Austrian federal elections

[rcronald]

May 22, 2024 4:26:08 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Pollster Lazarsfeld (dedicated to a SPÖer) revealed this opinionPoll:

...and also the rawData:

So FPÖ +4%, SPÖ +5%, ÖVP +6%, NEOS +5%, Greens +2%, Beer +-0%, others +1%.
ÖVP has presently the problem of being perceived as especially corrupt.

Kicked out Kurz, and lost the competence instead of the supposed corruption…

[Georg Ebner]

May 22, 2024 6:28:33 GMT rcronald said:

May 22, 2024 4:26:08 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Pollster Lazarsfeld (dedicated to a SPÖer) revealed this opinionPoll:

...and also the rawData:

So FPÖ +4%, SPÖ +5%, ÖVP +6%, NEOS +5%, Greens +2%, Beer +-0%, others +1%.
ÖVP has presently the problem of being perceived as especially corrupt.

Kicked out Kurz, and lost the competence instead of the supposed corruption…

Yes, the Kurz-successor is far away from appearing as a grand personality. (Although his strategy of keeping the ball flat avoided at least a crusade of the left journaille and snapElections.) In the chancellor-question all 3 are polled at unimpressive 20%. And the campaign will be surely on who of them is the most ordinary ("one of us, not of the elites").

[Georg Ebner]

SocialMedia:
ExPenditures:

InterActions:

FPÖ's Vilimsky - who is as an exSPÖer on the national&social wing of his party and even for a FPÖer very unpopular (having the reputation to prefer drinking alcohol with MEPs from Ataka and similar groups) - being some kind of enfant terrible ("the snake among rabbits"). But put those numbers into perSpective: This was not very different to EP 2019, when the FPÖ ended at only 16%.

[Georg Ebner]

If anyone is interested in austrian results: They were/are here and there already now counted and 1-2 hours after most city's pollingStations tend to close (17.00) everyThing will be done - but because of Italy they won't get released before 23.00.
Rumours at Twitter=X/... with precinctNumbers will take place, of course.

[Georg Ebner]

Historically FPÖ comes as a party for the first time first (its presidential candidate received 2016 in round I 35%):


But weaker than expected. ÖVP got its worst EP-result ever (-10%), but will be relieved nonetheless.
Quite impressive for SPÖ's Babler to end in the country of Red Vienna on third place.
Disappointing also for NEOS, which was led by a prominent exJournalist of the public broadCaster.

[Georg Ebner]

[Georg Ebner]

For comParison 1996 (our first EP-election), when it was also already a 3way (green is obviously the ÖVP):

[Georg Ebner]

EP-elections 2019-vs.-2024, trends (=district-% minus Austria-%; partyVotes measured at only valid votes, not all eligible votes):

[mrpastelito]

They're really small print, Georg ...

[Georg Ebner]

Jun 11, 2024 13:31:48 GMT mrpastelito said:

They're really small print, Georg ...

Sorry, some here have had critics on too many maps, thus i pressed them into 1. But can present them with joy also bigger ("UnGültig"=InValid): 

[Georg Ebner]

Jun 9, 2024 21:35:19 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Historically FPÖ comes as a party for the first time first (its presidential candidate received 2016 in round I 35%):
But weaker than expected. ÖVP got its worst EP-result ever (-10%), but will be relieved nonetheless.
Quite impressive for SPÖ's Babler to end in the country of Red Vienna on third place.
Disappointing also for NEOS, which was led by a prominent exJournalist of the public broadCaster.

I forgot, that it was historic also insofar the SPÖ came for the first time in third. In autumn the BeerParty will stand, what means, that the chances of its semiClown Babler to become Chancellor are low. Only 1/6 of all voters can imagine him in that position, even among SPÖ-voters it's no majority. (But then most thought this of Gusenbauer, too...)

[Georg Ebner]

By the way: I have mapped once all %-changes in EP-elections since we joined them 1996.
They would spend too much space here, but i have posted them all together at my Twitter=X-acCount (@georgebner3).

[Georg Ebner]

After 2 weeks of searching&storing data of the over 30 elections on the 9th i can now have a look at my own country, in concreto the exitPoll conducted by ForeSight (exSORA):

Date of decisionMaking:

According to them ÖVP gained even a little bit among the young, but lost heavily to FPÖ among the elderly:
EP 2019:

EP 2024:

Even more dramatic are FPÖ's inRoads among woMen, while stagnating among men:


And put together FPÖ gained mostly among elder ladies, but also - albeit less so - even among young ones:


Concerning the formal educationLevel the FPÖ increased suddenly among those with a high one (from very low numbers; an effect of Kickl being - contrary to the two others - intelligent?):


Education & sexes:

[Georg Ebner]

ComParison of electionResults for european vs. austrian parliaments:

In 1999 & 2019 the EP-elections took also place few months before that for the austrian parliament. 2019 the once "Europe"-party ÖVP performed for EP worse (but the IbizaVideo had not made full imPact yet). So the times, when ÖVP overperformed in EP-elections, seem to be over. Thus it might really be a close race between them and FPÖ presently.
(N.B: In rawData ÖVP was named before the EP-elec. by not more than 13%!)

[Georg Ebner]

Left"liberal" DerStandard provides a Wahlomat (with 12 or 30 questions):

www.derstandard.at/story/3000000227558/der-standard-wahlkompass-zur-nationalratswahl

My outCome:

67% ÖVP
66% FPÖ
59% DieGelben = TheYellows: small regional parties with differing ideoLogies; most prominent though is LBL: exFPÖers in Burgenland
59% MFG: right antiVaxxers
59% NEOS
57% Liste (Madeleine) Petrovic (LMP): left antiVaxxers; Petrovic was in the 1990ies the leader of TheGreens (left wing)
49% Keine = None (of the above): realiter "Wandel", a far-left sect trying antiEstablishment
48% DieGrünen = TheGreens
47% BierPartei = BeerP.: our M5S
47% SPÖ
44% Liste Gaza: nomen est omen
38% KPÖ

Surprising & weird - but that's Your fate, when You oppose both: imMigration & asSimilation, drugLegalization & policeTyranny, natureDestruction & wokeism...

[Georg Ebner]

Another try is this here:

wahlkabine.at/nationalratswahl-2024/wahlkabine/1

Here i suddenly got instead:
+160 FPÖ
+ 45 ÖVP
+ 39 LMP (List Madeleine Petrovic)
+ 27 NEOS
- 23 BeerP.
- 97 SPÖ
-126 KPÖ
-148 Greens
-187 Keine (None)

[mrpastelito]

Aug 23, 2024 1:03:40 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Another try is this here:

wahlkabine.at/nationalratswahl-2024/wahlkabine/1

Here i suddenly got instead:
+160 FPÖ
+ 45 ÖVP
+ 39 LMP (List Madeleine Petrovic)
+ 27 NEOS
- 23 BeerP.
- 97 SPÖ
-126 KPÖ
-148 Greens
-187 Keine (None)

+242 LMP
+221 FPOe
+40 OeVP
+16 KPOe
-18 SPOe
-36 NEOS
-45 KEINE
-83 Bier
-105 Green

It confirms my argument that the terms "right" and "left" have become completely meaningless politically.

[carlton43]

Aug 23, 2024 0:30:16 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Left"liberal" DerStandard provides a Wahlomat (with 12 or 30 questions):

www.derstandard.at/story/3000000227558/der-standard-wahlkompass-zur-nationalratswahl

My outCome:

67% ÖVP
66% FPÖ
59% DieGelben = TheYellows: small regional parties with differing ideoLogies; most prominent though is LBL: exFPÖers in Burgenland
59% MFG: right antiVaxxers
59% NEOS
57% Liste (Madeleine) Petrovic (LMP): left antiVaxxers; Petrovic was in the 1990ies the leader of TheGreens (left wing)
49% Keine = None (of the above): realiter "Wandel", a far-left sect trying antiEstablishment
48% DieGrünen = TheGreens
47% BierPartei = BeerP.: our M5S
47% SPÖ
44% Liste Gaza: nomen est omen
38% KPÖ

Surprising & weird - but that's Your fate, when You oppose both: imMigration & asSimilation, drugLegalization & policeTyranny, natureDestruction & wokeism...

Yes.  That is a raft of common sense that is now a niche minority position resulting in a weak fit to all your parties.

[carlton43]

Aug 23, 2024 10:01:19 GMT carlton43 said:

Aug 23, 2024 0:30:16 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Left"liberal" DerStandard provides a Wahlomat (with 12 or 30 questions):

www.derstandard.at/story/3000000227558/der-standard-wahlkompass-zur-nationalratswahl

My outCome:

67% ÖVP
66% FPÖ
59% DieGelben = TheYellows: small regional parties with differing ideoLogies; most prominent though is LBL: exFPÖers in Burgenland
59% MFG: right antiVaxxers
59% NEOS
57% Liste (Madeleine) Petrovic (LMP): left antiVaxxers; Petrovic was in the 1990ies the leader of TheGreens (left wing)
49% Keine = None (of the above): realiter "Wandel", a far-left sect trying antiEstablishment
48% DieGrünen = TheGreens
47% BierPartei = BeerP.: our M5S
47% SPÖ
44% Liste Gaza: nomen est omen
38% KPÖ

Surprising & weird - but that's Your fate, when You oppose both: imMigration & asSimilation, drugLegalization & policeTyranny, natureDestruction & wokeism...

Yes.  That is a raft of common sense that is now a niche minority position resulting in a weak fit to all your parties.  A few of us here know that feeling!

[Georg Ebner]

Aug 23, 2024 7:07:52 GMT mrpastelito said:

Aug 23, 2024 1:03:40 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Another try is this here:

wahlkabine.at/nationalratswahl-2024/wahlkabine/1

Here i suddenly got instead:
+160 FPÖ
+ 45 ÖVP
+ 39 LMP (List Madeleine Petrovic)
+ 27 NEOS
- 23 BeerP.
- 97 SPÖ
-126 KPÖ
-148 Greens
-187 Keine (None)

+242 LMP
+221 FPOe
+40 OeVP
+16 KPOe
-18 SPOe
-36 NEOS
-45 KEINE
-83 Bier
-105 Green

It confirms my argument that the terms "right" and "left" have become completely meaningless politically.

Funny: This test did, iirc, not even ask about the UkraineWar, nonetheless You ended at LMP, which has indeed "Putin-understanders" in its ranks...