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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 25, 2020 21:27:03 GMT
Marvellous work as always - I can't see any other ward exceeding Monk Bretton when it comes to Brexit Party support (I doubt they'll win anywhere in Hartlepool, though I suspect they'll come second everywhere because the Conservative vote will be very concentrated in Rural West).
What did you use for establishing base figures for them? I presume the past UKIP vote came into it, but did you use anything else?
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Feb 25, 2020 21:31:29 GMT
I think that’s Conservative 11 wards in Rotherham to Labour’s 10. Conservative gain Rotherham Council in May. 😉
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Post by AdminSTB on Feb 25, 2020 21:50:40 GMT
I think that’s Conservative 11 wards in Rotherham to Labour’s 10. Conservative gain Rotherham Council in May. 😉 It will be very interesting to see what happens there because it's a whole council election and the Conservatives currently have no councillors at all - although they did in the not too distant past. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Feb 25, 2020 22:16:57 GMT
I think that’s Conservative 11 wards in Rotherham to Labour’s 10. Conservative gain Rotherham Council in May. 😉 It will be very interesting to see what happens there because it's a whole council election and the Conservatives currently have no councillors at all - although they did in the not too distant past. It will. They ought to pick up a couple of wards. I’d be surprised if they win many more than that, but who knows. |
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Post by hallamshire on Feb 25, 2020 23:53:13 GMT
Are South Yorkshire and East Sussex the only English counties to feature four parties winning wards?
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Post by evergreenadam on Feb 26, 2020 19:19:07 GMT
Are South Yorkshire and East Sussex the only English counties to feature four parties winning wards? The contrast between the stength of the Tory vote in Pennistone and Stocksbridge and the strength of the Brexit Party vote in Barnsley is interesting. They just couldn’t bring themselves to vote Tory in Barnsley. Might that be an indicator of where Labour will regain its lost voters fastest? |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Feb 27, 2020 9:01:01 GMT
Are South Yorkshire and East Sussex the only English counties to feature four parties winning wards?
South Yorkshire has 7 different parties (groups) winning wards.
BIG (Barnsley Independent Group)
Brexit Party (elected as UKIP) Conservatives Democrats and Veterans
Green Labour
Liberal Democrats
👽
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Post by greenchristian on Feb 27, 2020 12:07:49 GMT
Are South Yorkshire and East Sussex the only English counties to feature four parties winning wards?
South Yorkshire has 7 different parties (groups) winning wards.
BIG (Barnsley Independent Group)
Brexit Party (elected as UKIP) Conservatives Democrats and Veterans
Green Labour
Liberal Democrats
👽
You appear to be confusing council results (where there can't be many counties which don't have at least four parties with at least one seat at either district or county level) with Pete's notional ward results.
As for hallamshire's original question,it's difficult to identify any other obvious options unless you're counting Independents as a party (in which case, maybe Devon?). You'd expect there to be at least one Green ward in Bristol West, but the Lib Dem voteshare in the other constituencies in Bristol was low enough that you wouldn't expect there to be a Lib Dem ward. It's not impossible for there to be at least one Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, and Green ward in counties with large numbers of very small wards where the Green vote was significantly higher than the national average (somewhere like, say, Herefordshire), but it seems unlikely (since such areas were mostly conservative seats, there won't be a Brexit Party vote there). And, in any case, the places where this could be the case are more difficult to do notionals for, since local election results feature fewer parties. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 27, 2020 12:14:46 GMT
South Yorkshire has 7 different parties (groups) winning wards.
BIG (Barnsley Independent Group)
Brexit Party (elected as UKIP) Conservatives Democrats and Veterans
Green Labour
Liberal Democrats 👽
You appear to be confusing council results (where there can't be many counties which don't have at least four parties with at least one seat at either district or county level) with Pete's notional ward results. As for hallamshire's original question,it's difficult to identify any other obvious options unless you're counting Independents as a party (in which case, maybe Devon?). You'd expect there to be at least one Green ward in Bristol West, but the Lib Dem voteshare in the other constituencies in Bristol was low enough that you wouldn't expect there to be a Lib Dem ward. It's not impossible for there to be at least one Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, and Green ward in counties with large numbers of very small wards where the Green vote was significantly higher than the national average (somewhere like, say, Herefordshire), but it seems unlikely (since such areas were mostly conservative seats, there won't be a Brexit Party vote there). And, in any case, the places where this could be the case are more difficult to do notionals for, since local election results feature fewer parties. No you wouldn't. The Greens were nearly 40% behind Labour in Bristol West and their support is spread pretty thinly across the constituency - it's not as if it would have been concentrated in one or two wards. As far as Devon goes, the Independent almost certainly would have carried a ward or two (presumably in her home area) but it is moot whether this counts as a 'party'. More to the point, it's slightly doubtful that the Lib Dems carried any wards in Devon. I suppose it's possible that their support was sufficiently concentrated in Totnes town to carry a ward there but they were pretty far behind in North Devon with again a fairly even spread of support across the constituency it's unlikey they carried anything even in Barnstaple |
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Post by minionofmidas on Feb 27, 2020 12:22:06 GMT
South Yorkshire has 7 different parties (groups) winning wards.
BIG (Barnsley Independent Group)
Brexit Party (elected as UKIP) Conservatives Democrats and Veterans
Green Labour
Liberal Democrats
👽
You appear to be confusing council results (where there can't be many counties which don't have at least four parties with at least one seat at either district or county level) with Pete's notional ward results.
I would assume he confused things on purpose in order to confuse others. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Feb 27, 2020 12:22:08 GMT
South Yorkshire has 7 different parties (groups) winning wards.
BIG (Barnsley Independent Group)
Brexit Party (elected as UKIP) Conservatives Democrats and Veterans
Green Labour
Liberal Democrats
👽
You appear to be confusing council results (where there can't be many counties which don't have at least four parties with at least one seat at either district or county level) with Pete's notional ward results.
As for hallamshire 's original question,it's difficult to identify any other obvious options unless you're counting Independents as a party (in which case, maybe Devon?). You'd expect there to be at least one Green ward in Bristol West, but the Lib Dem voteshare in the other constituencies in Bristol was low enough that you wouldn't expect there to be a Lib Dem ward. It's not impossible for there to be at least one Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, and Green ward in counties with large numbers of very small wards where the Green vote was significantly higher than the national average (somewhere like, say, Herefordshire), but it seems unlikely (since such areas were mostly conservative seats, there won't be a Brexit Party vote there). And, in any case, the places where this could be the case are more difficult to do notionals for, since local election results feature fewer parties. I did initially.
By accident I think I've highlighted a weakness in notional results as it seems to underrepresent / ignore little parties who win here and there.
👽
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 27, 2020 12:26:53 GMT
You appear to be confusing council results (where there can't be many counties which don't have at least four parties with at least one seat at either district or county level) with Pete's notional ward results. As for hallamshire 's original question,it's difficult to identify any other obvious options unless you're counting Independents as a party (in which case, maybe Devon?). You'd expect there to be at least one Green ward in Bristol West, but the Lib Dem voteshare in the other constituencies in Bristol was low enough that you wouldn't expect there to be a Lib Dem ward. It's not impossible for there to be at least one Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, and Green ward in counties with large numbers of very small wards where the Green vote was significantly higher than the national average (somewhere like, say, Herefordshire), but it seems unlikely (since such areas were mostly conservative seats, there won't be a Brexit Party vote there). And, in any case, the places where this could be the case are more difficult to do notionals for, since local election results feature fewer parties. I did initially.
By accident I think I've highlighted a weakness in notional results as it seems to underrepresent / ignore little parties who win here and there. 👽
Which wards do you think the Democrats and Veterans or the Barnsley Independent group might have carried in the General election? As it happens, the councillor who was elected for the D&Vs in Monk Bretton last May (now sitting as an Independent) was the Brexit party candidate in Barnsley Central |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Feb 27, 2020 12:35:35 GMT
I did initially.
By accident I think I've highlighted a weakness in notional results as it seems to underrepresent / ignore little parties who win here and there. 👽
Which wards do you think the Democrats and Veterans or the Barnsley Independent group might have carried in the General election? As it happens, the councillor who was elected for the D&Vs in Monk Bretton last May (now sitting as an Independent) was the Brexit party candidate in Barnsley Central
Under Boris Johnson none, fine I guess I was extrapolating more generally not to this general election, my bad.
Under Theresa May, that would have been a different question.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 27, 2020 12:47:02 GMT
Only three parties would have carried wards in South Yorkshire in 2017.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Feb 27, 2020 12:50:34 GMT
Only three parties would have carried wards in South Yorkshire in 2017.
I was thinking more on the lines of a 2019 Theresa May election, this was of course never actually on the cards, I was thinking hypothetically.
Lets wrap it up before this thread goes to far off course.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2020 13:38:56 GMT
Are South Yorkshire and East Sussex the only English counties to feature four parties winning wards? I thought Gauke may have won a ward or two but no. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 27, 2020 19:56:34 GMT
Depending on the exact boundaries you use for the county, County Durham might have just seen four parties winning wards. In addition to the Conservatives and Labour who both won many wards, Fens and Rossmere may have gone for the Brexit Party and one of the Durham wards (possibly Neville's Cross?) might have just gone Lib Dem.
The latter two are long shots, especially for the Lib Dems. But they're both plausible - they will have seen the Conservatives and Labour relatively close, allowing a third party to win with just 35%.
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Feb 27, 2020 20:03:57 GMT
I have Everton on 88.3% and Kirkdale on 86.7% - Stockbridge is next on 86.2% In Birmingham I have Labour on 86.9% in Aston and Washwood Heath 86.7% The highest in London is Little Ilford (82.7%) I've not done Greater Manchester yet There's also potential for a very high figure in one or two of the Bradford wards What Tory wards across the country do have >80% vote? |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Feb 28, 2020 0:03:09 GMT
Depending on the exact boundaries you use for the county, County Durham might have just seen four parties winning wards... one of the Durham wards (possibly Neville's Cross?) might have just gone Lib Dem. The latter two are long shots, especially for the Lib Dems. But they're both plausible - they will have seen the Conservatives and Labour relatively close, allowing a third party to win with just 35%. I can see where you’re coming from but I think it’s a stretch too far when they only got 16% of the vote constituency wide. They will do much better in the city itself but that’s 1/2 the constituency so if they were averaging even 30% in the city then they would be on 2% outside it. More realistically, they would have been on 20-25% across the city and up to 30% in their best wards (possibly Framwellgate, which is purely middle class owner occupier and no general election voting students). All that said, if the Lib Dem’s ever do win wards in Durham it will be in the city itself. It’s a natural Lib Dem area; way too middle class to be comfortably Labour but way too culturally liberal to be comfortably Tory. Pretty much all of it will have voted Labour in 2017 and I doubt the Tory vote rose there in 2019, leading to as you say some very low winning vote shares for any party. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 28, 2020 8:07:24 GMT
I have Everton on 88.3% and Kirkdale on 86.7% - Stockbridge is next on 86.2% In Birmingham I have Labour on 86.9% in Aston and Washwood Heath 86.7% The highest in London is Little Ilford (82.7%) I've not done Greater Manchester yet There's also potential for a very high figure in one or two of the Bradford wards What Tory wards across the country do have >80% vote? I don't have my figures to hand but from recent memory, I think Harewood was just over 80% (though I suspect the results in Elmet & Rothwell may have been a little bit more even than I have them). There were one or two small rural wards in Staffordshire. Pretty sure there was nothing in London or any of the other Met boroughs. Obviously I haven't done Essex or Lincolnshire yet - I expect they'll be a fair few there |
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