive with it looking like more votes have been cast in this round than in the first in the UK.
*Though CBOS decided to go comedy releasing two polls with radically different numbers.
One showed Duda with 49.9% and Trzaskowski with 50.1% with the fieldwork conducted between the 8th and 10th of July.
The other had Duda with 56.8% and Trzaskowski with 43.2% with the fieldwork conducted between 29th of June and 9th of July.
Their first round polls massively overstated Duda so I am not sure if they are a serious pollster.
|
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 11, 2020 14:58:46 GMT
I note the attacks on Duda's own attacks on gay rights don't seem to have had much traction. But then I noted in the paper today that Trzakowski isn't exactly a liberal on these matters either. Both of these can of course be explained by the fact that this is Poland.
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
|
Post by johng on Jul 11, 2020 15:24:51 GMT
Have there been any serious attacks on Duda's anti-gay agenda domestically? Poland is not the UK. I saw one poll which showed for men under 40, 'LGBT ideology' was seen as the greatest threat to the nation.
The market for progressive politics is growing but is far smaller than here.
Making the election focus on the LGBT community only helps Duda.
And in what way is Trzaskowski not liberal on this? He's extremely liberal by Polish standards.
|
|
|
|
Post by Lord Twaddleford on Jul 11, 2020 15:36:47 GMT
Have there been any serious attacks on Duda's anti-gay agenda domestically? Poland is not the UK. I saw one poll which showed for men under 40, 'LGBT ideology' was seen as the greatest threat to the nation. The market for progressive politics is growing but is far smaller than here. Making the election focus on the LGBT community only helps Duda. And in what way is Trzaskowski not liberal on this? He's extremely liberal by Polish standards.Liberal by Polish standards he may be, but Poland is still a very socially conservative country (at least compared to us). From I understand is that whilst Trzaskowski is more amenable to LGBT issues than Duda (low bar, if you ask me), he's still opposed to certain matters, e.g. adoption by same-sex couples. |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 11, 2020 16:02:45 GMT
Have there been any serious attacks on Duda's anti-gay agenda domestically? Poland is not the UK. I saw one poll which showed for men under 40, 'LGBT ideology' was seen as the greatest threat to the nation. The market for progressive politics is growing but is far smaller than here. Making the election focus on the LGBT community only helps Duda. And in what way is Trzaskowski not liberal on this? He's extremely liberal by Polish standards.Liberal by Polish standards he may be, but Poland is still a very socially conservative country (at least compared to us). From I understand is that whilst Trzaskowski is more ameable to LGBT issues than Duda (low bar, if you ask me), he's still opposed to certain matters, e.g. adoption by same-sex couples. It's this point in particular to which I refer. The media in the rest of Europe seem to have seen this contest as some kind of battle of darkness and light, rather than an internecine battle of the post-Solidarity centre-right with cameos for the continuingly inept Polish left and a selection of loons and no-marks. |
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
|
Post by johng on Jul 11, 2020 19:07:54 GMT
Liberal by Polish standards he may be, but Poland is still a very socially conservative country (at least compared to us). From I understand is that whilst Trzaskowski is more ameable to LGBT issues than Duda (low bar, if you ask me), he's still opposed to certain matters, e.g. adoption by same-sex couples. It's this point in particular to which I refer. The media in the rest of Europe seem to have seen this contest as some kind of battle of darkness and light, rather than an internecine battle of the post-Solidarity centre-right with cameos for the continuingly inept Polish left and a selection of loons and no-marks.
I don't think that's quite the case. Whilst they may have been in coalition during the wild 90s, the wild 90s were just that - wild.
PiS and Civic Platform have quite different foundations. Freedom Union was always more centrist, 'pro-business' and outward looking. Civic Platform is a New Labour style 'natural party of government' with middle of the road, try to appeal to lots of people policies. It's also a party with firm constituency in urban Poland A. Donald Tusk and Trzaskowski are Tony Blair or David Cameron style characters.
PiS was launched by the Kaczynski twins and it remains the Jarosław Kaczynski party. Their party was always far more inward looking, socially conservative and Christian. They've only gone further to the right since then and have found great success on focusing on nationalists, Poland B and the religiously devout. They have also managed to outflank parties of the left through their extensive and costly social programmes.
I really don't think it is an internecine battle either. Where are the other parties? You are right, they were no-marks in the first round. The debate and political focus has centred on these two parties to the detriment of others. As the nation becomes more polarized, third parties get fewer and fewer votes.
|
|
|
|
Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 11, 2020 19:12:07 GMT
Liberal by Polish standards he may be, but Poland is still a very socially conservative country (at least compared to us). From I understand is that whilst Trzaskowski is more ameable to LGBT issues than Duda (low bar, if you ask me), he's still opposed to certain matters, e.g. adoption by same-sex couples. It's this point in particular to which I refer. The media in the rest of Europe seem to have seen this contest as some kind of battle of darkness and light, rather than an internecine battle of the post-Solidarity centre-right with cameos for the continuingly inept Polish left and a selection of loons and no-marks. But if we reject the idea that left v right is darkness v light, (which I hope we do) is there not mileage in the idea that a battle between a centre right that is willing to respect the constitution, an independent judiciary, free press and a loyal opposition, and a centre right that doesn't on all counts, can be regarded as Manichean? |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 11, 2020 22:57:43 GMT
an internecine battle of the post-Solidarity centre-right with cameos for the continuingly inept Polish left and a selection of loons and no-marks. And this was absolutely expectable, when Kacynski and Tusk split. (Perhaps it was even their secret plan in order to replace the exCommunists?) |
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
|
Post by johng on Jul 12, 2020 12:12:34 GMT
Midday turnout is looking extremely similar in this round to the first. Up very slightly in some cities and down slightly in others though big city turnout is down slightly overall. It's the same in the provinces with some up and some down slightly though small town turnout is up almost everywhere.
Possibly a good sign for Trzaskowski as Hołownia voters are obviously turning up at the polling stations. A good sign for Duda is those small town voters are turning up in greater numbers than last time. It is only midday of course and polls don't close until 9pm local. Good weather across Poland all day. |
|
