Austrian federal elections

[Georg Ebner]

...and the first OpinionPoll is out:

www.krone.at/2529452

This pollster - a couple of PsychoTherapists... - is quite new and has had problematic numbers in the past, but it's surely not unlikely, that they are correct this time.

[Georg Ebner]

Several OpinionPolls are out and show an identical picture:

Meanwhile OGM - one of the best pollsters - was thrown out of an association, because they use no TelePhon any longer.

[Georg Ebner]

And it has happened: UniqueResearch came out with this ProJection:

...based on these RawNumbers:

The first time since 2014 they have SPÖ on place 1:

[Georg Ebner]

OGM polled also, that SPÖ has passed ÖVP as strongest party:

www.ogm.at/2021/11/28/ogm-kurier-wahlumfrage-november-2021/

[Georg Ebner]

The first OpinionPoll with Nehammer is out (warning: IFDD is very new and conducted it fully OnLine with not more than 550 respondents):

"Will Nehammer be a good chancellor?":

Few days ago a TeleVision-channel (Puls24, generally to the left of public BroadCaster ORF) published this survey among 7.800 of its viewers (so open to fraud and unweighted):

The same question on Kurz:

"Do You expect 2022 SnapElections?":

[Georg Ebner]

Not sure, every/any-one still trusts austrian OpinionPolls (i have never), but we have 2 more with Nehammer as PM:

www.derstandard.at/story/2000131824645/spoe-in-umfrage-klar-vor-oevp-und-fpoe-doch-neuwahl

www.profil.at/oesterreich/oevp-stabilisiert-gleichauf-mit-spoe-mfg-bundesweit-bei-6/401836309

[Georg Ebner]

As said in the post before, i am not sure, every/any-one wants any longer to hear anything of austrian OpinionPolls, but few have come out:

... and "finally" Peter Hajek:

Preferred chancellor:


As expected, Nehammer's ÖVP has gained traction at cost of FPÖ (whereas MidLeft is still ahead), what is indeed also claimed by Market & P.Hajek.

[Georg Ebner]

After all other pollsters had detected a clear SPÖ-lead, OGM - whose TrackRecord has not been too bad in
NationalRat-elections:

...and LandTag-elections:

...came out with this:

BlackGreen profiting from the UkraineConflict (and probably, i personally assume, also from the unimpressive personality of Mrs. RendiWagner).

[Georg Ebner]

"Is Nehammer fit for chancellorship?":
All:

ÖVP-voters alone:

While voters of ÖVP's coalitionPartner TheGreens are also rather gracious to Nehammer, those of FPÖ are no longer (contrary to Kurz, who continued to appeal to them even after the collapse of ÖVP&FPÖ 2019):

[Georg Ebner]

In OpinionPolls ÖVP has stabilized itself, but on a low level; whereas SPÖ has been rising steadily:


As preferred PM Nehammer is still ahead, but not by a lot:

The popularity of most ministers (Köstinger&Schramböck are already gone) is low:

The perceived competence on fighting inFlation plays a role in all of this:

And also, that the SocialDemocrats of Austria took the Australian way, i.e. hiding their frontRunner. PressEntries in May:

As a "champagne-socialist" (high-ranking CivilServant, husband diplomat) Mrs.RendiWagner is not very convincing at playing the deep-red Socialist fighting for welFare.

[Georg Ebner]

The AnSchluß (=Austria's abSorbtion as a German province) has happened - INSA has expanded and will deliver OpinionPolls for www.exxpress.at, a news"paper" run by the journalist, whom Strache wanted to make the ChiefEditor of Austria's main tabloid "Krone", so close to FPÖ and right ÖVP.
Here is their first poll - as You see, "only" their RawNumbers:

Preferred Chancellor (not impressive for Nehammer, but also not for the others with 1/3 saying "none" and 10% giving no answer):

Popularity (Economy&Labour-minister Kocher is an Ind. appointed by the ÖVP):

[Georg Ebner]

Last time pollster OGM was an outLier by not detecting a SPÖ-lead, this time they are in tune with the others:

According to them ÖVP is beginning to lose voters not only to FPÖ&NEOS, but even to SPÖ (especially urbanites&pensionists).

[Georg Ebner]

SatisFaction with government according to pollster P.Hajek:

[Georg Ebner]

For the presidential election in 3 months FPÖ's Kickl nominated surprisingly not a woMan from UpperA., but Walter Rosenkranz:

He is from LowerA. and after having been for years in FPÖ's inner circle he is presently 1 of 3 public adVocates citizens can call for legal asSistance against the bad bureauCracy. Obviously an attempt - just as in 2010 with Barbara Rosenkranz (also from LowerA., also with no ÖVP-candidate standing against the left-wing inCumbent) - to attract the conservatives, who have elected some time Kurz. Problems will be his membership in a german-national studentsAssociation ("schlagende Burschenschaft") - the first one, which excluded in the outgoing XIXth Jews - and, that he lent once up to 200.000€ from the party. (He has given it back, but it's nevertheless irritating to take taxPayers' money for private use.)

3 others are collecting signatures, 2 from the right rand:
- Grosz (exFPÖ, then exBZÖ), who has some following in social media
- the leader of MFG (antiVacc.obLigation), who tries to keep his 1-issueParty alive by urging for more neutrality
And finally the leader of the satirical BeerParty, who has also some following (at least virtually).

[Georg Ebner]

For the presidential election is the first opinionPoll since FPÖ announced its surprising candidate out, conducted even by a good pollster - OGM:

Unsurprising numbers. Their comment:

The inCumbent v.d.Bellen taking all TheGreens-voters, ~1/2 of ÖVP, 3/4 of SPÖ, 2/3 of NEOS.
The 37% FPÖ's Hoffer received in the first round of 2016 (after the massImMigration 2015) is out of reach for Rosenkranz, but he could under good circumStances get more than 21%.
The TurnOut would - according to OGM - be "all-decisive" (well, certainly not on, who will win).
The challengers will - that's for sure - campaign mainly vs. the BlackGreen-coalition (on inFlation, energy&neutrality).

[Georg Ebner]

With all the bad mood in the population - president v.d.Bellen (TheGreens) has, for example, been booed on 3 occasions in the recent days - all ministers are now under water:

Especially PM Nehammer, who has even fallen behind Mrs.RendiWagner in a fictive ChancellorElec.:

Caute: Lazarsfeld is perceived as not far away from SPÖ, but their numbers do not really differ from the others:

[finsobruce]

Jul 25, 2022 15:53:48 GMT Georg Ebner said:

With all the bad mood in the population - president v.d.Bellen (TheGreens) has, for example, been booed on 3 occasions in the recent days - all ministers are now under water:

Especially PM Nehammer, who has even fallen behind Mrs.RendiWagner in a fictive ChancellorElec.:

Caute: Lazarsfeld is perceived as not far away from SPÖ, but their numbers do not really differ from the others:

Good Lord! Mrs Rendi - Wagner is ahead. Have you got your smelling salts handy Georg?

[Georg Ebner]

Jul 25, 2022 15:56:04 GMT finsobruce said:

Jul 25, 2022 15:53:48 GMT Georg Ebner said:

With all the bad mood in the population - president v.d.Bellen (TheGreens) has, for example, been booed on 3 occasions in the recent days - all ministers are now under water:

Especially PM Nehammer, who has even fallen behind Mrs.RendiWagner in a fictive ChancellorElec.:

Caute: Lazarsfeld is perceived as not far away from SPÖ, but their numbers do not really differ from the others:

Good Lord! Mrs Rendi - Wagner is ahead. Have you got your smelling salts handy Georg?

Don't need it.
The amusing aspect is, that she has been quite invisible in recent months - but that obviously helps!

[finsobruce]

Jul 25, 2022 16:17:30 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Jul 25, 2022 15:56:04 GMT finsobruce said:

Good Lord! Mrs Rendi - Wagner is ahead. Have you got your smelling salts handy Georg?

Don't need it.
The amusing aspect is, that she has been quite invisible in recent months - but that obviously helps!

It often does with a candidate.

We have just been talking about George Howarth and I seem to remember that he did his back in during the Knowsley by-election and wasn't available for a large part of the campaign.

[Georg Ebner]

Wallentin, a lawyer writing every sunDay in the KronenZeitung - Austria's main tabloid (once read by ~45%, nowaDays during the week by the half, but ~30% on sunDay) -, will try to get 6.000 signatures as well.
He stated, that FPÖ's Kickl wanted to recruit him - without success. If FPÖ's Rosenkranz will collapse, it could get difficult for Kickl. Rumours go, that the FPÖ offered Wallentin 2017 to become JusticeMinister or judge at the ConstitutionalCourt (said to be blocked by the ÖVP).
Billionaire & exPolitician Frank Stronach will support his campaign with few hundredthousand Euros.