Austrian federal elections

[Georg Ebner]

Here is a third version of test, made by prof. R.Heinisch (univ. Salzburg) for topPollster OGM:

ivote.at

My outCome:

In this 2nd attempt i passed over every question on money or imMigration and answered only on issues affecting Christian faith quite directly, but even then FPÖ ended ahead of ÖVP. How tempora mutantur: In the 1990ies J.Haider tried now and again to appeal to us Christians (and even to us few monArchists), but realiter the FPÖ was not really Christian&Conservative (the MissWokes will doubtlessly disagree entirely on this, of course). Today its base is far more conservative, albeit finally more nationalistic than conservative (a la defending feminists or homoSexuals against Islamists).

[Georg Ebner]

News on campaigning:

FPÖ cannot hide, instead must placard Kickl (in a way as soft&friendly as possible), despite being still one of the most unpopular politicians (strongly disliked by 60%; strongly liked, even adored (CoronaCrowd!) by 30%). And is surprisingly focussing on ecoNomy - obviously they want to bind entrepreneurs, who were not impressed by FPÖ as the "social home-party" and opted for BZÖ/Stronach/Kurz. Thus we have an ÖVP, which is copying&pasting FPÖ and a FPÖ doing the same now with the ÖVP... (2017 the same took place, but in the case of FPÖ more so in order to make a coalition with ÖVP easier.)

SPÖ is once again responsible for our entertainment (MARY THERESE: "Spectacles must be!"): First Babler tried to pose on posters as PM, then few days ago the SPÖ-mayor of Linz had to step down (he had made a personal friend chief of the opera; then it turned out, that the friend had received the examQuestions and the mayor began with a lot of noise a pseudoSearch for the unknown culprit; but as he had fired his friend, it came to light, that he himself had given him the information...) and now a paper of Mrs.Bures, noBody less than 2ndSpeaker & Dep.SPÖ-leader, criticized the party's platform as financially "unserious", written by external "experts" without much internal disCussion and partly too general (such as more money for reSearch), partly too detail-obsessed (like increasing the share of bioBeeKeepers to 10%...). Bures worked closely will all SPÖ-chiefs since Gusenbauer and before Babler, but is now commonly associated with the "Liesinger Partie" around Faymann (both are from Vienna's XXIIIrd district Liesing). Aggravating my suspicion, that after the election the left wing around Babler will join forces with the right wing around Doskozil (who works anyWay already together with exPM Kern) against the Viennese (Faymann, Bures, mayor Ludwig, RendiWagner).

[Georg Ebner]

3 weeks before the election it could be, that the course is turning from a "triel" into a duel:

This was from IFDD, which has ÖVP higher than other pollsters:

...but the same emerged also from SPÖ-close Lazarsfeld, which has ÖVP (& FPÖ) lower:

Being received as the main antiKickl-force is quasi a selfRunner and might even result in the first place (although few voters are polled to remain undecided). Would be hilarious, if ÖVP's risky strategy succeeded (as it has already in Tyrol, LowerAustria & Salzburg): For years having copied FPÖ, while at the same time campaigning as "the mid between extremes" (when being itself dedicated to an extreme opportunism...), while attacking then only Kickl (when the self-declared MARXism of SPÖ's Babler gets sidelined...), while proclaiming a duel for first place (when this is of no real importance...) and all this seems to work - what would once more prove, that "The world wants to be cheated on!"

[aargauer]

Aug 24, 2024 12:41:54 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Here is a third version of test, made by prof. R.Heinisch (univ. Salzburg) for topPollster OGM:

ivote.at

My outCome:

In this 2nd attempt i passed over every question on money or imMigration and answered only on issues affecting Christian faith quite directly, but even then FPÖ ended ahead of ÖVP. How tempora mutantur: In the 1990ies J.Haider tried now and again to appeal to us Christians (and even to us few monArchists), but realiter the FPÖ was not really Christian&Conservative (the MissWokes will doubtlessly disagree entirely on this, of course). Today its base is far more conservative, albeit finally more nationalistic than conservative (a la defending feminists or homoSexuals against Islamists).

I get NEOS, FPÖ and ÖVP in a near three way tie.

The rest are all negative.

[Pete Whitehead]

I skipped quite a lot of really boring questions so I'm surprised it ended up as clear cut as that.

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 8, 2024 14:44:58 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I skipped quite a lot of really boring questions so I'm surprised it ended up as clear cut as that.

Why are You surprised? "Clear cut" can be achieved already with 1 sole answer (as long as all parties are positioned).

[Georg Ebner]

Just 13 days before the election Austria has in recent days been flooded, especially western LowerAustria (a traditional strongHold of ÖVP and now also of FPÖ).
What makes the election naturally less predictable, but the winners should be the governing ones:

ÖVP's Chancellor Nehammer can - as an exSoldier & exMinister for Internal Affairs - fill out the position as strong stabilizer convincingly.

Whereas TheGreens - who had negotiated an election after summer in the hope of extreme weather - will be rewarded. (The date of elections before or after summer has apparently become worldwide an important issue.)

Thus it will be even likelier, that the ÖVP will remain ahead of FPÖ.

[Georg Ebner]

As forecast raining has stopped and it will remain that way for the next days (though the melting snow in the Alpes could result in new floods).
Will the present-day newsCycle be fast enough, that other issues will emerge? In the - postponed - remaining debates they will for sure have to discuss more than just the weather, but the left journalists will doubtlessly press on climateChange, assisted by TheGreens, but also SPÖ will in its deSperation attack Nehammer's former deFinition of Austria as a "car-land"&"motor-land" in order to halt its young&urban base from moving to TheGreens and perhaps even gain decisive centrists. Apparently many unDecideds are young women, who are anyWay very open to this kind of stuff (and whom ÖVP had hoped to attract with its antiKickl-campaign).

[Georg Ebner]

Some pollsters release their rawData, for example UniqueResearch:

...or infamous INSA (from Thuringia; founder exCDU and not hostile to AfD):

Unfortunately these are their numbers for last month, for September they published already their proJection:

As in Germany INSA generates many clicks by polling AfD&FPÖ higher than the others and shift to them immediately before the elections.

[Georg Ebner]

One pollster asked, how certain people are to elect their preferred party:

And then we have the exitPoll of ForeSight on the EP-election in June about the time of decisionMaking:

There are contrictory statements of pollsters, whether many are still undecided & likely to vote. According to some it's especially young woMen, so not FPÖ's coreClientele. Another one claims, that SPÖ has a - though very narrow - relative majority among these.
Summa summarum not unlikely, that ÖVP is already ahead. (Although the all-against-Kickl will likely have resulted in protest/antiEstablishment-voters moving from BeerP. - who are now unlikely to come in - and others to FPÖ.)

[Georg Ebner]

Despite being protected by the left journaille, SPÖ's Babler turned in the debates - as expected - out to be a delicacy for smart sadists: While winking nervously, he insulted ÖVP's chancellor Nehammer, then posed against FPÖ's Kickl as The Real AntiFa AntiKickl (yes, he needs Greens-voters for second place, but with wokeism he won't win the workingClass back). Peak so far: In a debateBreak he ran to a pollster, who is not at all unfriendly to the left, grabbed him on the shoulders, shook him and accused him to be part of The Big Conspiracy: In the pollster's rawData SPÖ would be in first place (what the pollster denied, later he showed his tables) and all pollsters - what includes naturally also Lazarsfeld, which is very close to SPÖ - would put them artificially low in their proJections... Now others from the left/woke bubble - among them journalists&politologists - expanded this conSpiracy to include also the "bourgeois" mediaOwners, who would fear Babler's brave fight for property/inHeritance-taxes... (Yes, on paper are almost all austrian newsPapers close to ÖVP, but in reality journalists firstly are protected from interFerence and secondly vote overwhelmingly left, cf. the leaked TradeUnion-results for Red&DarkRed&Green from 2014:
Including also "DiePresse", which is owned by the Church and usually labelled as "cons.", or "Kurier", which is owned by the farmerish RaiffeisenBank and thus indirectly by ÖVP.)

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 25, 2024 13:06:49 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Despite being protected by the left journaille, SPÖ's Babler turned in the debates - as expected - out to be a delicacy for smart sadists: While winking nervously, he insulted ÖVP's chancellor Nehammer, then posed against FPÖ's Kickl as The Real AntiFa AntiKickl (yes, he needs Greens-voters for second place, but with wokeism he won't win the workingClass back). Peak so far: In a debateBreak he ran to a pollster, who is not at all unfriendly to the left, grabbed him on the shoulders, shook him and accused him to be part of The Big Conspiracy: In the pollster's rawData SPÖ would be in first place (what the pollster denied, later he showed his tables) and all pollsters - what includes naturally also Lazarsfeld, which is very close to SPÖ - would put them artificially low in their proJections... Now others from the left/woke bubble - among them journalists&politologists - expanded this conSpiracy to include also the "bourgeois" mediaOwners, who would fear Babler's brave fight for property/inHeritance-taxes... (Yes, on paper are almost all austrian newsPapers close to ÖVP, but in reality journalists firstly are protected from interFerence and secondly vote overwhelmingly left, cf. the leaked TradeUnion-results for Red&DarkRed&Green from 2014: 
Including also "DiePresse", which is owned by the Church and usually labelled as "cons.", or "Kurier", which is owned by the farmerish RaiffeisenBank and thus indirectly by ÖVP.)

It get's even better: SPÖ's housePollster IFES released recently a poll conducted for the party. The only one with SPÖ ahead of ÖVP - but also only coming distinct second, so surely part of The Big ConSpiracy...

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 25, 2024 13:55:00 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Sept 25, 2024 13:06:49 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Despite being protected by the left journaille, SPÖ's Babler turned in the debates - as expected - out to be a delicacy for smart sadists: While winking nervously, he insulted ÖVP's chancellor Nehammer, then posed against FPÖ's Kickl as The Real AntiFa AntiKickl (yes, he needs Greens-voters for second place, but with wokeism he won't win the workingClass back). Peak so far: In a debateBreak he ran to a pollster, who is not at all unfriendly to the left, grabbed him on the shoulders, shook him and accused him to be part of The Big Conspiracy: In the pollster's rawData SPÖ would be in first place (what the pollster denied, later he showed his tables) and all pollsters - what includes naturally also Lazarsfeld, which is very close to SPÖ - would put them artificially low in their proJections... Now others from the left/woke bubble - among them journalists&politologists - expanded this conSpiracy to include also the "bourgeois" mediaOwners, who would fear Babler's brave fight for property/inHeritance-taxes... (Yes, on paper are almost all austrian newsPapers close to ÖVP, but in reality journalists firstly are protected from interFerence and secondly vote overwhelmingly left, cf. the leaked TradeUnion-results for Red&DarkRed&Green from 2014: 
Including also "DiePresse", which is owned by the Church and usually labelled as "cons.", or "Kurier", which is owned by the farmerish RaiffeisenBank and thus indirectly by ÖVP.)

It get's even better: SPÖ's housePollster IFES released recently a poll conducted for the party. The only one with SPÖ ahead of ÖVP - but also only coming distinct second, so surely part of The Big ConSpiracy...

Now Babler-supporters claim, that in IFES' poll SPÖ would be 1st by rawData - very flattering to pretend, that their party has a higher floor and lower ceiling than FPÖ...
Meanwhile the JuSos-Vorarlberg proclaimed, that people should vote for the KPÖ...
Presently SPÖ is really SPÖ: SpaßParteiÖsterreichs (FunParty A.)

[Georg Ebner]

Is anyBody interested in anyThing specific concerning austrian elections (or politics)?

[stodge]

We ought to be given the election is this Sunday.

The latest polls I've seen suggest the Freedom Party will top the poll with the People's Party well down and the SPD about where they were last time in second. The Greens down a lot, NEOS up a fraction.

The current coalition will obviously lose its majority but what are the alternatives? The three leading parties will get 150 or so seats between them with the Greens and NEOS sharing out the rest.

Forming a majority is going to need two or even three groups to work together - could the SPD, Greens and NEOS work together? Have relations between the FPO and OVP improved - they could probably get a majority between them but the OVP would have to accept Kickl as Chancellor?

[aargauer]

Sept 26, 2024 15:39:50 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Sept 25, 2024 13:55:00 GMT Georg Ebner said:

It get's even better: SPÖ's housePollster IFES released recently a poll conducted for the party. The only one with SPÖ ahead of ÖVP - but also only coming distinct second, so surely part of The Big ConSpiracy...

Now Babler-supporters claim, that in IFES' poll SPÖ would be 1st by rawData - very flattering to pretend, that their party has a higher floor and lower ceiling than FPÖ...
Meanwhile the JuSos-Vorarlberg proclaimed, that people should vote for the KPÖ...
Presently SPÖ is really SPÖ: SpaßParteiÖsterreichs (FunParty A.)

For those without must German JuSos are young socialists. Who are always certifiable. Our ones proposed confiscation of all workplace and private pensions to pay for a doubled state pension.

[Georg Ebner]

Sept 26, 2024 18:15:21 GMT stodge said:

We ought to be given the election is this Sunday.

The latest polls I've seen suggest the Freedom Party will top the poll with the People's Party well down and the SPD about where they were last time in second. The Greens down a lot, NEOS up a fraction.

The current coalition will obviously lose its majority but what are the alternatives? The three leading parties will get 150 or so seats between them with the Greens and NEOS sharing out the rest.

Forming a majority is going to need two or even three groups to work together - could the SPD, Greens and NEOS work together? Have relations between the FPO and OVP improved - they could probably get a majority between them but the OVP would have to accept Kickl as Chancellor?

Above i posted an overView of opinionPolls. And alluded, that ÖVP is in my opinion already ahead of FPÖ.
SPÖ&Greens&NEOS will certainly not achieve a majority (the left did so only under Kreisky in the 1970ies, 1945&1983&2006 were tossUps). The left (parties, certain pundits, most journalists) have claimed FPÖVP to be quasi a done deal, what means, that it will not happen: Nearly the whole ÖVP has ruled out any deal with Kickl. With him stepping down (if, roughly, just 2nd and below ~25%), ÖVP could choose between SPÖ(&NEOS) or FPÖ and the commonalities with the latter are indeed huge (80%?). Plus it would cause FPÖ to implode once more and ÖVP becoming - as under Schüssel&Kurz - the undisputed leader on the right. So the incumbent system would remain stable. But i suspect, that ÖVP's leaders (Chancellor Nehammer, LowerAustria's F.M. MiklLeitner) won't be smart enough for realizing this (and Kickl not stupid enough for not realizing the threat), thus it will probably be ÖVP&SPÖ(&NEOS).

[Georg Ebner]

Maps of the European election in June:

cinycmaps.com/index.php/international/austria-24-eu

[Georg Ebner]

EurpeanParliament-election 2024, 1st per
- parties:

- blocs:

NEOS could - with some right - be added to the left bloc. But even then, the latter was only in cities & few subUrbs ahead, cf. the districtMap:

Yellow = majority for the 3 right parties (FPÖ&ÖVP&DNA), but below the austrian average (52.6%).

[Georg Ebner]

The KPÖ is nowadays mainly a party of the cities:

What was once different: