Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,800 
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 30, 2024 17:31:29 GMT
Kickl's people have come out with the usual "we got more votes and seats than anyone else, therefore we won the election, therefore we should form the next Government" schtick. It helps if you cultivate friendships and potential allies in an electoral and political system which virtually guarantees no one party will ever win a majority on its own and for all the bluster, the FPO fell a long way short of that goal. The OVP suffer from being the Government which (along with the Greens) was decisively rejected by the electorate - the previous coalition of OVP and Greens had 97 seats in the Nationalrat, the two parties have 67. The SPO have stood still - a damning indictment of their performance. Soon after Kurz fell, it seemed the SPO had a real chance of forming the next Government but in the end it all dribbled away and they ended up with about the same result as 2019 which was pretty bad for them. NEOS have edged forward - while they have worked with both the SPO in Vienna and with the OVP and Greens in Salzburg, the latter experience (being thrown out of the Landtag in 2023) as well as that of the Greens in the Federal Election will hopefully show them the dangers of "junior partner syndrome"and they may be more reluctant to go into a formal arrangement. The Greens are left licking their wounds after a bad result. So, what now? The key players look to be the SPO and to an extent NEOS - in essence Babler can jump with either Kickl or Nehammer - the former would represent a clear change from the previous Government and the SPO and FPO have governed together in the past (though a long time ago). Given the clear antipathy between Kickl and Nehammer, it might be the leverage for a new FPO-SPO coalition. Going in with Nehemmer keeps Kickl and the FPO out for now but longer term, as the main opposition, it seems likely the FPO will continue to grow. As often with politics, it's short term expediency vs long-term strategy. If they go in with the FPO, it will probably give the OVP some breathing space to rebuild in opposition but for many in the SPO they'll be reaching for the long spoons if they think they are supping with the Devil. I appreciate Your interEst in my small country, but it would be helpful, if You took notice of comments - or at least "hard" data: In the Politics-thread You could find, that according to pollster ForeSight only 5% of SPÖ-voters want FPÖ to be in government. Babler posed as "the wall against the FPÖ", noBody here takes SPÖ&FPÖ even into acCount. |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,800
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 30, 2024 17:33:08 GMT
...and NEOS are absolutely desperate to get after 11 years into government. (It's the last chance for their present leader.)
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Post by swanarcadian on Sept 30, 2024 17:34:56 GMT
Thank you Georg, for all your wonderful maps.
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Post by stodge on Sept 30, 2024 17:38:01 GMT
Kickl's people have come out with the usual "we got more votes and seats than anyone else, therefore we won the election, therefore we should form the next Government" schtick. It helps if you cultivate friendships and potential allies in an electoral and political system which virtually guarantees no one party will ever win a majority on its own and for all the bluster, the FPO fell a long way short of that goal. The OVP suffer from being the Government which (along with the Greens) was decisively rejected by the electorate - the previous coalition of OVP and Greens had 97 seats in the Nationalrat, the two parties have 67. The SPO have stood still - a damning indictment of their performance. Soon after Kurz fell, it seemed the SPO had a real chance of forming the next Government but in the end it all dribbled away and they ended up with about the same result as 2019 which was pretty bad for them. NEOS have edged forward - while they have worked with both the SPO in Vienna and with the OVP and Greens in Salzburg, the latter experience (being thrown out of the Landtag in 2023) as well as that of the Greens in the Federal Election will hopefully show them the dangers of "junior partner syndrome"and they may be more reluctant to go into a formal arrangement. The Greens are left licking their wounds after a bad result. So, what now? The key players look to be the SPO and to an extent NEOS - in essence Babler can jump with either Kickl or Nehammer - the former would represent a clear change from the previous Government and the SPO and FPO have governed together in the past (though a long time ago). Given the clear antipathy between Kickl and Nehammer, it might be the leverage for a new FPO-SPO coalition. Going in with Nehemmer keeps Kickl and the FPO out for now but longer term, as the main opposition, it seems likely the FPO will continue to grow. As often with politics, it's short term expediency vs long-term strategy. If they go in with the FPO, it will probably give the OVP some breathing space to rebuild in opposition but for many in the SPO they'll be reaching for the long spoons if they think they are supping with the Devil. I appreciate Your interEst in my small country, but it would be helpful, if You took notice of comments - or at least "hard" data: In the Politics-thread You could find, that according to pollster ForeSight only 5% of SPÖ-voters want FPÖ to be in government. Babler posed as "the wall against the FPÖ", noBody here takes SPÖ&FPÖ even into acCount. Thanks for the response. I wonder if you had asked Liberal Democrat voters here in 2010 how many would have preferred coalition with the Conservatives over Labour what the proportion would have been. IF you are right, therefore, an OVP-SPO-NEOS coalition looks the only option and Nehemmer, despite presiding over a dreadful result for the OVP, gets to remain Chancellor. IF that happens, the FPO will be in a strong position in Opposition to make a real challenge to the new coalition next time. |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,800
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 30, 2024 17:56:44 GMT
I appreciate Your interEst in my small country, but it would be helpful, if You took notice of comments - or at least "hard" data: In the Politics-thread You could find, that according to pollster ForeSight only 5% of SPÖ-voters want FPÖ to be in government. Babler posed as "the wall against the FPÖ", noBody here takes SPÖ&FPÖ even into acCount. Thanks for the response. I wonder if you had asked Liberal Democrat voters here in 2010 how many would have preferred coalition with the Conservatives over Labour what the proportion would have been. IF you are right, therefore, an OVP-SPO-NEOS coalition looks the only option and Nehemmer, despite presiding over a dreadful result for the OVP, gets to remain Chancellor. IF that happens, the FPO will be in a strong position in Opposition to make a real challenge to the new coalition next time. Right and SPÖ is/was infamous for its apparatchiks/members/voters enduring&excusing basically everyThing. But, as mentioned in the Politics-thread, pollsters have asked this question now and again also more detailed and still only a minority said to tolerate such a coalition. Already Faymann ensured 2008 privately, that he won't make it "because it would split the party". And indeed they would lose immediately most academics & imMigrants. By the way: Exactly their law&order Doskozil ruled FPÖ out (amusingly also ÖVP) in order to appease the left wing. Final problem: The ecoNomy is in reCession, the budget is exhausted - there is no money left to spend for such a coalition, only the need for unpopular cuts. |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,800
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 30, 2024 18:15:44 GMT
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Post by uthacalthing on Sept 30, 2024 18:40:53 GMT
BBC are traumatised.
Are the Freedom Party ACTUALLY far right?
Clearly, they are currently mainstream, so not Far Right. But is the mainstream of Austria Far Right in the context of the UK? Or in the context of the past? Do they wish to suspend democracy or the rule of law, do they have militaristic or irredentist tendencies?
I am genuinely asking
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Post by aargauer on Sept 30, 2024 18:44:17 GMT
BBC are traumatised. Are the Freedom Party ACTUALLY far right? Clearly, they are currently mainstream, so not Far Right. But is the mainstream of Austria Far Right in the context of the UK? Or in the context of the past? Do they wish to suspend democracy or the rule of law, do they have militaristic or irredentist tendencies? I am genuinely asking I'd say hard right not far. About as hard as SVP or Reform, less than the AfD. |
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Post by uthacalthing on Sept 30, 2024 18:49:03 GMT
Ok.
Dissenting opinion anyone?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 30, 2024 18:56:55 GMT
I assume they would re-annexe the South Tyrol if they could
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Post by swanarcadian on Sept 30, 2024 19:05:26 GMT
There does seem to be a pattern emerging here among Western European countries. Austria has followed the lead of France, Italy and the Netherlands in electing right wing - as opposed to centre-right - parties as the largest in their legislatures. Reform in the UK, AfD in Germany and Vox in Spain have risen too over the past decade.
Is this a coincidence or is it an international phenomenon? Maybe a new thread is needed.
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Post by uthacalthing on Sept 30, 2024 19:13:58 GMT
Across Europe, formerly centre-right parties have abandoned the centre-right to occupy the centre-left.
Nature abhors a vacuum
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,800
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 30, 2024 23:18:23 GMT
BBC are traumatised. Are the Freedom Party ACTUALLY far right? Clearly, they are currently mainstream, so not Far Right. But is the mainstream of Austria Far Right in the context of the UK? Or in the context of the past? Do they wish to suspend democracy or the rule of law, do they have militaristic or irredentist tendencies? I am genuinely asking I'd say hard right not far. About as hard as SVP or Reform, less than the AfD. They have no "militaristic or irredentist tendencies". And they are certainly more socialistic and radical than SVP (Blocher would be in Austria a sleepingPill) and even than AfD. (E.g.: Nationalistic students from Germany have now and again been traumatized by visits to their austrian counterParts... Or: An AfDer said, that not all SSers were criminals, what cost him the membership in AfD and AfD that in PfE - yet, Kickl had said the same (by the way: also Kreisky) and it was no big issue here.) It's just, that the political climate in <West>Germany is absolutely left"liberal" with anyThing different totally forbidden and persecuted, while in Austria it is far more relaxed. Thus AfD is totally banned by the other german parties and as a consequence is in its internal climate nastier than the FPÖ, which is more established&"normal". In the USA both wouldn't be seen as right of Trumpism, on issues like abortion/homosexuality/transGender they would even be put to the "Liberals". |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,800
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 30, 2024 23:22:06 GMT
I assume they would re-annexe the South Tyrol if they could Actually my surRounding has once been full of stickers on lanterns/... demanding exactly this... And ÖVP&FPÖ planned indeed to introduce dual citizenship, but generally this is no issue in public. |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,800
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 30, 2024 23:22:23 GMT
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Post by swanarcadian on Oct 1, 2024 8:58:49 GMT
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,800
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 1, 2024 13:48:28 GMT
I'd say hard right not far. About as hard as SVP or Reform, less than the AfD. They have no "militaristic or irredentist tendencies". And they are certainly more socialistic and radical than SVP (Blocher would be in Austria a sleepingPill) and even than AfD. (E.g.: Nationalistic students from Germany have now and again been traumatized by visits to their austrian counterParts... Or: An AfDer said, that not all SSers were criminals, what cost him the membership in AfD and AfD that in PfE - yet, Kickl had said the same (by the way: also Kreisky) and it was no big issue here.) It's just, that the political climate in <West>Germany is absolutely left"liberal" with anyThing different totally forbidden and persecuted, while in Austria it is far more relaxed. Thus AfD is totally banned by the other german parties and as a consequence is in its internal climate nastier than the FPÖ, which is more established&"normal". In the USA both wouldn't be seen as right of Trumpism, on issues like abortion/homosexuality/transGender they would even be put to the "Liberals". Another example is, that the leader of Austria's "Identitarian Movement" spoke near Berlin without any concerns about "remigration" (that guestWorkers or asylumSeekers must go back at some point). What caused an incredible outBurst in conformist Germany with even AfD-participants stepping down - whereas FPÖ used the term openly for several times in its electionProgram! |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,800
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 4, 2024 21:09:59 GMT
Parliamentary elections 2019-vs.-2024, trend of the right bloc:  The sharp shift of Vorarlberg is surprising. ÖVP's comparatively low losses there ("just" 7.5%, in Austria 11.2%) are certainly caused by its antiKickl/FPÖ-stances, which were popular in this mostly urbanized region. |
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Post by uthacalthing on Oct 4, 2024 21:37:31 GMT
If the Hard right came first on 28% and a range of parties on the hard, soft and centre left amounted to 35%, i could see that there would be a sound democratic case to form a government of the broad left. I can see how the Centre might support it, and how the centre right might choose to not oppose it.
When the hard right poll 28% and the closest rival is the centre right on 26%, and there is no other possible two-party coalition, there is only one democratically justifiable coalition.
And if they can't make it happen, and the Austrian people (ie the establishment and the people of Vienna) don't permit it to happen they need to admit that they can't accept democracy.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,800
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 5, 2024 9:21:55 GMT
If the Hard right came first on 28% and a range of parties on the hard, soft and centre left amounted to 35%, i could see that there would be a sound democratic case to form a government of the broad left. I can see how the Centre might support it, and how the centre right might choose to not oppose it. When the hard right poll 28% and the closest rival is the centre right on 26%, and there is no other possible two-party coalition, there is only one democratically justifiable coalition. And if they can't make it happen, and the Austrian people (ie the establishment and the people of Vienna) don't permit it to happen they need to admit that they can't accept democracy. The FPÖ received even 29% (28.84%) - so nearly as much as RN alone (without Ciotti) in round I -, but the left (n.b. without NEOS) achieved actually 35%! And similar to Macron ÖVP's Nehammer campaigned on antiKicklism (while adopting the latter's policies); plus Kickl has himself denounced not incorrectly a "unity-party" of all the others and only FPÖ defending austrian independence&neutrality. Thus it is just consequent and very democratic, when the others, who obey the more or less to the left"liberal" terror in Europe, coalition against Kickl. But this will likely result next time in FPÖ above 30% and ÖVP below 20% and as a conSequence will break the postWarSystem of SPÖVP. Problematic would be, if the president (exLeader of TheGreens) refused to hand governmentFormation over to the strongest party - by written law he can do that (amusingly ChristianSocials & GermanNationals changed - naturally with help of the SocialDem.s - the constitution 1928 in that regard), but by habit it has never been done. Yet, that's without political relevance as ÖVP&SPÖ&NEOS was probably already long before the election negotiated by those, who have the final say here: ÖVP-LowerA. & SPÖ-Vienna. (I reported some time ago the birthDay-party of LowerA.'s Mikl-Leitner, which turned - in front of her FPÖ-coalitionPartner... - into a celebration of ÖVP&SPÖ; or chancellor Nehammer attending the birthDay-feast of SPÖ's Hanke (yes, the FreeMason & Viennese dep.mayor, who has for years been traded as new viceChancellor...).) AnyWay there won't happen anyThing for 2 months: In 8 days is the regional election in Vorarlberg (4% of pop.) scheduled and on November 24th that of Styria (15% of pop.), where FPÖ will quite certainly come first and ÖVP&SPÖ try to limit the damage. And why shouldn't politics stand still since spring (EP-election in June, then the national one) for 2 further months, just because we have been for 2 years in a reCession, our industry being dependent on Germany's crumbling carIndustry, the inFlation having been higher than anywhere else in Europe, wealth decreasing, the budgetDeficit increasing to over 3%, the debts to 80% of GDP... |
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