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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2020 19:13:44 GMT
Thank you for these excellent maps! Is there any chance you could do Gloucestershire? I would be interested to see if it matches some of my own impressions.     Unless I missed any other requests, it's Lancashire next then Hampshire Not forgetting that South Yorkshire was requested earlier but where I had reached an impasse. I will probably go ahead and do all the remaining Met counties after this as they are relatively straightforward to do (if in a couple of cases, not necessarily the most interesting) Thank you! No real shocks, although the fact that the LibDems failed to win more than one ward in Cirencester shows just how inept their campaign was. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 19, 2020 20:36:11 GMT
Unless I missed any other requests, it's Lancashire next then Hampshire Not forgetting that South Yorkshire was requested earlier but where I had reached an impasse. I will probably go ahead and do all the remaining Met counties after this as they are relatively straightforward to do (if in a couple of cases, not necessarily the most interesting) Thank you! No real shocks, although the fact that the LibDems failed to win more than one ward in Cirencester shows just how inept their campaign was. Yes, although it is not a 'fact' as such because it is speculative. My numbers have them carrying Cirencester Abbey by six votes so it's possible they failed to carry that (and therefore carried no wards) but is equally possible they carried more. Five of the other wards in the town had a Conservative margin lower than 5% and all were less than 10%. Overall the Conservative margin in the town as a whole is under 500, out of a majority of over 20,000 in the constituency as a whole |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 19, 2020 22:53:47 GMT
Staffs will be interesting. I wonder how many wards Labour carried in the county.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 21, 2020 20:59:29 GMT
I have done Avon for 2015 and 2017 which means it isn't too big a job to do it for the recent election. Its always an interesting area to do as well, so will be on the cards soon I'll add to the compliments on these excellent maps. Are you thinking of doing Lancashire?     |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2020 21:05:29 GMT
I'll add to the compliments on these excellent maps. Are you thinking of doing Lancashire? ooh |
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 21, 2020 22:34:10 GMT
Just wanted to add to the well-deserved lavish praise for these brilliant maps Pete Whitehead  |
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Post by lancastrian on Jan 21, 2020 23:45:13 GMT
I'll add to the compliments on these excellent maps. Are you thinking of doing Lancashire? I was going to say I was surprised to see two Labour wards in Darwen, but I think the old wards were safer than the new/current wards. How much have the Lib Dems got there? I am slightly surprised to see so many wards better for Labour than Daneshouse (Burnley). I'm not aware of the Tory candidate having any particular appeal there. How far were the Tories from a clean sweep in Rossendale? The maps would look nicer if Lindsay Hoyle hadn't gone and been elected Speaker . |
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Post by timrollpickering on Jan 22, 2020 1:34:14 GMT
Indeed how does your system cope with predicting Speaker vs Green vs wannabe Brexit Party?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 22, 2020 7:20:19 GMT
I was going to say I was surprised to see two Labour wards in Darwen, but I think the old wards were safer than the new/current wards. How much have the Lib Dems got there? They're on about 13% in Suddell and Whitehall (which I've just realised i coloured incorrectly on the map, shading Sunnyhurst instead) It's a function of the fact the Conservatives are generally so weak across the borough so the formula lifts them up everywhere. Also a bit of a residual Lib Dem vote there (from older elections) from whence most of the Tory vote comes. Almost certainly not the case now and I could probably do with editing the base data there. That said, all the wards where Labour share is higher are either demographically similar areas in Blackburn, Preston, Nelson etc or in Skelmersdale which is basically Merseyside They weren't very close to winning Stacksteads - I've no idea what that area is like so could be wrong. The difficulty in doing an area like this (even when compared to say Greater Manchester) is that I have very limited experience of visiting it and therefore can't get a feeling for the results in the way I can with areas I know on the ground, relying far more on the data Indeed - another strong argument for the Speaker not sitting for a normal constituency |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 25, 2020 11:40:48 GMT
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jan 27, 2020 13:20:23 GMT
Pete Whitehead If you have the time it would be great to see Northumberland/Tyne and Wear/Durham (however you're dividing them).
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Jan 27, 2020 16:29:20 GMT
Unless I missed any other requests, it's Lancashire next then Hampshire Not forgetting that South Yorkshire was requested earlier but where I had reached an impasse. I will probably go ahead and do all the remaining Met counties after this as they are relatively straightforward to do (if in a couple of cases, not necessarily the most interesting) Thank you! No real shocks, although the fact that the LibDems failed to win more than one ward in Cirencester shows just how inept their campaign was. Love the work you do with these Pete, but you've got the Cheltenham wards very wrong, the Tories absolutely mullered us in the West of Town (Springbank, Hesters Way, Benhall & Up Hatherley were all over 50% Con, a couple over 55% Con. We won Park & Lansdown in the centre, lost Oakley, and the east was pretty even. I can DM the ward by ward results to you if you'd like to use them in your future models? |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jan 27, 2020 16:53:52 GMT
Thank you! No real shocks, although the fact that the LibDems failed to win more than one ward in Cirencester shows just how inept their campaign was. Love the work you do with these Pete, but you've got the Cheltenham wards very wrong, the Tories absolutely mullered us in the West of Town (Springbank, Hesters Way, Benhall & Up Hatherley were all over 50% Con, a couple over 55% Con. We won Park & Lansdown in the centre, lost Oakley, and the east was pretty even. I can DM the ward by ward results to you if you'd like to use them in your future models? I'm not that surprised, but that seems a total realignment in the town from even just a few years ago. The likes of Springbank have always been safely Lib Dem locally, and so for them to go so decisively Conservative so quickly is remarkable. When I was a Lib Dem I went canvassing a couple of times in Cheltenham, and the sort of places where we were (the likes of St Paul's and the other central wards) must have delivered much more of the Lib Dem vote, even though at the time they seemed a lot shakier. Which reminds me, while I was glad politically to see Cheltenham stay Conservative, your candidate there this time essentially taught me how to canvass properly, so I was personally disappointed for him. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 28, 2020 9:04:13 GMT
Thank you! No real shocks, although the fact that the LibDems failed to win more than one ward in Cirencester shows just how inept their campaign was. Love the work you do with these Pete, but you've got the Cheltenham wards very wrong, the Tories absolutely mullered us in the West of Town (Springbank, Hesters Way, Benhall & Up Hatherley were all over 50% Con, a couple over 55% Con. We won Park & Lansdown in the centre, lost Oakley, and the east was pretty even. I can DM the ward by ward results to you if you'd like to use them in your future models? Strangely I didn't get notified about your quoting me and only saw this because I had a notification about someone else liking one of my posts. Anyway, yes I did wonder about this. There was quite a bit of levelling from the normal local patterns but clearly not enough. I notice the figures on EC come much closer to what you describe which suggests their model is superior to mine - they do use a 'Census Demography calculation' which probably does make things more accurate. Without doing something similar (which I don't really have time to do) there's always going to be some anomalies like this - I had the same problem with Carshalton. I think it does mostly only affect the Conservative/Lib Dem battlegrounds which fortunately (in more ways than one) are relatively few. I did wonder if a similar sitiuation existed in Bath where we also have the Lib Dems being traditionally strongest in the working class council estate areas in the west of the town. Would be very happy to see the results you have |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 28, 2020 9:11:34 GMT
Pete Whitehead If you have the time it would be great to see Northumberland/Tyne and Wear/Durham (however you're dividing them). Tyne & Wear will be straightforward enough to do. I have done Northumberland from previous elections so that can be done fairly easily, though they are on the 'new' ward boundaries which means you have wards split between different constituencies, contrary to my usual practice. I haven't done any work on Durham previously (it being previously not one of the most interesting counties) so that would need doing from scratch and will be tricky both because of the ward-splitting situation and the fairly patchy patterns of party participation in local elections. But somewhere I will get round to eventually, as I will everywhere I hope. I had planned to do the whole country following the 2015 election and didn't anticipate there would be a further two general elections before the next one was scheduled. Hopefully now we have a stable period where this will be possible. Durham is actually the first area that somneone has requested where I don't have any data from 2015/2017 |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jan 28, 2020 9:23:18 GMT
Pete Whitehead If you have the time it would be great to see Northumberland/Tyne and Wear/Durham (however you're dividing them). Tyne & Wear will be straightforward enough to do. I have done Northumberland from previous elections so that can be done fairly easily, though they are on the 'new' ward boundaries which means you have wards split between different constituencies, contrary to my usual practice. I haven't done any work on Durham previously (it being previously not one of the most interesting counties) so that would need doing from scratch and will be tricky both because of the ward-splitting situation and the fairly patchy patterns of party participation in local elections. But somewhere I will get round to eventually, as I will everywhere I hope. I had planned to do the whole country following the 2015 election and didn't anticipate there would be a further two general elections before the next one was scheduled. Hopefully now we have a stable period where this will be possible. Durham is actually the first area that somneone has requested where I don't have any data from 2015/2017 In Northumberland, the boundary changes were fortunately relatively minor. Only three wards are split between constituencies, and in all cases the split is very much one-sided (Ponteland North is almost all in Hexham, Pegswood is almost all in Wansbeck, Longhorsley is almost all in Berwick). Blyth Valley doesn't even split any wards at all. Durham as you rightly point out is harder, and the ward splits there are awful - especially immediately to the west of the city with Deerness and Esh & Witton Gilbert being the worst culprits. Some areas will be easier than others (North Durham and Darlington are basically straightforward from a quick glance, but NW looks to be a nightmare - and that's one of the most interesting seats in Britain this time round). |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2020 14:47:03 GMT
Love the work you do with these Pete, but you've got the Cheltenham wards very wrong, the Tories absolutely mullered us in the West of Town (Springbank, Hesters Way, Benhall & Up Hatherley were all over 50% Con, a couple over 55% Con. We won Park & Lansdown in the centre, lost Oakley, and the east was pretty even. I can DM the ward by ward results to you if you'd like to use them in your future models? and only saw this because I had a notification about someone else liking one of my posts. Anyway, yes I did wonder about this. There was quite a bit of levelling from the normal local patterns but clearly not enough. I notice the figures on EC come much closer to what you describe which suggests their model is superior to mine - they do use a 'Census Demography calculation' which probably does make things more accurate. Without doing something similar (which I don't really have time to do) there's always going to be some anomalies like this - I had the same problem with Carshalton. I think it does mostly only affect the Conservative/Lib Dem battlegrounds which fortunately (in more ways than one) are relatively few. I did wonder if a similar sitiuation existed in Bath where we also have the Lib Dems being traditionally strongest in the working class council estate areas in the west of the town. Would be very happy to see the results you have I think he quoted me quoting you rather than quoting you directly |
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 28, 2020 21:04:31 GMT
Strangely I didn't get notified about your quoting me and only saw this because I had a notification about someone else liking one of my posts. Anyway, yes I did wonder about this. There was quite a bit of levelling from the normal local patterns but clearly not enough. I notice the figures on EC come much closer to what you describe which suggests their model is superior to mine - they do use a 'Census Demography calculation' which probably does make things more accurate. Without doing something similar (which I don't really have time to do) there's always going to be some anomalies like this - I had the same problem with Carshalton. I think it does mostly only affect the Conservative/Lib Dem battlegrounds which fortunately (in more ways than one) are relatively few. I did wonder if a similar sitiuation existed in Bath where we also have the Lib Dems being traditionally strongest in the working class council estate areas in the west of the town. Would be very happy to see the results you have I think he quoted me quoting you rather than quoting you directly Quoting Me Quoting You, A ha! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 30, 2020 19:22:09 GMT
Staffs will be interesting. I wonder how many wards Labour carried in the county. Not many..     |
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Post by froome on Jan 30, 2020 20:01:32 GMT
So Labour carried more wards in Hampshire than in Staffordshire...
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