Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 26, 2019 12:59:08 GMT
While minority voters were certainly more likely to vote Labour than white ones in December,* it is important to note that Labour's percentage appears to have fallen at much the same rate amongst minorities as white voters. Of course as Labour clearly held up well enough some some minorities, it must have fallen harder than average with others. Which is obvious enough from certain results.
Anyway, the implications of this are quite important in terms of any discussion as to Labour's future direction...
*With turnout, as always, being substantially lower.
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Dec 26, 2019 12:59:22 GMT
I'd take his vote to have been spread fairly evenly except being weak in South Oxhey and on the whole doing better and coming closer in the wards where the Lib Dems are strong, so the closest on that basis would be in Croxley Green, Chorleywood West and so on, but not particularly close. The reality may be very different of course - it's quite unhelpful that he stood and did so well to be honest Yeah, I think a lot of the independents may make your life more difficult. If you do Devon, Claire Wright will probably be even harder, since given her margin she may have taken some areas. I think Zadrozny might help you though, since the Ashfield Independents are locally active and strong, so if they didn't stand your calculations would be more off. I don't think modelling Claire Wright is difficult at all – she's effectively a schismatic Lib Dem. She has made no impact on the Conservative and Labour votes beyond the effects of (a) noise and (b) Jeremy Corbyn. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2019 13:21:45 GMT
The importance of ethnic minority voters in Labour's voter base  I'm surprised Highgate is the most White ward in Camden. I thought it would be Frognal & Fitzjohns but it's lazy analysis to assume the bluest ward would be the most White. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Dec 26, 2019 14:35:23 GMT
Count data showed that Malden Manor was best Lib Dem ward in Kingston surprisingly.
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Post by evergreenadam on Dec 26, 2019 15:44:24 GMT
Feltham North by-election on the same day as the General Election was a narrow Tory gain from Labour. Assuming some correlation between local and General election voting in this WWC ward, it would be reasonable to expect that the Tories would have been ahead in the adjacent Bedfont and Hanworth Park wards which have similar demographics. Bedfont and Hanworth Park wards have returned Tory councillors in good years, even when Feltham North did not.
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Dec 26, 2019 16:33:30 GMT
Yeah, I think a lot of the independents may make your life more difficult. If you do Devon, Claire Wright will probably be even harder, since given her margin she may have taken some areas. I think Zadrozny might help you though, since the Ashfield Independents are locally active and strong, so if they didn't stand your calculations would be more off. The Ashfield Independents are so strong at the local level that it makes it difficult to work out where Labour and the Conservatives actually got votes. When I was estimating the 2017 result I mainly relied on class, 2015 Lib Dem, using the Broxtowe section to work out how similar areas in Ashfield council voted etc. For Claire Wright, you can assume she won the wards in her county council ward, did poorly in the Exeter part of the constituency, and make some guesses based on the strength of non-Conservative vote in council elections. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2019 16:37:31 GMT
Yeah, I think a lot of the independents may make your life more difficult. If you do Devon, Claire Wright will probably be even harder, since given her margin she may have taken some areas. I think Zadrozny might help you though, since the Ashfield Independents are locally active and strong, so if they didn't stand your calculations would be more off. The Ashfield Independents are so strong at the local level that it makes it difficult to work out where Labour and the Conservatives actually got votes. When I was estimating the 2017 result I mainly relied on class, 2015 Lib Dem, using the Broxtowe section to work out how similar areas in Ashfield council voted etc. For Claire Wright, you can assume she won the wards in her county council ward, did poorly in the Exeter part of the constituency, and make some guesses based on the strength of non-Conservative vote in council elections. Everyone's favourite Z-list celebrity may have won none of the wards in the General Election of course. Lib Dem success in Wimbledon and Winchester at a local level came much closer to being matched in the General Election than Jason Zarodzny's. His best chance of becoming an MP was at the start of this decade. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Dec 26, 2019 20:14:21 GMT
Count data showed that Malden Manor was best Lib Dem ward in Kingston surprisingly. Were you at the count? |
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Post by robert1 on Dec 26, 2019 20:19:25 GMT
Pete-as I have said up page, thank you so much for your speedy and detailed work. Disappointed to see my former ward of Whoberley as the one isolated island of red in the West Mids. Are you intending to identify the changed wards in the West Mids as you have in London? I'm spending far too much time looking at your work. Fascinating.
The one ward which struck me as surprising is Bartley Green. The Tories normally carried it by clear margins in the locals and yet you have it as Labour. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 26, 2019 20:31:59 GMT
One small question: are all these maps to the same scale? They look like they might be, but I don't know for sure.
If so, it should be possible to stitch them together, producing one unified map for the whole country.
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Post by evergreenadam on Dec 26, 2019 20:43:36 GMT
Count data showed that Malden Manor was best Lib Dem ward in Kingston surprisingly. Were you at the count? A friend of a friend was. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Dec 26, 2019 20:48:18 GMT
A friend of a friend was. I heard we won Old Malden and lost both Chessingtons, but I am highly sceptical that Old Malden was our best Ward (or indeed especially close to being so). |
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Post by minionofmidas on Dec 26, 2019 20:56:31 GMT
While minority voters were certainly more likely to vote Labour than white ones in December,* it is important to note that Labour's percentage appears to have fallen at much the same rate amongst minorities as white voters. Of course as Labour clearly held up well enough some some minorities, it must have fallen harder than average with others. Which is obvious enough from certain results. Which minorities did the Labour vote hold up well for and which not so much? At first glance the map the Black, Bangladeshi and Pakistani areas look solid for Labour. The recent swing of Jewish voters to the Tories is well documented. Any similar swings with Indian or Chinese voters? Oh yes indeed. Have a look at Leicester... |
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Post by minionofmidas on Dec 26, 2019 20:58:01 GMT
The importance of ethnic minority voters in Labour's voter base I'm surprised Highgate is the most White ward in Camden. I thought it would be Frognal & Fitzjohns but it's lazy analysis to assume the bluest ward would be the most White. The map shows White British, not White. Major difference in the posher bits of Inner London, which are full of White Commonwealth and (non-voting) Western Europeans. |
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Dec 27, 2019 19:20:07 GMT
Which minorities did the Labour vote hold up well for and which not so much? At first glance the map the Black, Bangladeshi and Pakistani areas look solid for Labour. The recent swing of Jewish voters to the Tories is well documented. Any similar swings with Indian or Chinese voters? Oh yes indeed. Have a look at Leicester... Leicester East should be caveated for candidate related reasons... |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,028
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 27, 2019 19:43:08 GMT
Oh yes indeed. Have a look at Leicester... Leicester East should be caveated for candidate related reasons... Without that the movement there would not have been as extreme (would not have featured quite so many direct switchers), but would still have been pretty bad. Even BJP Barry saw a nasty slump in his percentage. |
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,054
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Post by jamie on Dec 27, 2019 19:48:55 GMT
Even BJP Barry saw a nasty slump in his percentage. “Vote BJP Barry for leader. The only candidate who can reconnect with Labour’s real traditional voters”. |
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Post by pepperminttea on Dec 31, 2019 1:51:09 GMT
How did you deal with Gauke in your calculations, and do you have him coming at all close in any wards? I'd take his vote to have been spread fairly evenly except being weak in South Oxhey and on the whole doing better and coming closer in the wards where the Lib Dems are strong, so the closest on that basis would be in Croxley Green, Chorleywood West and so on, but not particularly close. The reality may be very different of course - it's quite unhelpful that he stood and did so well to be honest Wouldn't he likely have done best in the Dacorum part of the seat (Tring/Berkhamsted) as those areas are likely to have been significantly better for Remain than the Three Rivers part? |
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Post by martinwhelton on Dec 31, 2019 7:59:39 GMT
A friend of a friend was. I heard we won Old Malden and lost both Chessingtons, but I am highly sceptical that Old Malden was our best Ward (or indeed especially close to being so). Many councils do provide ward count information as councils have increasingly counted elections by wards, they do however include postal votes from across the constituency which can sometimes skew the ward result especially if large numbers have been included. I would be shocked if Old Malden was the best performing Lib Dem ward and thought it would be more likely to be Grove or St Mark’s |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 31, 2019 10:08:04 GMT
I'd take his vote to have been spread fairly evenly except being weak in South Oxhey and on the whole doing better and coming closer in the wards where the Lib Dems are strong, so the closest on that basis would be in Croxley Green, Chorleywood West and so on, but not particularly close. The reality may be very different of course - it's quite unhelpful that he stood and did so well to be honest Wouldn't he likely have done best in the Dacorum part of the seat (Tring/Berkhamsted) as those areas are likely to have been significantly better for Remain than the Three Rivers part? Yes to an extent. My figures give him about 28% in the Dacorum part and 24% in the Three Rivers part but the difference would disappear if you were to disregard South Oxhey and I suspect that is also true of the relative Remain votes in the two areas. Apart from South Oxhey, the Leave vote in Three Rivers would have been strongest in Abbots Langley and Carpenders Park so the core of Thre Rivers based around Rickmansworth and Chorleywood would have been Remain to almost the same extent as Western Dacorum ( I would have thought that Berko was quite strongly Rermain, Tring a bit less so, Bovingdon perhaps not at all). Also as I mentioned on the SW Herts thread, Gauke is locally rooted in the Chorleywood-Ricky area so may have enjoyed a bit more of a personal vote there. But it's impossible to say of course without any canvassing data or tallies from the count. mattb may have some insights |
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