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Post by evergreenadam on Feb 24, 2020 19:07:53 GMT
West Yorks? The east of Leeds has disappeared off the Lib Dem map. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 24, 2020 20:47:08 GMT
No they just got less than 5% in those wards
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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 24, 2020 21:11:26 GMT
No they just got less than 5% in those wards I think it's more a screen width issue - the Lib Dem map in that post is inexplicably huge. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 24, 2020 21:24:36 GMT
Strangely it didn't show up like that on my screen though it had been set to 175% rather than 75% - I must have been seeing a cached image. Anyway should be fixed now
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Post by where2travel on Feb 24, 2020 23:20:30 GMT
I'm surprised the Lib Dems didn't win a single ward in Hazel Grove. Less surprising is Cheadle which followed more recent local elections with the Lib Dems winning the Cheadle and Cheadle Hulme wards and the Tories winning the two Bramhall wards.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 24, 2020 23:34:00 GMT
I'm surprised the Lib Dems didn't win a single ward in Hazel Grove. Less surprising is Cheadle which followed more recent local elections with the Lib Dems winning the Cheadle and Cheadle Hulme wards and the Tories winning the two Bramhall wards. I was too, but the support for both parties is much more evenly spread there, whereas Cheadle is a lot more disparate (and was of course a fair bit closer overall). |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Feb 24, 2020 23:40:08 GMT
Love Harewood/Wetherby sticking out. I think you might have Garforth and Swillington/Kippax and Methley the wrong way round. While Labour have traditional done well in the former their vote seems to have been personal (they comfortably gained a seat from the Tories in 2007 of all years) and collapsed when their councillors went indie. Garforth in particularly has a shed load of middle class housing in recent years. My 2017 numbers have Labour marginally ahead in Garforth and Swillington while comfortably ahead in Kippax and Methley. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 24, 2020 23:45:20 GMT
I have the shares as virtually identical in both wards except that the Conservatives are a shade over 46% in G&S and a shade under in K&M. Labour are in the same band in both wards
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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 24, 2020 23:54:00 GMT
Love Harewood/Wetherby sticking out. I think you might have Garforth and Swillington/Kippax and Methley the wrong way round. While Labour have traditional done well in the former their vote seems to have been personal (they comfortably gained a seat from the Tories in 2007 of all years) and collapsed when their councillors went indie. Garforth in particularly has a shed load of middle class housing in recent years. My 2017 numbers have Labour marginally ahead in Garforth and Swillington while comfortably ahead in Kippax and Methley. I think a similar pattern applies in Keighley Central and Keighley East. The local Conservatives appear to be very good at appealing to the mostly Pakistani communities in Central, and Zafar Ali seems to have a huge personal vote, but I wouldn't expect that to appear at a national level. As an aside I don't think any notional calculations can account for Keighley West either, where I expect Labour will have been very weak indeed, at least compared to normal. Did any of the central Bradford wards exceed Merseyside for their Labour vote, as you suspected earlier? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 25, 2020 0:00:45 GMT
Love Harewood/Wetherby sticking out. I think you might have Garforth and Swillington/Kippax and Methley the wrong way round. While Labour have traditional done well in the former their vote seems to have been personal (they comfortably gained a seat from the Tories in 2007 of all years) and collapsed when their councillors went indie. Garforth in particularly has a shed load of middle class housing in recent years. My 2017 numbers have Labour marginally ahead in Garforth and Swillington while comfortably ahead in Kippax and Methley. I think a similar pattern applies in Keighley Central and Keighley East. The local Conservatives appear to be very good at appealing to the mostly Pakistani communities in Central, and Zafar Ali seems to have a huge personal vote, but I wouldn't expect that to appear at a national level. As an aside I don't think any notional calculations can account for Keighley West either, where I expect Labour will have been very weak indeed, at least compared to normal. Did any of the central Bradford wards exceed Merseyside for their Labour vote, as you suspected earlier? Yes these sort of wards are quite problematic, where you have a Tory councillor from within the 'community' who clearly outperforms the natural or national level of Conservative support. There were similar problems in the past in Dewsbury South and other wards in Bradford and elsewhere. I couldn't remember which of Keighley East or West was the predominantly WWC council estate bit (This is one of the reasons I always found the census feature on boundary assistant so useful as a quick reference) so I could adjust as necessary. I had three wards in Bradford West in the mid to high 80s (City, Manningham and Toller) and also Little Horton was in that ballpark, but only Manningham exceeded the previous high in Everton with a figure of 89.9% |
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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 25, 2020 0:08:03 GMT
I think a similar pattern applies in Keighley Central and Keighley East. The local Conservatives appear to be very good at appealing to the mostly Pakistani communities in Central, and Zafar Ali seems to have a huge personal vote, but I wouldn't expect that to appear at a national level. As an aside I don't think any notional calculations can account for Keighley West either, where I expect Labour will have been very weak indeed, at least compared to normal. Did any of the central Bradford wards exceed Merseyside for their Labour vote, as you suspected earlier? Yes these sort of wards are quite problematic, where you have a Tory councillor from within the 'community' who clearly outperforms the natural or national level of Conservative support. There were similar problems in the past in Dewsbury South and other wards in Bradford and elsewhere. I couldn't remember which of Keighley East or West was the predominantly WWC council estate bit (This is one of the reasons I always found the census feature on boundary assistant so useful as a quick reference) so I could adjust as necessary. I had three wards in Bradford West in the mid to high 80s (City, Manningham and Toller) and also Little Horton was in that ballpark, but only Manningham exceeded the previous high in Everton with a figure of 89.9% West is almost entirely WWC, East is a bit more mixed (both ethnically due to the area around the ASDA, but also socially because of relatively affluent Riddlesden). For reference, at the EU referendum Bradford released ward counts, so we know that West was 68% Leave, versus 58% in East (Worth Valley and Craven were similar, while Keighley Central and Ilkley were both Remain, the latter massively so). |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 25, 2020 0:11:28 GMT
Do you have a link to the full set of ward results for Bradford?
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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 25, 2020 0:15:30 GMT
Do you have a link to the full set of ward results for Bradford? It's only percentages, and it's in hexagon form, but this link should work. You can also find the results for Birmingham, Salford, Calderdale, and parts of Brighton, as well as various other demographic facts about a few other authorities (seemingly chosen at random). |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Feb 25, 2020 0:22:39 GMT
I have the shares as virtually identical in both wards except that the Conservatives are a shade over 46% in G&S and a shade under in K&M. Labour are in the same band in both wards Perhaps I’m going colour blind but Labour look a shade higher G&S. Probably not a massive difference in 2019 but I assume Labour would do a bit better in K&M. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Feb 25, 2020 0:25:00 GMT
It's only percentages, and it's in hexagon form, but this link should work. You can also find the results for Birmingham, Salford, Calderdale, and parts of Brighton, as well as various other demographic facts about a few other authorities (seemingly chosen at random). I’m shocked that 1/3 of people in Queensbury voted Remain 😮 |
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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 25, 2020 0:31:04 GMT
It's only percentages, and it's in hexagon form, but this link should work. You can also find the results for Birmingham, Salford, Calderdale, and parts of Brighton, as well as various other demographic facts about a few other authorities (seemingly chosen at random). I’m shocked that 1/3 of people in Queensbury voted Remain 😮 I was more surprised at City - I assumed the city centre ward, with a fairly decent student population, and a very high non-"White British/Pakistani" population for Bradford, would be the biggest for Remain. But several beat it, even if narrowly! Ilkley and Manningham are strange political bedfellows though - it isn't surprising both were among the most Remain wards, but their residents probably don't agree on much. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Feb 25, 2020 0:41:46 GMT
Ilkley and Manningham are strange political bedfellows though - it isn't surprising both were among the most Remain wards, but their residents probably don't agree on much. Interestly, Ilkley doesn’t seem to have trended much to Labour despite its large middle class remain vote which in similar areas have seem much more improvement. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 25, 2020 0:48:20 GMT
Ilkley and Manningham are strange political bedfellows though - it isn't surprising both were among the most Remain wards, but their residents probably don't agree on much. Interestly, Ilkley doesn’t seem to have trended much to Labour despite its large middle class remain vote which in similar areas have seem much more improvement. The one factor which might play a role in that is isolation. Ilkley is quite some distance from Leeds, and it's the wrong side of the moor for Bradford. Perhaps that makes it behave more like a rural town, far from happy hunting ground for Labour! But of course, trends take time to materialise - perhaps in five or ten years we'll have noticed a larger change. In terms of demographics, distance from major cities, and general feel of the place, Ilkley strikes me as a slightly smaller* Yorkshire version of Hexham, and that doesn't seem to be trending too heavily Labour, at least not yet. * that's despite apparently having a bigger population - presumably not having a massive rural hinterland means its centre isn't as busy. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 25, 2020 1:18:50 GMT
In a decade? Ah, but in a decade, for all we know, Ilkley will be apparently trending away from the Green Party and towards the Yorkshire Party (Democratic)  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 25, 2020 20:58:04 GMT
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