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Post by where2travel on Feb 28, 2020 15:59:11 GMT
What about somewhere like Prestbury, Macclesfield (>80% Tory)?
I know in local elections the Tories often get closer to 90% but they're also usually just two-candidate Labour/Conservative elections there. The inclusion of other parties in the General Election may well reduce the Tory share quite a bit so it's possibly not in the mix at all. Macclesfield is generally less good for the Tories these days, although it's probably not changed much for them in Prestbury.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 28, 2020 16:15:49 GMT
I've not done Cheshire yet, though it is on the request list. I should have thought though probably not quite
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,267
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Post by WJ on Feb 29, 2020 8:39:03 GMT
Are South Yorkshire and East Sussex the only English counties to feature four parties winning wards? Whilst acknowledging that it's not strictly 4 parties, I imagine Devon would have 3 parties and the independent, Claire Wright winning wards. Edit: also Nottinghamshire possibly? Would the Lib Dems have topped any wards in Rushcliffe? |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Feb 29, 2020 12:41:49 GMT
Are South Yorkshire and East Sussex the only English counties to feature four parties winning wards? Whilst acknowledging that it's not strictly 4 parties, I imagine Devon would have 3 parties and the independent, Claire Wright winning wards. Edit: also Nottinghamshire possibly? Would the Lib Dems have topped any wards in Rushcliffe? Claire Wright should just be considered a Lib Dem in not-very-convincing disguise. |
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Post by jonh on Mar 5, 2020 10:09:05 GMT
Could I put in plea for my native Derbyshire?  |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 5, 2020 10:32:29 GMT
Whilst acknowledging that it's not strictly 4 parties, I imagine Devon would have 3 parties and the independent, Claire Wright winning wards. Edit: also Nottinghamshire possibly? Would the Lib Dems have topped any wards in Rushcliffe? Claire Wright should just be considered a Lib Dem in not-very-convincing disguise. If she's a disguised anything, its surely Green? |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Mar 5, 2020 15:32:46 GMT
Claire Wright should just be considered a Lib Dem in not-very-convincing disguise. If she's a disguised anything, its surely Green? In terms of her impact on vote share, the Conservatives and Labour have been pretty much level in that constituency through the 2010s (especially when one considers that 2019 was the best for us and the worst for you nationally), the Greens have been absolutely nowhere when they have stood (2010, 2019), and the Lib Dems' vote (they used to be a decent second) seems to have leeched to Wright. Modelling her as some sort of Liberal Front of Judaea seems most appropriate. The pool of votes she is swimming in is a Lib Dem one. Goodness knows why they bothered putting up a candidate against her, given their attempts to save their monkey in shoddy alliances elsewhere. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Mar 5, 2020 16:14:45 GMT
If she's a disguised anything, its surely Green? In terms of her impact on vote share, the Conservatives and Labour have been pretty much level in that constituency through the 2010s (especially when one considers that 2019 was the best for us and the worst for you nationally), the Greens have been absolutely nowhere when they have stood (2010, 2019), and the Lib Dems' vote (they used to be a decent second) seems to have leeched to Wright. Modelling her as some sort of Liberal Front of Judaea seems most appropriate. The pool of votes she is swimming in is a Lib Dem one. Goodness knows why they bothered putting up a candidate against her, given their attempts to save their monkey in shoddy alliances elsewhere. If I had to come up with a reason, I'd guess it would be because being endorsed by a major party would likely make her no longer seem independent, thus reducing her appeal to traditionally Conservative voters (who might be persuaded to vote independent but not Lib Dem). |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 7, 2020 11:30:55 GMT
If she's a disguised anything, its surely Green? In terms of her impact on vote share, the Conservatives and Labour have been pretty much level in that constituency through the 2010s (especially when one considers that 2019 was the best for us and the worst for you nationally), the Greens have been absolutely nowhere when they have stood (2010, 2019), and the Lib Dems' vote (they used to be a decent second) seems to have leeched to Wright. Modelling her as some sort of Liberal Front of Judaea seems most appropriate. The pool of votes she is swimming in is a Lib Dem one. Goodness knows why they bothered putting up a candidate against her, given their attempts to save their monkey in shoddy alliances elsewhere. Obviously it is likely most of her support was previously LibDem, I am referring to her personal politics which seem very much "Green-lite". |
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Post by philipgraves on Nov 29, 2020 12:33:37 GMT
I've not done Cheshire yet, though it is on the request list. I should have thought though probably not quite Cheshire would be interesting. I would imagine Labour would have won Macclesfield Central, Macclefield South, Macclesfield Hurdsfield and Macclesfield West and Ivy. Not much different to 2017 apart from Broken Cross and Upton? Crewe in particular will be interesting. |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Mar 18, 2021 22:13:19 GMT
I'm surprised the Lib Dems didn't win a single ward in Hazel Grove. Less surprising is Cheadle which followed more recent local elections with the Lib Dems winning the Cheadle and Cheadle Hulme wards and the Tories winning the two Bramhall wards. I'm surprised John Leech didn't manage to win his own council seat or even have a significant higher LD share than other areas. |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on May 4, 2021 20:53:43 GMT
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Post by No Offence Alan on May 4, 2021 20:58:59 GMT
If only every council did this. |
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Post by afleitch on May 4, 2021 21:30:13 GMT
Good find! LeanTossup find Labour ahead in those three wards only. Baxter has them also ahead in Bentley and Darlaston North and Darlaston South. So good to be able to contrast with the real thing. |
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Post by bjornhattan on May 4, 2021 22:29:35 GMT
Good find! LeanTossup find Labour ahead in those three wards only. Baxter has them also ahead in Bentley and Darlaston North and Darlaston South. So good to be able to contrast with the real thing. Reading their methodology again, LeanTossup used race as a factor (with income/deprivation/social class seemingly not involved). In most constituencies that's probably not a very useful variable but in Walsall it very much is (particularly now we know the relatively wealthy, multicultural Paddock was pretty close while Labour collapsed in deprived heavily white wards). Perhaps that explains how they got their winners spot on? |
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on May 4, 2021 23:04:03 GMT
Do we know how they dealt with postal votes? Given Labour’s poor result in 2019 (particularly among the WWC in the Midlands) I can believe most of them, but the Paddock result sticks out as very surprising given Labour apparently came closer at the 2019 general election than they ever have at council elections since at least 1973, the last few council elections have seen more comfortable Conservatives wins, and it’s still majority white/not too middle class so should have seen a decent swing to the Conservatives (so if true then Labour must have won it in 2017?).
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 9, 2021 16:56:58 GMT
Unfortunately the link doesn't work any longer. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on May 9, 2021 16:58:17 GMT
It does for me
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 9, 2021 17:13:28 GMT
Ah - interesting. Have tried it once again, also via Google - without success. Must be my computer then. |
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