Poland - presidential election to go ahead in May?

[Devil Wincarnate]

johng, is there anything significant in those specific areas with higher turnouts? Noticeable in the far south and around Sczecin.

[johng]

Jul 12, 2020 13:09:07 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

johng , is there anything significant in those specific areas with higher turnouts? Noticeable in the far south and around Sczecin.

I'm not really sure.

The same pattern was seen in the first round. Those areas in the far south had high turnout at 12 o'clock in the first round but ended the day with average turnout. 

It's hard to tell anything much from the turnout figures really. My impression is that there'll be great relief in Trzaskowski's camp that turnout is holding up, but that the numbers are probably more positive for Duda.

[iang]

My impression (from my wife watching the Polish news, which I don't understand) was that there was something of an East/West split, with the East more (socially) conservative, the west (relatively) more liberal. So (it that's correct) turn out across the country geographically could make a difference

[johng]

Jul 12, 2020 14:32:29 GMT iang said:

My impression (from my wife watching the Polish news, which I don't understand) was that there was something of an East/West split, with the East more (socially) conservative, the west (relatively) more liberal. So (it that's correct) turn out across the country geographically could make a difference

That is Poland A and Poland B.

A is generally wealthier, better developed, has better infrastructure and votes PO.

B is poorer, less developed, more religious, more rural and votes PiS.

The first round in 2015 shows the boundaries. In 2020 a lot of people in A voted for other candidates, but the second round will almost certainly look something like this.

[Devil Wincarnate]

I'm sure someone posted a map here ages ago where you could see that PiS strongholds corresponded strongly to areas that had been in the Russian partition, and Civic Platform strongholds to the Austrian Partition and the territories taken from Germany after the war.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Polls close 8 PM UK time. The exit poll for the first round understated Duda by 1.7% but got Trzaskowski pretty much spot on.

[johng]

The parts taken from Germany after the war were far more developed in terms of the economy and infrastructure and nothing much has changed in the 75 years since.
This was the rail network in 1953. The image speaks for itself - upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/22/PKP1952-53.jpg/1280px-PKP1952-53.jpg


I don't know why the electoral commission have delayed the release of the 5pm turnout figures. They should have been out a while ago.

From the few things I have seen on Twitter, 5pm large city turnout is supposedly up on the first round (Warsaw 3%, Poznan 2%, Szczecin 3%). There's also a supposed leak of the early exit poll showing Duda on 51.45%. None of these numbers are official of course.

Edit: On the exit poll, PO pundits would like us to believe the elderly all vote after mass in the morning and urbanites and the young vote in the afternoon and evening.

Edit 2: Europe Elects has posted this on their twitter. 3.2% is quite a jump. The real question though is where has the turnout grown the most.

@europeelects

Poland, Presidential election:

Turnout at 5PM CEST

2020: 52.1% (5PM, run-off))
2020: 47.9% (5PM, first round)

[Georg Ebner]

Jul 12, 2020 16:10:42 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

I'm sure someone posted a map here ages ago where you could see that PiS strongholds corresponded strongly to areas that had been in the Russian partition, and Civic Platform strongholds to the Austrian Partition and the territories taken from Germany after the war.

2000 pres., Kalinowski:



2000 pres., Lepper:



2003 ref., EU-entry:



2011 parl.:



2019 parl., KO:



In 2000 only these 2 were already showing the old BorderLine.
[Posting these maps in Germany would be forbidden, i suppose...]

[johng]

And 5pm figures are now officially out.

Overall turnout is 52.1% vs 47.9% in round 1.
Big city turnout is up 3.06% (Warsaw 57.7% vs 54.8%. Poznan 55.8% vs 53.2%. Gdansk 51% vs 47.6% and so on). This compares to being down 0.3% at midday.
Small town turnout is up even more though at 5-6% depending on town size. From around 45% to 50-51%. This compares to being up 1.5-2% at midday.

This is going to be very close indeed. Both candidates have something positive to see in the figures.

Trzaskowski is undoubtedly relieved that not only have third candidate voters turned out in the cities and the west rather than abstaining, but voters there have turned out  in greater numbers than the first round.

Duda will be happy that his Polish nationalist anti-LGBT and anti-semitic campaign has been successful in driving turnout higher in his heartlands.

I'm going to guess that whoever wins will win with less than a percentage point.

Edit: Someone posted this image on Twitter comparing 5pm round 1 and 2 turnouts. Pretty difficult to see a pattern that would greatly benefit either candidate to be honest. The region in south central Poland is industrial Silesia where the main Covid breakout is. I wonder if that's having an effect on the vote. That's bad news for Trzaskowski because he would have wanted a high turnout there.

[johng]

Polls close in 10 minutes.

I've seen some pics of queues still at polling stations which is a good sign.

There should be an exit poll out very shortly after polls close. The last one showed Duda 2 points below what he actually got, but they may have changed the methodology since then. Foreign voters will make up about 1-2% of the electorate and won't be counted in the exit poll.

The electoral commission there have announced their next press conference is at 10pm local to announce the final turnout figures.

[johng]

IPSOS exit poll for the second round.:

Duda - 50.4%
Trzaskowski - 49.6%
Turnout - 68.9%

Looking good for Duda but a bit too close to call really.


The first round exit poll showed Duda on 41.8% and Trzaskowski on 30.4% when the actual result was 43.5% and 30.5%. That's 1.7% under for Duda and 0.1% under for Trzaskowski. I imagine their methodology has been changed slightly to account for the slight error in the first round. Overseas voters are not included in the exit poll and make up about 1.5% of the electorate.

Edit:
Duda has just claimed a decisive victory whilst IPSOS are saying that the exit poll margin of victory is below the 2% margin of error. Another exit poll with data from the evening and more calculation will be released at 11pm. I think a lot of commentators are expecting the same increase for Duda based on the exit poll as in the first round. 

Edit 2:

Just talking to a good Polish friend. Trzaskowski has also claimed victory which means this will be messy. State television TVP has spent the last 30 minutes at the Duda rally with a huge headline saying 'Duda wins election'. This is banana republic sort of stuff, surely!?

[minionofmidas]

Jul 12, 2020 19:00:57 GMT johng said:

This is banana republic sort of stuff, surely!?

[/div][/quote]
give it a few decades of global warming. So far the climate is not suited to the growing of bananas for export.

Highly amusing exit poll. The herding continues (or else has been vindicated).

[minionofmidas]

2019 parl., KO:



In 2000 only these 2 were already showing the old BorderLine.
[Posting these maps in Germany would be forbidden, i suppose...]

The really amusing thing is that it's the pre1918 border, not the pre1945 border. Which makes it more difficult to satisfactorily explain (the areas ceded in 1918 always being absolutely culturally part of Poland even when under Prussian occupation).
And that it didn't emerge until the PiS-PO political system did, of course. Agrarian populists didn't do too badly in some places west of the line before Kaczynski.

[minionofmidas]

Using voivodeships can only obscure the line so much, either... (2020 exit poll)

[johng]

One of the campaign highlights:
Kinga Duda, Duda's daughter, was on stage next to her father at the victory celebration proclaiming that nobody deserves to be an object of hatred. No matter what they believe, their colour, their views or who they love.
You really couldn't make this stuff up.

If you'd like to play with the exit poll. It's available here: tvn24.pl/wybory-prezydenckie-2020

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jul 12, 2020 20:13:36 GMT johng said:

One of the campaign highlights:
Kinga Duda, Duda's daughter, was on stage next to her father at the victory celebration proclaiming that nobody deserves to be an object of hatred. No matter what they believe, their colour, their views or who they love.
You really couldn't make this stuff up.

If you'd like to play with the exit poll. It's available here: tvn24.pl/wybory-prezydenckie-2020

Kinga Duda sounds like a bad Polish remake of the Big Lebowski.

[Harry Hayfield]

I've been watching TVP online since the exit poll was published and all they are saying is "Look how big a margin the President has won by" demonstrated by showing the President's rally non stop from the exit poll publication for a good half hour or so. And then I read that TVP has a love in with his party (never reporting anything bad about them). Which poses the question "When are they votes being counted?"

[Andrew_S]

Official results.

wybory.gov.pl/prezydent20200628/pl/frekwencja/2/17/pl

[johng]

Results will be available here: wybory.gov.pl/prezydent20200628/en But the electoral commission has announced there'll be no partial results released. Full results with the international vote won't be available until Tuesday.

And on TVP. It's awful. People here complain about the BBC, but they don't even pretend to be impartial.

The exit poll shows a 0.8 point lead and there's a 2.0% margin of error. It's madness to say anyone has won. I just looked, they still have the headline that Duda has won the election. That's been on the screen for over two hours now.

Interesting that the exit poll shows that Trzaskowski gained the majority of votes from voters of all parties in the 2019 general election other than PiS. Even the far-right preferred him by a twenty point margin to Duda.

[Harry Hayfield]

I realise that it is a little unlikely that you would have a 100% vote retention between Parliament and President, but if you did and that exit poll is correct then these would be the tallies:

PiS voters: Duda 7,759,425 Trzaskowski 265,510
KO voters: Duda 91,086 Trzaskowski 4,969,269
SLD voters: Duda 190,236 Trzaskowski 2,129,710
PSL voters: Duda 453,036 Trzaskowski 1,125,487
KWiN voters: Duda 491,469 Trzaskowski 765,484
Totals: Duda 8,985,252 Trzaskowski 9,255,460