Austrian federal elections

[Georg Ebner]

In my humble opinion SPÖ's new leader Babler appears very clumsy: By being inable to speak without dialect; demanding a 32hours-WorkingWeek, when we suffer already a shortage of WorkingForce; focussing on 100 km/h on motorWays aso. Yet, the chatting classes have proclaimed him to be "a new messiah" and "an enormous communications-talent".
How ever, P.Hajek polled him (from left to right: takes care, right futureThemes, trustworthy, assertive):

TrustWorthiness by partyVoters:

Fictive ChancellorElection:

Preferred coalition:

PartyPreference:


Oh - and we naturally have a new lapsus, once again from SPÖ, once again in Linz: This time its councillors voted mistakenly against a proPosal of their own government...

[Georg Ebner]

While ÖVP has done in recent months nearly everything to get the FPÖ->Kurz->FPÖ-voters back - by blocking Romania&Bulgaria from Schengen, by inviting Mrs.Meloni aso. -, quasi all ÖVP-ministers have proclaimed, that they would not serve for FPÖVP under a Chancellor Kickl. Some days ago P.M. Nehammer topped this and ruled out any coalition - not with FPÖ, but with Kickl. [What is not so credible any longer: In 3 regional elections ÖVP and FPÖ have made it a fight between them, what helped both: ÖVP gained antiFas, FPÖ disSatisfied voters and ended everyWhere on place 2 - just to coalition in 2 regions afterWards...] -
So the strategy, which was to be expected from ÖVP: Look, we are the normals, the broad mid, contrary to left-radical Babler (SPÖ) and right-radical Kickl (FPÖ). Though, when ÖVP was campaigning 1994 on "The power of the Mid" it didn't end well (-4.4%, in those days quite a lot). Additionally SPÖ will have an interEst to turn it into a duel SPÖ vs. FPÖ, Babler vs. Kickl to win big among the 2/3 opposing Kickl.

BackGround: Pollsters found out, that disSatisfaction with concrete demoCracy is no longer limited to the prekariat.
Above: Importance to live in a democratic country; mid: How democratically is A. governed?; bottom: satisFaction with political system.

Per party:

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jun 20, 2023 22:01:55 GMT Georg Ebner said:

In my humble opinion SPÖ's new leader Babler appears very clumsy: By being inable to speak without dialect; ..

Is this a case of lurching into dialect, or just poor Hochdeutsch?

[Pete Whitehead]

Jun 20, 2023 22:01:55 GMT Georg Ebner said:

In my humble opinion SPÖ's new leader Babler appears very clumsy: By being inable to speak without dialect;

Similar to our Angela Rayner
He has an apt name though..

[Georg Ebner]

Jul 30, 2023 22:59:58 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Jun 20, 2023 22:01:55 GMT Georg Ebner said:

In my humble opinion SPÖ's new leader Babler appears very clumsy: By being inable to speak without dialect; ..

Is this a case of lurching into dialect, or just poor Hochdeutsch?

No, just "UmgangsSprache", so inAbiliy to speak HighGerman; certainly not a dialect, which can after all be spoken by intelligent & erudite people. (I know cases of elder conservatives from Bavaria, who spoke Latin fluently, even Greek - but lectured in dialect and not in "LUTHER's German"...)

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jul 31, 2023 14:57:41 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Jul 30, 2023 22:59:58 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Is this a case of lurching into dialect, or just poor Hochdeutsch?

No, just "UmgangsSprache", so inAbiliy to speak HighGerman; certainly not a dialect, which can after all be spoken by intelligent & erudite people. (I know cases of elder conservatives from Bavaria, who spoke Latin fluently, even Greek - but lectured in dialect and not in "LUTHER's German"...)

Oh dear. There's really no reason to be using Umgangssprache. Point taken.

[Georg Ebner]

The WorkerChamber (including all employees, so most of austrian population) had elections in the last months. Finally Styria was counted today, but several regions have not released the voteNumbers, thus i cannot provide an austrian-wide summary.
Even for 2019 Vorarlberg is unknown (but it's a smaller Land):

[Georg Ebner]

Concerning the elections for the Chamber of Workers(&Employees) i received today after weeks of urging&waiting the last few missing numbers.
Votes:


Vote-%:


Results since 1949:
Austria as a whole:

Vienna:


Trends (=%-deViations from austrian average):

If anyone is interested, i can post those of the other 8 regions.

[mrpastelito]

Is there any historical reason for the peculiar patterns in western Austria, Georg?

[johnloony]

I seem to remember that the westernmost bit of Austria wanted to join Switzerland a while ago
I can’t remember why or how they didn’t
(“a while” being several decades ago)

[johng]

May 14, 2024 18:08:49 GMT johnloony said:

I seem to remember that the westernmost bit of Austria wanted to join Switzerland a while ago
I can’t remember why or how they didn’t
(“a while” being several decades ago)

I went on a walking holiday in the Vorarlberg in 2021 I believe. Stunningly beutiful part of the world.

I was told their German sounds foreign to other Austrians - basically Swiss. It's also very cut-off from the rest of the country.

[Devil Wincarnate]

May 14, 2024 18:13:34 GMT johng said:

May 14, 2024 18:08:49 GMT johnloony said:

I seem to remember that the westernmost bit of Austria wanted to join Switzerland a while ago
I can’t remember why or how they didn’t
(“a while” being several decades ago)

I went on a walking holiday in the Vorarlberg in 2021 I believe. Stunningly beutiful part of the world.

I was told their German sounds foreign to other Austrians - basically Swiss. It's also very cut-off from the rest of the country.

It does indeed. You can hardly tell the difference. The Bregenzerwald in particular is fantastic.

[Georg Ebner]

May 14, 2024 18:08:49 GMT johnloony said:

I seem to remember that the westernmost bit of Austria wanted to join Switzerland a while ago
I can’t remember why or how they didn’t
(“a while” being several decades ago)

Yes, Vorarlberg opted 1919 for joining SwitzerLand:

[aargauer]

May 14, 2024 19:01:29 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

May 14, 2024 18:13:34 GMT johng said:

I went on a walking holiday in the Vorarlberg in 2021 I believe. Stunningly beutiful part of the world.

I was told their German sounds foreign to other Austrians - basically Swiss. It's also very cut-off from the rest of the country.

It does indeed. You can hardly tell the difference. The Bregenzerwald in particular is fantastic.

I was there at the weekend. Climbed the Pfänder hill while the kids and wife took the cable car.

[Georg Ebner]

May 14, 2024 17:13:40 GMT mrpastelito said:

Is there any historical reason for the peculiar patterns in western Austria, Georg?

Tyrol was initially despite all catholicism "normal" with <factory>workers being red and the whiteCollars black/blue/brown, cf. 1921&1926 (n.b. without those in the trafficBranche):

Which was continued after WWII. But in the 1970ies (per se the red era here in MiddleEurope) the federal SPÖ-government under Kreisky lost regularly regional elections and among them the WorkersChambers - albeit not the TradeUnions - of Tyrol & Vorarlberg (what was really painful for them): 



Then in power the ÖVP-chiefs have managed to establish a certain image as belligerent (not least against their own party's leaderships) and as a result their overPerFormance in Tyrol&Vbg. compared to the "normal" 7 regions has become extremer and extremer:


Really fascinating is Vorarlberg, though:





With its textileIndustry it was among the monArchy's 3 main industrial areas (together with NorthCzechia/Moravia & Vienna/SE-LowerA.), but the population was quite immune to socialDemoCracy (which was largely limited to the many imMigrants from restAustria/Italy)! What is roughly the same as in the other parts of the Alemannic area: In german CH socialists&communists were also 10-20% too low for the high industrialization there, detto BaWü or Alsace. A fairly egalitarian society of small people, where every son inherited and owned a little piece of land, resulting during the XIXth in a remarkable rural radicalism (=leftLiberalism), but at the same time in a low lust for anyThing more radical.

[aargauer]

Austrian's Lust has become more radical since

[Georg Ebner]

May 14, 2024 19:56:24 GMT aargauer said:

Austrian's Lust has become more radical since

But Vorarlberg - which had in many ways been already during the monArchy a tacit rePublic, where emperor&nobility were far away - turned in the XXth into the most anti-SPÖ&KPÖ area of Austria. Its east (BregenzerWald, Montafon) being outright conservative, the urban RhineValley rightliberal (GermanNat./FPÖ relatively strong for decades). Yet, with the cultureCatches of the XIXth having come back Vorarlberg has been trending to the left - it is now the second-most left region after Vienna. The earlier posted electionResults of the WorkersChamber prove this, but also the trends in federal elections:

[Georg Ebner]

May 14, 2024 20:10:41 GMT Georg Ebner said:

May 14, 2024 19:56:24 GMT aargauer said:

Austrian's Lust has become more radical since

But Vorarlberg ... turned in the XXth into the most anti-SPÖ&KPÖ area of Austria. 

This culminated in the early 1960ies in the Altach-accident: A ship for the lake BodenSee was initially intended to be named "Vorarlberg", but the SPÖ-led trafficMinistry decreed to name it after SPÖ-exChancellor Karl Renner. What would have been accepted without complaining in despotic eastAustria, ended in a public outRage: The people stormed and interrupted the celebrities, the SPÖ-guests had to be escorted to the train back to Vienna aso.. Needless to say, that ÖVP&FPÖ achieved then in 1966 a superb result (21% above Austria).

[Georg Ebner]

The opinionPolls for the parliamentary election on September 29th have not changed - for over 1 year FPÖ has been clearly ahead and SPÖ usually second:

What means, that the situation has changed drastically, as the others have little time left to take on FPÖ and its leader Kickl. In few weeks will be the EP-elections, where - contrary to so far - the FPÖ-voters are polled to be eager to turn out. Then will be its deBriefings; then the summerVacations, when most don't want to be disturbed with political quarrels. Afterwards few weeks for campaigning.
Kickl has used the same method as SPÖ's exLeader RendiWagner: to appear as little as possible in public, mirroring the fact, that the opPosition is even more unpopular than the government of ÖVP&Greens (and Kickl is very polarizing: while being adored by "his" ~30%, he is strongly rejected by ~2/3). What could mean, that the support for FPÖ will finally evaporate (as happened with RendiWagner), but on the other hand the FPÖ has obviously a potential of 27-35%, who have little other choices.
The ÖVP has tried desperately to win from FPÖ these back by copying&pasting a lot of FPÖ-proPosals (with tacit allowance of TheGreens & our masters in Brussels they have gone fairly far, but to no avail so far), while attacking Kickl as "extreme", "irresponsible" and even setting up a parliamentary inQuiry on scandals of SPÖ&FPÖ (realiter only on Kickl). Nearly all ÖVP-ministers and regional PMs ruled out any coalition with the "Kickl-FPÖ". So, unless FPÖ will at the end disappoint and Kickl step down, it is already clear, that we will have SPÖVP (ÖVP&SPÖ being less, SPÖ&Greens&NEOS&Beer(&KPÖ) far less likely) and that without the possibility to blackmail the SPÖ with FPÖ the ÖVP won't win the coalitionNegotiations any longer. Whether the chancellor will be an unimpressive figure like ÖVP's Nehammer or SPÖ's semiClown Babler won't be incredibly important.
With ÖVP focussing to win back those on the right, it opened place on its left flank and indeed NEOS have begun to leave the overcrowded (mid)left spectrum by turning more to economical issues as at their beginning 10 years ago. (The claim, that they had to move to the left "because in the ÖVP are no business-liberals left to be gained" was allWays laughable - 2020 they received in the election for the CommerceChamber only in the IT-sector double digits...) Thus in recent weeks most polls detected a narrow majority for the (mid)left parties - but NEOS&KPÖ would be hard to sell, Beer&KPÖ crossing both the 4%-threshold is unlikely and Austria has had a left seatMajority only in the 1970ies (under Kreisky, who was n.b. on the right fringe of his SPÖ).
From SPÖ's Babler (the mayor...) are even his left"liberal" supporters, who praised him one year ago as "a communicative genius unheard since Kreisky" (roughly the most hilarious statement i have ever heard), disillusioned now. He has to handle with obJections on everyThing he does/advocates from the usual suspects. (Apart from Carinthia perhaps amusingly all 9 regional SPÖ-leaders are presently on the right wing of the party...)

[Georg Ebner]

Pollster Lazarsfeld (dedicated to a SPÖer) revealed this opinionPoll:

...and also the rawData:

So FPÖ +4%, SPÖ +5%, ÖVP +6%, NEOS +5%, Greens +2%, Beer +-0%, others +1%.
ÖVP has presently the problem of being perceived as especially corrupt.