Austrian federal elections

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 29, 2024 15:33:23 GMT swanarcadian said:

Pretty much as expected so far.

FPÖ a little bit stronger than polled (cf. the list on page 8).

[stodge]

On the projected number of seats - I'm watching ORF 2 live without any issues - the FPO and SPO combined would have a majority (97) in the Nationalrat.

The OVP down to 52 seats with both NEOS and Greens on 17 each.

All sorts of possible permutations for coalition building.

[stodge]

Sept 29, 2024 15:36:19 GMT Georg Ebner said:

ÖVP&SPÖ are presently slightly below the 92 seats required.

But well past it with NEOS support.

If an FPO-OVP coalition is off the table (as it seems to be), the question is with whom would be the SPO, NEOS and the Greens go. If two of them go with the OVP, that would be enough for a majority.

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 29, 2024 15:42:36 GMT stodge said:

Sept 29, 2024 15:36:19 GMT Georg Ebner said:

ÖVP&SPÖ are presently slightly below the 92 seats required.

But well past it with NEOS support.

If an FPO-OVP coalition is off the table (as it seems to be), the question is with whom would be the SPO, NEOS and the Greens go. If two of them go with the OVP, that would be enough for a majority.

It will be either FPÖVP (likely for the lefties, very unlikely for me) or ÖVP&SPÖ&NEOS.
TheGreens are quite out of question for ÖVP and SPÖ-Vienna.

[Georg Ebner]

ConGratulations to ÖVP - their very risky strategy worked out in the end!

The left (incl. NEOS, Beer) at just ~42% is incredible - a new low a la 2017.

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 29, 2024 15:39:46 GMT stodge said:

On the projected number of seats - I'm watching ORF 2 live without any issues - the FPO and SPO combined would have a majority (97) in the Nationalrat.

The OVP down to 52 seats with both NEOS and Greens on 17 each.

All sorts of possible permutations for coalition building.

Yes and Fico residues just few kiloMetres away. And both would like to end ÖVP's uninterrupted reign of 37 years in government.
But the SPÖ depends already too strong on academics & imMigrants (although most have no passport, the rest a low participation). In opinionPolls it's roughly 1/3 of SPÖ-voters, who would support/tolerate such a coalition (so basically the same share as Labour's LeaveVoters: too substantial to ignore them, but not the majority, let alone the future).

[Georg Ebner]

ForeSight has corrected its SPÖ-proGnosis upwards to 21.0%, last time it received 21.2%, thus it might at least be in the end not its worst result ever.
Giving on the one hand ÖVP&SPÖ 93/183, on the other hand it would make a reTreat of Babler - and as a conSequence this coalition - more unlikely (anyWay the SPÖ-presidency cannot simply drop Babler tomorrow, as he was elected by the membership).

[Georg Ebner]

Look at this:

SPÖ reduced to Vienna and few traditional fortresses (cities, exMining, railWay-stations, Slovenes, in LowerA. commuterRoutes in the NE and exIndustry in the SE, the special miniMundus of Burgenland):

Because of counting toDay already 80% of the 1-1.2m PostalVotes the final result will be not known before 23.00. Seemingly technical problems at the ministry (Russian sabotage?).

[Georg Ebner]

A cousin of mine was ÖVP's leader in Carinthia-West. For getting directly elected, he would have needed not less than 10.5% more...
Perhaps he can come in via the list of Carinthia as a whole (if he wants, what i doubt anyWay).

[Georg Ebner]

SPÖ won on the district-level only cities (and 2 in Doskozil's fiefdom Burgenland):

[Georg Ebner]

%-change 2019-vs.-2024:
- FPÖ:

- ÖVP:

- SPÖ:

- NEOS:

- Greens:

[Georg Ebner]

VoteStreams (according to ForeSight (exSORA)), compared to
- AustrianParliament-election 2019:

- EuropeanParliament-election in June:

[Georg Ebner]

Given the corRelation of FPÖ-gains and SPÖ-losses in the old mining/industry-belt of Carinthia & UpperStyria i am not sure, i buy ForeSight's numbers of minimal streams between the two.

[Georg Ebner]

1st:

2nd:

Participation:

FPÖ:

ÖVP:

SPÖ:

NEOS:

Greens:

KPÖ:

BeerP.:

None (far-left):

LMP (antiVaxxers, antiWarSupport for Ukraine; led by an exLeader of TheGreens):

[Foggy]

The only place not coloured in red or a shade of blue (dark/turquoise) on either of the first two maps Georg just posted is a speck of green inside Vienna.

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 29, 2024 22:41:19 GMT Foggy said:

The only place not coloured in red or a shade of blue (dark/turquoise) on either of the first two maps Georg just posted is a speck of green inside Vienna.

Yes, TheGreens saved at least 2nd place in most of "BoBo-istan": II., V., VI., VII., VIII., IX.
But especially there suffering heavy losses (to SPÖ).

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 29, 2024 22:47:31 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Sept 29, 2024 22:41:19 GMT Foggy said:

The only place not coloured in red or a shade of blue (dark/turquoise) on either of the first two maps Georg just posted is a speck of green inside Vienna.

Yes, TheGreens saved at least 2nd place in most of "BoBo-istan": II., V., VI., VII., VIII., IX.
But especially there suffering heavy losses (to SPÖ).

Vienna 2019-2024:

- Greens:



- NEOS:



- SPÖ:



- KPÖ:



- Change->None (far-left):

[Georg Ebner]

% for the right bloc (FPÖVP+antiVaxxers) by district:


Only the districts of Vienna (darkred) or other cities (red) or subUrbs (orange) or the RhineMetro (yellow) plus 3 semirural ones (white) voted to the left of Austria as a whole (and even a substantial minority of these districts delivered FPÖVP a majority, just less than the austrianwide average of 56.67%).

[sanders]

It is called OsterREICH after all...

[stodge]

Kickl's people have come out with the usual "we got more votes and seats than anyone else, therefore we won the election, therefore we should form the next Government" schtick. It helps if you cultivate friendships and potential allies in an electoral and political system which virtually guarantees no one party will ever win a majority on its own and for all the bluster, the FPO fell a long way short of that goal.

The OVP suffer from being the Government which (along with the Greens) was decisively rejected by the electorate - the previous coalition of OVP and Greens had 97 seats in the Nationalrat, the two parties have 67.

The SPO have stood still - a damning indictment of their performance. Soon after Kurz fell, it seemed the SPO had a real chance of forming the next Government but in the end it all dribbled away and they ended up with about the same result as 2019 which was pretty bad for them.

NEOS have edged forward - while they have worked with both the SPO in Vienna and with the OVP and Greens in Salzburg, the latter experience (being thrown out of the Landtag in 2023) as well as that of the Greens in the Federal Election will hopefully show them the dangers of "junior partner syndrome"and they may be more reluctant to go into a formal arrangement. The Greens are left licking their wounds after a bad result.

So, what now? The key players look to be the SPO and to an extent NEOS - in essence Babler can jump with either Kickl or Nehammer - the former would represent a clear change from the previous Government and the SPO and FPO have governed together in the past (though a long time ago). Given the clear antipathy between Kickl and Nehammer, it might be the leverage for a new FPO-SPO coalition. Going in with Nehemmer keeps Kickl and the FPO out for now but longer term, as the main opposition, it seems likely the FPO will continue to grow.

As often with politics, it's short term expediency vs long-term strategy. If they go in with the FPO, it will probably give the OVP some breathing space to rebuild in opposition but for many in the SPO they'll be reaching for the long spoons if they think they are supping with the Devil.