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Post by brianjrvs on Jan 30, 2020 20:21:56 GMT
Labour only carried two wards in Newcastle, but a few more in Stoke.
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Post by bjornhattan on Jan 30, 2020 20:30:21 GMT
Labour only carried two wards in Newcastle, but a few more in Stoke. For a second I thought you meant upon Tyne rather than under Lyme, which confused me. Actually, on the old boundaries, Labour may have swept Newcastle upon Tyne, but their winning margins in WWC wards like Denton and Walker will be far smaller than you'd ever expect. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2020 20:34:00 GMT
Staffs will be interesting. I wonder how many wards Labour carried in the county. Not many..     Fucking hell |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 30, 2020 21:28:50 GMT
Labour only carried two wards in Newcastle, but a few more in Stoke. Which wards? I imagine Keele was one of the Newcastle ones Bear in mind I've got the old ward boundaries in Stoke (now very old) so Labout would I imagine have carried some more of the smaller new wards |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jan 30, 2020 21:57:19 GMT
Labour only carried two wards in Newcastle, but a few more in Stoke. Which wards? I imagine Keele was one of the Newcastle ones Bear in mind I've got the old ward boundaries in Stoke (now very old) so Labout would I imagine have carried some more of the smaller new wards Then again, many parts of Stoke would have seen swings to an almost unprecedented degree. Electoral Caluculus estimated (before the by election) that Bentilee and Ubberley was about 87% Leave. That might have been a slight overestimate, but your notionals will certainly underestimate the Tories in a place like that. In Stafford, I'd be surprised if Labour held any wards - in Burton ditto barring perhaps Anglesey or Burton. Staffordshire wasn't that important in the General Election, but the few Labour wards left there will have all seen towering swings. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 31, 2020 5:53:51 GMT
Which wards? I imagine Keele was one of the Newcastle ones Bear in mind I've got the old ward boundaries in Stoke (now very old) so Labout would I imagine have carried some more of the smaller new wards Then again, many parts of Stoke would have seen swings to an almost unprecedented degree. Electoral Caluculus estimated (before the by election) that Bentilee and Ubberley was about 87% Leave. That might have been a slight overestimate, but your notionals will certainly underestimate the Tories in a place like that. In Stafford, I'd be surprised if Labour held any wards - in Burton ditto barring perhaps Anglesey or Burton. Staffordshire wasn't that important in the General Election, but the few Labour wards left there will have all seen towering swings. Staffordshire is quite important in the sense that the last time Labour won a general election in 2005 they won 9 out of the 12 seats, as they also did in 2001 and 1997. Some will say Labour don't need Staffordshire any more to win a majority but I think they'll still need to appeal to voters in the county to get anywhere in the future. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2020 9:21:02 GMT
Yes it's rather odd to think Labour could win a majority without Mansfield or Stoke South but here we are.
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pl
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Post by pl on Jan 31, 2020 9:29:42 GMT
Yes it's rather odd to think Labour could win a majority without Mansfield or Stoke South but here we are. At the risk of sounding flippant, the Conservatives managed a whopping majority without winning Canterbury... |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2020 9:35:50 GMT
Yes it's rather odd to think Labour could win a majority without Mansfield or Stoke South but here we are. At the risk of sounding flippant, the Conservatives managed a whopping majority without winning Canterbury... Indeed. And Labour won seats they didn't win in 1997. |
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Jan 31, 2020 10:10:46 GMT
Yes it's rather odd to think Labour could win a majority without Mansfield or Stoke South but here we are. They have to gain 124 for a majority and seat 124 is Glasgow North West. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jan 31, 2020 19:11:25 GMT
At the risk of sounding flippant, the Conservatives managed a whopping majority without winning Canterbury... Indeed. And Labour won seats they didn't win in 1997. Not many - Canterbury, Sheffield Hallam, Portsmouth South, Southwark & Bermondsey. Any others? |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 31, 2020 22:58:39 GMT
Yes it's rather odd to think Labour could win a majority without Mansfield or Stoke South but here we are. Well! We have jusrt won a large majority without Canterbury and Hove. Times change. |
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Post by edgbaston on Jan 31, 2020 23:03:08 GMT
Yes it's rather odd to think Labour could win a majority without Mansfield or Stoke South but here we are. Well! We have jusrt won a large majority without Canterbury and Hove. Times change. First post of the post European era! |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Feb 2, 2020 2:05:16 GMT
Indeed. And Labour won seats they didn't win in 1997. Not many - Canterbury, Sheffield Hallam, Portsmouth South, Southwark & Bermondsey. Any others? Birkenhead, Edgbaston, Vauxhall?  |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2020 13:22:09 GMT
It's notable how volatile Britain has been from 1979-2019 when compared with 1935-1979.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Feb 2, 2020 17:06:52 GMT
It's notable how volatile Britain has been from 1979-2019 when compared with 1935-1979.
The whole of Europe was unusually stable from 1945 to the mid 1980s; since then volatility, new nations, changing borders has been the norm. Our politics has just reflected that.
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Feb 7, 2020 9:06:40 GMT
Shropshire is probably too much to hope for, but is Cheshire on the cards at some point?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 16, 2020 10:58:08 GMT
Shropshire is probably too much to hope for, but is Cheshire on the cards at some point? Neither are very imminent for the simple reason that they are amongst the counties that I haven't got results from the previous two elections so I would be starting from scratch which makes for a much longer job. Additionally with these there is the problem with local government reorganisation leading to various ward boundary changes since the parliamentary constituencies were redrawn, meaning that the building blocks for the constituencies last had elections in 2007. It would take a fair bit of unpicking to work these all out. I will in due course though. In the meantime, there is a bit of Cheshire here..     |
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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 16, 2020 13:06:49 GMT
Shropshire is probably too much to hope for, but is Cheshire on the cards at some point? Neither are very imminent for the simple reason that they are amongst the counties that I haven't got results from the previous two elections so I would be starting from scratch which makes for a much longer job. Additionally with these there is the problem with local government reorganisation leading to various ward boundary changes since the parliamentary constituencies were redrawn, meaning that the building blocks for the constituencies last had elections in 2007. It would take a fair bit of unpicking to work these all out. I will in due course though. In the meantime, there is a bit of Cheshire here.. What was Labour's best percentage in Liverpool (and presumably the nation)? From the shading it looks like maybe Kirkdale, but I'd have possibly expected an even higher share in one of the Walton wards (though Walton is pretty homogenous so most wards will be close to 85% there, Riverside will vary more). |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 16, 2020 13:25:39 GMT
I have Everton on 88.3% and Kirkdale on 86.7% - Stockbridge is next on 86.2%
In Birmingham I have Labour on 86.9% in Aston and Washwood Heath 86.7%
The highest in London is Little Ilford (82.7%)
I've not done Greater Manchester yet
There's also potential for a very high figure in one or two of the Bradford wards
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