Austrian federal elections

[Georg Ebner]

OpinionPolls since spring 2019 of the institute "Market":

[Georg Ebner]

1 year ÖVP&Greens resulted in an OpinionPoll of OGM:

[Georg Ebner]

The population is losing its patience with the restrictions; and not only with the incapable HealthMinister (Anschober), but the government in general, what is helping SPÖ's Mrs.RendiWagner:





Kurz has already begun to integrate her. Few years ago she was the highest-ranking CivilServant in the HealthMinistry responsible for pandemics, so looking at the GREENy or Mrs. Adern must have been painfullest for her...
RendiWagner's biggest problem remains her party-"friend" Doskozil, who is presently attacking her cooperation-course. While is remains uncertain, whether the doctors can repair his voice and he can stay FM of the small Burgenland, he clearly tries to damage her constantly in order to be able to take the federal party over, as soon as he might have a chance against Kurz.

[Georg Ebner]

The ÖVP&Greens-coalition is - as was expectable from the beginning (unexpectable was rather, how free of public dispute it was run so far) - in a crisis because of a deportation: After the request of a family from Georgia (!) for asylum had been rejected in 15 years 6 times (!) by courts, after 6 (!) failed attempts their deportation was fulfilled by the ÖVP-run HomeOffice. (No doubt, anyway, that they will be back in few weeks - a for TaxPayers costly farce.) 5 Greens-MPs trying to blockade the police of their own government, the Greenish president appealing to circumvent law, the Twitteria infuriated.
Already before TheGreens were once polled in single digits:

But that 1 poll by ResearchAffairs is certainly an OutLier. That company had overpolled them in 2017:

...albeit strongly underestimated them in 2019:

One hope for the coalition is, that some Greens-projects will start this year and will have to be supported by ÖVP; then 3/4 will be upset by Greenish taxes, while making the 1/4 closer to them happy.

[Georg Ebner]

1 year ago no serious challenger of PM Kurz was in sight. Who would have expected a virus to take that place?:


IFDD is a new pollster, led by a couple of PsychoTherapists, so should not necessarily be taken incredibly serious.

[Georg Ebner]

IFDD - the new pollster, that consistently polls ÖVP lower than the other companies (s. above) - came out with this one:

www.puls24.at/news/politik/die-grosse-puls-24-umfrage-oevp-mit-niedrigstem-wert-seit-2019-liegt-aber-immer-noch-deutlich-voran/230814

Some salt is needed, but it's not entirely impossible: Recently the infamous antiCorruption-PublicProsecutors, who were already before called out openly by PM Kurz in public as left-leaning (built up in the 2000ies by a Green MP), have confiscated SmartPhones in his surrounding and are now handing out tweets around jobs in public companies for ÖVP-people.

43%:42% on whether the coalition will hold until 2024 (very, very likely not).

[Georg Ebner]

Tomorrow evening/night the votes of the students for their representation will be counted. Here is a historical OverView:

Is anyone interested in more on their electoral history?

[Georg Ebner]

So nobody is interested in my small country's students' elections.
If anyone will be, the results will be presented here:

wahlergebnisse2021.oeh.ac.at

... or here:

fm4.orf.at/stories/3014220

TurnOut at a new RecordLow of 15.8% (-10.0%).

[Georg Ebner]

MarketInstitute came out with a spectacular OpinionPoll:



With a - for austrian levels - high number of participants (1.000).
3 other companies polled in MidMay a ÖVP-SPÖ-margin of still 10-12%; but it's not impossible, that the dark cloud of Kurz vs. parts of the JusticeSystem may have had such an enormous ImPact?

[Georg Ebner]

While in Austria the Right (ÖVP&FPÖ&BZÖ) has since 1919 nearly always had a majority (albeit the PresidentialElec. have often shown its rather theoretical nature):

... few recent OpinionPolls have detected a narrowing:

ÖVP is in the same uncomfortable position as SPÖ: Turning into a rightliberal (agro)business-party would deliver the leadership on the right to the FPÖ; but any shift towards antiImmigration & EUscepticism lets the SubUrbs swing towards NEOS. The latter's ImPact on the BusinessScene has so far been limited to the IT-circles, as the results of the BusinessChamber-election 2020 demonstrate (despite low electorate & participation):

[Georg Ebner]

The DeViations of parties in the districts with former mining & industry:

drive.google.com/drive/folders/1WsWyJNkgLVmhsYb7ht7TkJZKyd1pd5T_?usp=sharing

Partly industrial cities (Vienna, Linz, Graz) and never socialistic Vorarlberg (ex-TextileInd.) were not included, but ÖVP-dominated areas [yellow] or SPÖ-friendly fringes (Carinthia, NorthBurgenland) were [pink].

[Georg Ebner]

The reason for making the tables (s. my post before) can be seen at maps of the RunOffs in PresidentialElections:

1951 (1st direct election) vs. 2004 (last RunOff of SPÖ-ÖVP):

1951 vs. 2016 (FPÖ-TheGreens):

1986 (Waldheim-election) vs. 2016 (FPÖ-TheGreens):

[Georg Ebner]

The same, but this time of the big (+100.000) & middle (+30.000) -seized towns:

drive.google.com/drive/folders/1oqyzsbsRDyBxiBGqUWyjSkNerF8spRBV?usp=sharing

Far more encouraging for the left.

[Georg Ebner]

On September 26th we will have 3 kinds of elections, alltogether not fitting into this thread:
- UpperAustria: region election
- UpperAustria: local elections
- Graz-City (Styria): local SnapElection (instead of regular ones next spring) was proclaimed by the ÖVP-mayor (his partner FPÖ was informed by the media...)

But tomorrow will happen also an election: That of the GeneralDirector of Public BroadCaster ORF (whose channels are still watched by 35%). The chiefs since 1967:

Wrabetz - SPÖ, but from a FPÖ-family - was elected in the final days of ÖVP&BZÖ by an antiÖVPcoalition, which included also FPÖ (and even BZÖ, if i remember correctly). He was reelected twice by SPÖVP. The present composition of the electoral body:

...makes it clear, that his chances for being reelected are minimal, his only hopes are ÖVP-defectors (but the election won't be secret). Aside from Wrabetz and Prantner (another SPÖ&FPÖ-mixture) 2 "bourgeois" (= ÖVP-near) candidates will candidate: Mrs.Totzauer and Mr.Weißmann, behind whom ÖVP stands (officially) and who is as a result the high favorite. Apart from the 16 ÖVP-votes he can hope for 2-4 "bourgeois" Independents and seemingly also of ÖVP's CoalitionPartner, TheGreens, who are promised to get 2 of 4 directors (Finance & TV-programs; Radio & Technics are apparently reserved for ÖVP). Yet, even a ÖVP-leadership won't alter ORF's left-dogmatism:

[Toylyyev]

Glad to learn that Austria has what we call Sozialwahlen, but i'm surprised that there doesn't seem to be a trade union with a capital c in its name, like in

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxembourg_Confederation_of_Christian_Trade_Unions

Tagging Georg Ebner .  

[Georg Ebner]

Aug 9, 2021 23:14:00 GMT Toylyyev said:

Glad to learn that Austria has what we call Sozialwahlen, but i'm surprised that there doesn't seem to be a trade union with a capital c in its name, like in

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxembourg_Confederation_of_Christian_Trade_Unions

Tagging Georg Ebner .  

This table presents only the % of (Dark)Red&Green TU-factions, not the others (ÖVP, FPÖ, Ind.). ÖVP's one is indeed called "Fraktion Christlicher Gewerkschafter/FCG".

Fine, that You are back!

[Georg Ebner]

Weißmann was to noone's surprise elected, even by 2/3:

[Georg Ebner]

DeViations in federal parliamentary elections of Right (=ÖVP+FPÖ+BZÖ) minus Left (=SPÖ+Greens+LiF/Neos+KPÖ) in:
- cities with over 30.000 inh.:

Share of votes measured on:
-- all eligible votes:

-- only valid votes:

- exMining&Industry-areas:

Measured on:
-- all eligible votes:

-- only valid votes:

[Georg Ebner]

Wiener Neustadt, for example, has been trending from being the leftiest of all cities ("the forever loyal" [to SPÖ]) to the least left one.

[Georg Ebner]

Suburban districts (and Vienna's ex-bourgeois ones):

DeViations of Right (ÖVP+FPÖ+BZÖ) minus Left (SPÖ, TheGreens, LiF/NEOS, KPÖ) in parliamentary elections, measured at
- all eligible votes:

- only valid votes: