|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 23, 2019 21:15:44 GMT
Usual caveats.. Wards used are those in existence at the time the constituencies were drawn a decade ago London  Changes from 2017 Con Gain from Lab Barking & Dagenham: Eastbrook Barnet: East Barnet; West Hendon Bexley: Belvedere; Erith Enfield: Bush Hill Park Greenwich: Eltham North Hammersmith & Fulham: Sands End Harrow: Headstone North; Kenton East Hillingdon: Charville; West Drayton Hounslow: Bedfont; Hanworth Park Merton: Lower Morden Redbridge: Bridge; Fairlop Westminster: Vincent Square Con Gain from LD Sutton: Carshalton Central; Wallington North; Wallington South LD Gain from Con Kingston: St James's Merton: Dundonald; Merton Park; Trinity; West Barnes Richmond: East Sheen; Mortlake & Barnes Common; South Richmond Sutton: Sutton Central LD Gain from Lab Barnet: West Finchley; Woodhouse Merton: Abbey; Canon Hill Lab Gain from Con: Waltham Forest: Hatch Lane; Larkswood Wandsworth: East Putney; Fairfield; Southfields; West Putney |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 23, 2019 21:18:04 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Dec 23, 2019 21:27:04 GMT
You're spoiling us - this is a real early Christmas treat!
Just one point of clarification - I guess it's hard to predict because of its unique political composition, but could the City of London have been narrowly Lib Dem? Looking at the shades from your map the Conservatives and Lib Dems look neck and neck.
|
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Dec 23, 2019 22:45:25 GMT
I don't know what the methodology was, but it's rubbish. Conservative Party was way ahead in Croydon New Addington South and probably slightly ahead in New Addington North.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435 
|
Post by iain on Dec 23, 2019 23:51:54 GMT
Yeah, while I certainly wouldn’t call them ‘rubbish’, I think Pete Whitehead’s methodology will work far less well for this election than it has previously. Certainly, from what I’ve seen of Lib Dem data our strength within seats will generally have been correlated more with the strength of the remain vote than our historic areas of strength. I can see that you have both Kingston and Wimbledon wrong, and I’d be pretty surprised if that was the pattern in Carshalton. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 24, 2019 5:25:09 GMT
You're spoiling us - this is a real early Christmas treat! Just one point of clarification - I guess it's hard to predict because of its unique political composition, but could the City of London have been narrowly Lib Dem? Looking at the shades from your map the Conservatives and Lib Dems look neck and neck. Conservatives, Lib Dems and Labour were neck and neck on my numbers - all just over 30%. It's a particularly difficult one as we only have GLA election results to go on, but on that basis it clearly is less Conservative than the constituency as a whole. It could literally have gone any way and clearly could have been narrowly Lib Dem. When someone else asked if the City had gone Lib Dem though (in response to my map of LAs by leading party) Davıd Boothroyd was fairly emphatic that it did not. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 24, 2019 5:29:29 GMT
I don't know what the methodology was, but it's rubbish. Conservative Party was way ahead in Croydon New Addington South and probably slightly ahead in New Addington North. I stated clearly at the start of the thread (and it is equally obvious from the ward map) that the wards used are those which existed when the constituencies were drawn. As such, there are no such wards as 'New Addington North' and 'New Addington South' and you are talking your customary nonsense |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 24, 2019 5:45:39 GMT
Yeah, while I certainly wouldn’t call them ‘rubbish’, I think Pete Whitehead’s methodology will work far less well for this election than it has previously. Certainly, from what I’ve seen of Lib Dem data our strength within seats will generally have been correlated more with the strength of the remain vote than our historic areas of strength. I can see that you have both Kingston and Wimbledon wrong, and I’d be pretty surprised if that was the pattern in Carshalton. It's difficult but as there is a UKIP vote in the base data that does help to introduce a 'Brexit' vote into the equation where there isn't necessarily much underlying Conservative support. This leads to larger swings to the Conservatives in more Brexity areas and is probably most helpful in Con-Lab facing areas - so they do win in places like Harold Hill (and Chelmsley Wood elsewhere) and New Addington is possible. But while obviously patterns have been altered, they haven't been completely turned on their head. The Conservatives still carried Surrey and Labour still won in Hull - it's not going to be literally a re-run of the referendum. On the Con-Lib Dem facing contests it could be more tricky as I well know, living in unfortunately an area of considerable Lib Dem strength. I think you pointed out how in Cheltenham the usual (local) voting patterns could be mroe or less reversed as teh Lib Dem strength has ususally been strongest in areas like Hesters Way which would have been the most strong Leave area. I've made similar observations in relation to Three Rivers. It's possible then the Conservatives carried (for example) St Helier but not Carshalton Central, Chessington South rather then Old Malden. In the Sutton case, both wards are neck and neck and this implies a larger swing in St Helier than in Carshalton so the numbers pick up this nuance to an extent which the map doesn't necessarily convey. The map should be regarded as impressionistic. Always happy to hear corrections though based on credible evidence from counts etc |
|
|
|
Post by robert1 on Dec 24, 2019 8:29:07 GMT
Pete-these maps are both stunning and very helpful.
I am fortunate enough to have ward details which mean that I can locate those which you believe have changed hands. For others, and for general impression, is there any way you can edge (or in some other way identify) the relevant wards?
Apologies for suggesting yet more work. Happy Christmas.
|
|
WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,267
|
Post by WJ on Dec 24, 2019 9:21:36 GMT
Lovely! I don't know London at all. What's that deep blue ward surrounded by a pale sea in the Walthamstow or Tottenham-ish area? |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 24, 2019 9:23:50 GMT
Lovely! I don't know London at all. What's that deep blue ward surrounded by a pale sea in the Walthamstow or Tottenham-ish area? You're probably referring to Springfield ward in Hackney which is in the Stamford Hill area but I would not describe as 'deep blue' (I suppose it is relatively speaking) |
|
WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,267
|
Post by WJ on Dec 24, 2019 9:28:44 GMT
Lovely! I don't know London at all. What's that deep blue ward surrounded by a pale sea in the Walthamstow or Tottenham-ish area? You're probably referring to Springfield ward in Hackney which is in the Stamford Hill area but I would not describe as 'deep blue' (I suppose it is relatively speaking) Yes, deep in relative terms. Wikipedia suggests that this area has the highest density of Haredi Jews in Europe. I guess that explains the result somewhat? |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 24, 2019 9:31:55 GMT
You're probably referring to Springfield ward in Hackney which is in the Stamford Hill area but I would not describe as 'deep blue' (I suppose it is relatively speaking) Yes, deep in relative terms. Wikipedia suggests that this area has the highest density of Haredi Jews in Europe. I guess that explains the result somewhat? It's been Conservative held at local level for several decades now and as the local results are the basis for my calculations that explains it more than any swing consequent upon more recent issues. Nonetheless, it is still Labour by about two to one on my figures |
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Dec 24, 2019 11:19:47 GMT
Usual caveats.. Wards used are those in existence at the time the constituencies were drawn a decade ago London *needs shading*  |
|
cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,589
|
Post by cibwr on Dec 24, 2019 16:52:44 GMT
as ever amazing work Peter!!!
|
|
|
|
Post by AdminSTB on Dec 24, 2019 16:55:09 GMT
I don't know what the methodology was, but it's rubbish. Conservative Party was way ahead in Croydon New Addington South and probably slightly ahead in New Addington North. I stated clearly at the start of the thread (and it is equally obvious from the ward map) that the wards used are those which existed when the constituencies were drawn. As such, there are no such wards as 'New Addington North' and 'New Addington South' and you are talking your customary nonsense We can always rely on John to show his appreciation for hard work. |
|
Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
|
Post by Harry Hayfield on Dec 24, 2019 17:01:01 GMT
Okay, now the real question? Will the Lib Dems be able to win London South West in May (or should they focus on Merton and Wandsworth?)
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 24, 2019 17:06:11 GMT
Okay, now the real question? Will the Lib Dems be able to win London South West in May (or should they focus on Merton and Wandsworth?) South West. Labour is too strong in Mitcham and Tooting for the LDs to push them aside in Merton & Wandsworth. |
|
|
|
Post by pepperminttea on Dec 25, 2019 1:59:58 GMT
Yeah, while I certainly wouldn’t call them ‘rubbish’, I think Pete Whitehead ’s methodology will work far less well for this election than it has previously. Certainly, from what I’ve seen of Lib Dem data our strength within seats will generally have been correlated more with the strength of the remain vote than our historic areas of strength. I can see that you have both Kingston and Wimbledon wrong, and I’d be pretty surprised if that was the pattern in Carshalton. Electoral Calculus (obviously huge caveats do apply though they do seem to have improved their methodology quite a bit since a few years ago) has the Lib Dems winning: -All wards in Richmond borough -All wards in Kingston borough -Carshalton Central, The Wrythe, Wallington South in Sutton borough (the Tories winning St. Helier and Wandle Valley) -Dundonald, Trinity, West Barnes, Wimbledon Park in Merton borough (Labour eking out a win in Abbey, only a very narrow Tory victory in Hillside) -City of London (by 2 votes) -Nothing in Barnet due to vote splits leaving the Tories ahead in West Finchley and Woodhouse on low vote shares. Does this sound more or less accurate to you? Thanks to Pete Whitehead for producing his own figures though. I always enjoy seeing his ward maps! |
|
|
|
Post by martinwhelton on Dec 25, 2019 9:26:11 GMT
We have the election ward data for Merton with the usual postal vote caveat. I have also seen the ward data for Carshalton and Wallington. Do we know which councils counted by ward?
|
|
