Austrian federal elections

[rcronald]

Kurz should have stayed like Bibi in Israel tbh, especially as the accusations against him seem flat out false rather then non-criminal like Bibi’s (Bibi is not an ethical man to say the least, but he didn’t do anything illegal imo).

[greenhert]

Jul 25, 2022 18:16:11 GMT finsobruce said:

Jul 25, 2022 16:17:30 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Don't need it.
The amusing aspect is, that she has been quite invisible in recent months - but that obviously helps!

It often does with a candidate.

We have just been talking about George Howarth and I seem to remember that he did his back in during the Knowsley by-election and wasn't available for a large part of the campaign.

Knowsley North by-election, you mean. 

[Georg Ebner]

Aug 16, 2022 7:45:32 GMT rcronald said:

Kurz should have stayed like Bibi in Israel tbh, especially as the accusations against him seem flat out false rather then non-criminal like Bibi’s (Bibi is not an ethical man to say the least, but he didn’t do anything illegal imo).

It cannot be ruled out, that the girlFriend of Kurz ordered with taxPayer's money opinionPolls, which were favourable for him. Yet, despite being de iure illegal, it is de facto normal in a country with huge netWork-parties like SPÖ & ÖVP - the incriminated pollster said, that she had learned those techniques from SPÖ-people (what has not had any conSequences for the latter, of course). And the populace is not even aware of that background. The left jurists&journalists stirred them simply up by leaking from his confiscated smartPhones/computers, that Kurz called his preDecessor 1 time "an ass" and the like. What was so successful, that most did not want him to come back even, if acquitted of all accusations (!):

So his position was not really tenable any longer.
Losing such a capable young politician under such circumStances is a real shame and has damaged my country, not only in diplomacy. But who cares? Certainly not the small voles.

[rcronald]

Aug 16, 2022 12:47:04 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Aug 16, 2022 7:45:32 GMT rcronald said:

Kurz should have stayed like Bibi in Israel tbh, especially as the accusations against him seem flat out false rather then non-criminal like Bibi’s (Bibi is not an ethical man to say the least, but he didn’t do anything illegal imo).

It cannot be ruled out, that the girlFriend of Kurz ordered with taxPayer's money opinionPolls, which were favourable for him. Yet, despite being de iure illegal, it is de facto normal in a country with huge netWork-parties like SPÖ & ÖVP - the incriminated pollster said, that she had learned those techniques from SPÖ-people (what has not had any conSequences for the latter, of course). And the populace is not even aware of that background. The left jurists&journalists stirred them simply up by leaking from his confiscated smartPhones/computers, that Kurz called his preDecessor 1 time "an ass" and the like. What was so successful, that most did not want him to come back even, if acquitted of all accusations (!):

So his position was not really tenable any longer.
Losing such a capable young politician under such circumStances is a real shame and has damaged my country, not only in diplomacy. But who cares? Certainly not the small voles.

utterly depressing, Israelis (even left wingers and people who think Bibi is a criminal) have 0 faith in most institutions and view them as overtly left wing so the corruption saga barely hurt him (however, his wife and son are pretty much universally hated and he had to appease the right flank into loyalty because of the saga which forced him to take pretty divisive positions).

[Georg Ebner]

Few opinionPolls have already been able to include Wallentin, the lawyer writing for the tabloid "Krone". He has caused no earthQuake so far, nonetheless he could damage FPÖ's Rosenkranz (and indirectly partyLeader Kickl) enough:

The inCumbent refuses to participate in any TeleVision-debate, thus huge shifts are unlikely to happen.

[Georg Ebner]

The PaulLazarsfeld-Society, which is very close to the SPÖ, released these opinionPolls:
President:

RawData:

Chancellor:

RawData:

Parliament:

RawData:

Change in lifeQuality compared to last year:

"Are You for the next 12 months rather optimistic or pessimistic?":

[Georg Ebner]

4 weeks before the pres.elec. a spectacular - v.d.Bellen below 50% - opinionPoll, only onLine (once again from Market for the SPÖ-close P.Lazarsfeld-society):

[Georg Ebner]

Tomorrow the presidential election will take place.

2 outSider-opinionPollsters (a SPÖ-society & INSA) claimed inCumbent v.d.Bellen (TheGreens) to end below 50%, all others have him at 55%-60%.
The turnOut will probably be decisive. The weather is projected to be be good, i.e. bad for him.

I must still digest the last weekEnd (Latvia, Zug/CH, BurgenLand/A, Brazil, Bulgaria, Peru), but has anyone any questions/interests?

[Georg Ebner]

The presidential election ended without many surprises - v.d.Bellen 56%, Rosenkranz/FPÖ 18%, the far-left comedian Wlazny/BeerParty and Wallentin (a columnist in the tabloid "Krone" appealing to "common sense" [populism & economical liberalism]) disappointed both with around 8%. Grosz (FPÖ->BZÖ->Ind.) 6%, Brunner (antiVaccination MFG) 2% like a green weirdo.

Maps, opinionPoll & (soon) voteStreams by the SORA-institute:

orf.at/wahl/bp22/ergebnisse

[Georg Ebner]

Unusual map for an unusual election - v.d.Bellen in Vienna:

Unprecedented is, that he performed not only strongly in TheGreen's BoBostan around the historical City, but also in ÖVP's strongHolds (City & NW&SW-corners). This exMaoist achieved quasi an antiProletarian- (sive antiFPÖ-) coalition; cf. the 3 candidates from the wider FPÖ-camp, who did all best in the proletarian "SouthEast-tangent":
Rosenkranz (FPÖ):

Wallentin (Ind.):

Grosz (Ind.; exFPÖ&BZÖ):

[Georg Ebner]

Presidential elections 2016 vs. 2022, %-changes.
Participation:

Right (2016, round I: Hofer [FPÖ]; 2022: Rosenkranz [FPÖ] + Wallentin + Grosz + Brunner [MFG]):

v.d.Bellen, 2022 compared to 2016, first runOff:

v.d.Bellen, 2022 compared to 2016, second runOff:

[Georg Ebner]

In the presidential election the FPÖ tried to take over those, who had opted for Kurz with a conservative candidate (elder lawyer, albeit clearly not from the kath.&kons., but from the national-liberal camp). In the region of Salzburg he did not perform better in the strongHolds of ÖVP (in parliamentary election 2019):

...and also not of SPÖ:

...unsuprisingly there is a negative corRelation with NEOS:

In the generally less urban UpperAustria he did better with ÖVP (but on the other hand worse with SPÖ):

Surely in UpperAustria (and probably quite everywhere else) the inCumbent was preferred by the elderly and the wealthy:

[Georg Ebner]

The mayoral runOffs in BurgenLand are over and SPÖ managed to strengthen its grip:


How many people will be ruled by a mayor of which party?:

After terrible days for the ÖVP around the causa Kurz their branch in BurgenL. lost 10/13 runOffs - but nevertheless increased their % compared to the first round even more than SPÖ:

[Georg Ebner]

Average of OpinionPolls since the last election:

Realiter the people are exhausted and unimpressed by all parties (despite/because the ÖVP&Greens-coalition spending/wasting terribly much money - within the EU the second-highest amount per capita after Luxembourg), making the present FPÖ-surge also not too solid (just like SPÖ's one few months ago).

[Georg Ebner]

KPÖ, which was before the Salzburg-election federally absolutely absent (not even polled), has now suddenly jumped to 5% at MarketInstitute and 7% at OGM (usually our best pollster):

Before Salzburg the BeerParty (our version of M5S - partly "satirical", partly leftextreme/libertinistic) has been at 5% or not (depending on, whether the pollsters had mentioned them as an option).

[Georg Ebner]

After the LandTag-elections we will regularily not have any major election before the one for the EP in June 2024 and for the federal parliament in autumn. (Presently ÖVP is trying to win back the voters, who have gone from Kurz to FPÖ, by declaring e.g. A. an "AutoLand" [=CarLand], what isn't helpful for the coalition with TheGreens; but the latter have reacted rather softly - after all the proSpect of FPÖ at 30% cannot excite them and neither coalitionPartner can be really interested in early elections.)
Just the students are voting until tomorrow (ThursDay). Since 1945
- % (while LiF/NEOS were/are clearly leftlib., it's not absolutely correct to subsume their studentsAssoc. ["JuNos"] to the left: they were founded partly by german students close to the rightliberal FDP and e.g. support tuitionFees):

- leaders of the executive:

Of course it wasn't the case, that 70-90% of postWar-students were "(austro)fascists" - on the contrary. The ÖVP-camp tried to hold together also (left)liberal Catholics and attract bourgeois students disliking the FPÖ; the FPÖ-camp all kinds of bourgeois anti/non-Cath.&Cons.. What has been important to understand the mood in the parties' elites.

[Georg Ebner]

The students, who should once become my country's technical elite, have not even been able to count the votes properly. Yet, the big universities are done and summa summarum not much has changed:

Results for the federal chamber in the different institutes, grouped by typ (top: public univ.s; then public "FachHochschulen" [non-univ. technics]; pedagogical institutes [teachers], public, catholic; bottom: private univ.s):

[Georg Ebner]

StudentsParliament, federal chamber:

I hope, that it is visible.
The SPÖstudents came first and received the highest % ever.
Amusing, how in Linz, which was established 60 years ago as a SPÖ-univ. (=no TheoLogy&Humanities, lots of Technics&SocialSciences), ÖVP is now comparatively strong; whereas my Salzburg, which belonged 1962 to ÖVP, is a GreensFortress (despite strong losses to SPÖ this time)...

[Georg Ebner]

OGM - usually our best pollster - asked with both SPÖ-candidates (n=~1.200; selected from the institute's 30.000-onLine-Panel):

So SPÖ would even get more % with Babler! - but at cost of the other left parties, while FPÖVP would hold their majority. With Doskozil only SPÖVP plus NEOS or Greens would be viable.

[Georg Ebner]

May 12, 2023 18:30:56 GMT Georg Ebner said:

The students, who should once become my country's technical elite, have not even been able to count the votes properly. 

It turns out, that my country's technical elite of tomorrow also messed up an EXCEL-table (of univ. Vienna). The mistake was finally found - after all the counting of 60.000 votes took ~1 week - and corrected, but a full reCount is demanded now by the communists - who are surely best suited to persecute wrong counting...

And let us not forget the presidential election 2016, which had to be repeated...

Perhaps i should throw all my EXCEL-tables of "precise" austrian electionResults into the dustBin...

Reassures the old bonMot of the austrian as the only german(speaker), for whom 2x2 can also be 3 or 5... Or the word (of v.HOFMANNSTHAL?), that for a Prussian the situation is allWays "serious, but not hopeless"; whereas for an austrian it is allWays hopeless, but not serious... Or v.ANDRIAN (a less well-known poet) meaning, a spectacle would count for us more than a life...