Austrian federal elections

[Georg Ebner]

...and the first OpinionPoll is out:

www.krone.at/2529452

This pollster - a couple of PsychoTherapists... - is quite new and has had problematic numbers in the past, but it's surely not unlikely, that they are correct this time.

[Georg Ebner]

Several OpinionPolls are out and show an identical picture:

Meanwhile OGM - one of the best pollsters - was thrown out of an association, because they use no TelePhon any longer.

[Georg Ebner]

And it has happened: UniqueResearch came out with this ProJection:

...based on these RawNumbers:

The first time since 2014 they have SPÖ on place 1:

[Georg Ebner]

OGM polled also, that SPÖ has passed ÖVP as strongest party:

www.ogm.at/2021/11/28/ogm-kurier-wahlumfrage-november-2021/

[Georg Ebner]

The first OpinionPoll with Nehammer is out (warning: IFDD is very new and conducted it fully OnLine with not more than 550 respondents):

"Will Nehammer be a good chancellor?":

Few days ago a TeleVision-channel (Puls24, generally to the left of public BroadCaster ORF) published this survey among 7.800 of its viewers (so open to fraud and unweighted):

The same question on Kurz:

"Do You expect 2022 SnapElections?":

[Georg Ebner]

Not sure, every/any-one still trusts austrian OpinionPolls (i have never), but we have 2 more with Nehammer as PM:

www.derstandard.at/story/2000131824645/spoe-in-umfrage-klar-vor-oevp-und-fpoe-doch-neuwahl

www.profil.at/oesterreich/oevp-stabilisiert-gleichauf-mit-spoe-mfg-bundesweit-bei-6/401836309

[Georg Ebner]

As said in the post before, i am not sure, every/any-one wants any longer to hear anything of austrian OpinionPolls, but few have come out:

... and "finally" Peter Hajek:

Preferred chancellor:


As expected, Nehammer's ÖVP has gained traction at cost of FPÖ (whereas MidLeft is still ahead), what is indeed also claimed by Market & P.Hajek.

[Georg Ebner]

After all other pollsters had detected a clear SPÖ-lead, OGM - whose TrackRecord has not been too bad in
NationalRat-elections:

...and LandTag-elections:

...came out with this:

BlackGreen profiting from the UkraineConflict (and probably, i personally assume, also from the unimpressive personality of Mrs. RendiWagner).

[Georg Ebner]

"Is Nehammer fit for chancellorship?":
All:

ÖVP-voters alone:

While voters of ÖVP's coalitionPartner TheGreens are also rather gracious to Nehammer, those of FPÖ are no longer (contrary to Kurz, who continued to appeal to them even after the collapse of ÖVP&FPÖ 2019):

[Georg Ebner]

In OpinionPolls ÖVP has stabilized itself, but on a low level; whereas SPÖ has been rising steadily:


As preferred PM Nehammer is still ahead, but not by a lot:

The popularity of most ministers (Köstinger&Schramböck are already gone) is low:

The perceived competence on fighting inFlation plays a role in all of this:

And also, that the SocialDemocrats of Austria took the Australian way, i.e. hiding their frontRunner. PressEntries in May:

As a "champagne-socialist" (high-ranking CivilServant, husband diplomat) Mrs.RendiWagner is not very convincing at playing the deep-red Socialist fighting for welFare.

[Georg Ebner]

The AnSchluß (=Austria's abSorbtion as a German province) has happened - INSA has expanded and will deliver OpinionPolls for www.exxpress.at, a news"paper" run by the journalist, whom Strache wanted to make the ChiefEditor of Austria's main tabloid "Krone", so close to FPÖ and right ÖVP.
Here is their first poll - as You see, "only" their RawNumbers:

Preferred Chancellor (not impressive for Nehammer, but also not for the others with 1/3 saying "none" and 10% giving no answer):

Popularity (Economy&Labour-minister Kocher is an Ind. appointed by the ÖVP):

[Georg Ebner]

Last time pollster OGM was an outLier by not detecting a SPÖ-lead, this time they are in tune with the others:

According to them ÖVP is beginning to lose voters not only to FPÖ&NEOS, but even to SPÖ (especially urbanites&pensionists).